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#1
team alpha male is really good at is covering the chalky looking spreads that are -300 and higher even though there is the threat that 1 can be a parlay buster if you keep betting them over a period of time. castillo, benavidez, faber, and mendes are all fighting on this card.
castillo has been a -160 or higher favorite around fight time in 5 of his 16 fights and he has won all 5 times. in his last 7 fights, castillo has been near even money or an underdog in 4 fights. he won against john cholish and paul sass, lost against michael johnson and jacob volkmann. so, +245 on castillo is not a good idea, -290 for barboza is an excellent bet.
mendes has been a -300 or higher favorite in 10 of his fights and he has won 5 of them by unanimous decision, 1 by submission, and the last 4 from punches. mendes is currently at -900 not worth any risk here, but i would definitely go against him the next time he's an underdog, if he fights aldo again, i would bet every single little penny that i could afford to lose against him.
faber has been a -173 or higher in 11 of his last 15 fights and the only 1 time that he has lost in those 11 was against mike brown the first time as a -451 favorite. 4 times faber has been the underdog: against barao +160, cruz +170, aldo +285, and brown +105 the 2nd time, and has lost all 4 times.
the past history against faber has shown that a good striker has the chance to beat him. the -173 was against brian bowles (known as a good striker), faber managed to get the guillotine choke. he also beat eddie wineland who is also known as a good striker but wineland's ground game is not good enough. mcdonald does not necessarily need a knockout. all mcdonald has to do is hit faber with 1 or 2 very clean, flush shots, or more, while it may not knock faber out, it's going to make him break and lower his confidence. He can get put in desperation mode and start going for sloppy looking takedowns or just get picked apart. i might also say that faber will get cut or injured and not be able to mentally overcome it. It's like some of the top tennis players in the world who are the best, but once they lose the first set, they are not mentally capable of coming back against evenly matched opponents. Mcdonald +120 is an excellent bet right now but if faber is an underdog by fight time, i'd put even more money on mcdonald.
benavidez vs johnson is a little tough to pick. benavidez last 14 fights, just 2 he has been an underdog, +305 vs miguel torres (won), and +160 the 2nd time vs dominick cruz (loss). in the other 12 fights he's been at -170 or higher as a favorite and has won 5 unanimous decisions, 2 by chokes, and 4 by strikes. the 1 loss was against johnson as a -254 favorite.
Demetrious Johnson being a +226 underdog the first time vs benavidez and i have come to the conclusion that team alpha male does not fare very well in big fights, tough times when they have to overcome being an underdog or something close to even odds. tj dillashaw lost to a flyweight in a the fight that was to crown the ultimate fighter of that season which went to john dodson. chris holdsworth won a shitty season of men in which 2 fights didn't happen because 1 guy didn't make weight, half of the other cast were girls, and overall that was too easy of a season for him.
If i had to pick, i would say johnson at -140 because of the tracking record of a team alpha male fighter as an underdog but i wouldn't bet it.
the fight odds that i have used in this research were from bestfightodds.com and i used the odds that were the closest to the start time of the fight, FYI.
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