Melendez - Pettis

Question

Hi, I&#x27;m not a sharp mma bettor but i thought we could start a discussion on this fight.  cya guys...  Only consideration for me is Melendez dog play

jackal4422 · Answer

Hi, I&#x27;m not a sharp mma bettor but i thought we could start a discussion on this fight.  cya guys...  Only consideration for me is Melendez dog play

NeverMind · Answer

El Nino is worth a shot as a 2:1 underdog against Showtime. Both fighters haven&#x27;t fought in over a year. Gilbert or no play for me as well.

McDoc · Answer

The winner of the fight is a no play for me.

I'm still considering a combination of prop bets, though. Basically, I think Pettis has a decent shot at winning early. El Nino is a master of grinding out decisions, though, and Showtime is as bad at earning points on the cards as he is good at finding highlight-reel finishes.

The most appealing combo in my mind is:

Pettis in round 1 (+625) & Melendez by UD (+375). Weighted equally, the combo bet is +187.

You could think of this is a bet on Gil to dominate with a hedge against Pettis pulling off something miraculous. Showtime has pulled that off three fights in a row, albeit over a span of years. I think his chances of doing it again are probably more like 25-30%, especially since he should realize that grinding out a decision is El Nino's best game plan.

A more conservative approach based on this same logic would be to add a smaller bet on Pettis in round 2 or to switch the bet on Gil to a win by any decision. Either of these would push the bet near even money, which doesn't sound so appealing.

I am well aware that combinations of MMA props are usually a bad idea, since the juice is higher than on straight MMA bets. I'm hoping that this matchup is unusual enough to compensate for the extra juice.

jackal4422 · Answer

thx , i&#x27;m going to continue looking into it further

jackal4422 · Answer

Leaning no play on this fight.   Looking into Lawler @ 2.8 odds as something I feel is better value.

jackal4422 · Answer

No idea about the outcomes of either these two fights.

jackal4422 · Answer

And.... I&#x27;ve decided there is no way that I&#x27;m betting against Anthony Pettis.  This guy is a straight up ninja.   No two ways to go about saying this..

OnTheO · Answer

Pettis wins this one. Gil&#x27;s best path to victory is by playing Frankie to Cub. The problem is that Gil is not as quick as Frankie, he doesn&#x27;t mix up his strikes with takedowns as well, he doesn&#x27;t have the same top control pressure and Anthony&#x27;s striking is much too diverse for Gil to last standing in front of him. Pettis lost to Clay Guida a few years ago so he went and did the smartest thing possible - he recruited one of the best mma wrestlers we&#x27;ve ever seen in Ben Askren to come to his camp. Also, Gil loses fights late. He dropped round 3 to Diego in his last one out, and out of the 6 rounds 4&amp;5 (3 total fights) he fought against Josh Thomson, he lost 5 of them. I lean Pettis to finish. Good luck

OnTheO · Answer

He also lost 3, 4, and 5 to Benson in their fight on the scorecards.

Melendez - Pettis

Hot Forum Topics