Posted:
#1
was going to take the -125 not lombard inside the distance prop but realized that it's not that great of a deal.
The dealbreaker for me is that i don't see lombard getting a knockout because shields has shown to have a really good chin. I know that ellenberger got a tko in 2011 against him but many have argued the fight was stopped early. Plus shields father passed away just before that fight happened. Shields record shows that he knows how to do well against very good strikers. 30 out of 37 of his fights either go to decision or he wins by submission, that's 81% right there. lombard on the other hand has never fought a good wrestler like shields.
the problem i see with lombard is that he has big muscles, he has shown that he gasses out, and this is his 2nd time at welterweight. shields on the other hand has very good cardio and is really good at recovering from big strikes. Don't forget that shields has beaten a middleweight/light heavy weight in dan henderson. He survived a big first round and then controlled him on the ground for the other 4 rounds. Marquardt chin was not good enough to survive the first round against lombard but shields to me is the very best that i have ever seen at shooting for takedowns with no setups from strikes. He just tries to get in the clinch and wrestle fukk his opponent to the ground and i think this can work best outside of the first round. I can see lombard tiring out as the fight goes longer but if he's smart, he can use his striking to pick shields apart, keep it standing, but he's not going to be able to knock shields out.
melendez, nate diaz, nick diaz and jake shields all have pride with regards to their chin, and not getting knocked out much. shields is also getting older but this is gambling so you're going to take a chance somewhere.
The only way i will lose money is if shields gets ko'ed/tko, a no contest happens, lombard gets a submission (no way) or a draw:
+320 (4.20) 1 unit = shields wins by decision (1.2 unit profit if this happens)
+550 (6.50) 1 unit = shields wins inside distance (3.5 unit profit if this happens)
+375 (4.75) 1 unit = lombard wins decision (1.75 unit profit if this happens)
why are the odds showing that the fight will start the 2rd round at -205? that alone should tell you something about no lombard knockout in the first round because jake shields has a very good chin. To me if lombard is going to do anything in this matchup, it's gotta be in the first round which i am betting against.
I think there is a good chance that shields will submit hector lombard but i just figured it's worth buying 35 cents on the fact that he might possibly get a tko or something in his favor too.
lombard -220 to win the fight against shields just does not look right to me.
0
which way will shields circle vs lombard ? doesn't matter he's going to circle himself into a KO...plain and simple......imo
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