Posted:
#1
Interesting match-up on this card that I feel both the public and books are analyzing incorrectly.
Rivera is considered one of the pound for pound hardest hitters in the sport by those who closely follow the lower weight classes. You may remember him icing George Roop and more recently Bruce Leroy but this is a guy who's been causing seizures with his punching power since he started.
In his second to last fight against all time FW/BW great Urijah Faber he was-to most everyone's great surprise-handily outstriking Faber on the feet and effectively maintaining distance to avoid any tie-ups on the ground. Flash to an illegal eyepoke that the referee did not see, and he is quickly caught in a Faber bulldog choke whilst clearly visually impaired and appealing to the ref.
Lineker on the other hand, has a similar reputation that is perhaps less deserved but more well known. "Hands of stone" hasn't really been knocking the flyweights he has faced in his career clean unconscious, he is more about the crash home solid punches mentality and cause your opponent to wilt under the pressure, because of the extreme physical advantages he had at his original weight, Lineker has had fairly significant success doing this. He was certainly not favored to win his last fight against perennial top flyweight contender Ian McCall; he did so, but not without missing weight by four pounds(fairly significant at such a light weight) and being mandated by the UFC to move up a weight class.
Lineker's problems were still present in his decision victory over Ian McCall, no one sensible gave him round one, Ian boxed effectively and was largely able to avoid the cracking punches from Lineker. Body shots added up by the late second, but anyone who knows McCall well knows he's liable to suffer a mental breakdown in the cage, this fight was no different.
The biggest and most obvious reason I like Rivera in this match is the size disparity between the two fighters, and the fact Lineker has, for his whole career, fought men of comparable height and smaller structure. Rivera will be roughly 5 1/2 inches taller come fight night and likely a fair bit heavier, Francisco is a professional about his weightcut, and while Lineker is moving up, he is a repeat offender, and we all know what happened to Anthony Johnson when he moved to 185.
That being said- Rivera ML +105. Tail if you want/bet what you will
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