Posted:
#1
I had a much better showing last night as compared to the first few
posts I had on here. I'm still mad about the Rousey loss lol. I'm hoping
to do well this weekend and finish the year out strong. As I stated
last night, there are UFC events Thursday/Friday/Saturday,
so there is a lot of action on the board. Last night I loved a lot of
the match-ups and played several of them with confidence. Tonight feels a
little different. It's a TUF Finale, which means it's a card full of
some garbage fighters that likely have no future in the UFC. Don't get
me wrong, there are some awesome fights, including Tony Ferguson/Edson
Barboza and Frankie Edgar/Chad Mendes. In fact, I think the Edgar/Mendes
fight is one of the best non-title main events the UFC has ever had up
to this point. Very excited to see that one play out. But to be honest,
from a betting perspective, this card blows. As much as I love betting
on fights and enjoy the action while I'm watching an event, I've learned
that there is no reason to force bets that I'm not very confident in.
So let's get down to what I do like tonight:
First off, I don't have any "big bets" tonight. There are no fighters on this particular card that I feel 100% confident in. The only thing I'm pretty confident in, is that the Gonzaga/Erokhin fight will end early. Some books may not offer the "Under 3 Rounds" option, but 5Dimes does. Also, please note that one of my plays is actually betting on the fight 'Under 2 Rounds." Just wanted to make sure to point that out and assure you it's not a misprint. If you don't have that option to choose from, then you could still possibly consider the "Under 1½," which is priced around -195. I personally think this fight won't get out of the 1st round, so I would obviously support a play on that as well if you're stuck with that option.
Tony Ferguson vs. Edson Barboza should be a fun and exciting striking affair. Barboza has devastating kicks and is a good technical striker. However, Ferguson is a great pressure fighter and will likely look to close the distance, which is something Barboza has struggled with in the past. Ferguson has somewhat of an unorthodox method of throwing strikes and keeping his opponent guessing, as well as having some sneaky power compared to his body frame. I also believe that Barboza's striking defense can be a bit shaky at times and he doesn't necessarily have an iron chin. I expect Ferguson to feel things out a bit at first, start to pressure Barboza and get inside, look for the clinch and maybe even try to take Barboza down. I think Ferguson either knocks Barboza down with a punch or takes him down in the traditional way. Either way, I see this fight going in Ferguson's favor, either by a late stoppage or a decision.
Kawajiri gets lucky and doesn't have to face Misrad Bektic, who likely would have dismantled him. Instead, he gets late notice replacement Jason Knight, which is a much more favorable match-up for him. Knight is a submission specialist but I think he's going to have his work cut out for him in this one. Kawajiri will likely take Knight down and potentially snag a submission of his own at some point. Otherwise, I see Kawajiri winning a pretty clear decision. Regardless, he's worthy of a medium-sized bet.
Finally, I'm placing a small bet on Ryan LaFlare and Konstantin Erokhin respectively. Pierce is coming off a very long layoff after having his leg ripped off by Rousimar Palhares. Both of these guys are kind of boring fighters and are somewhat of grinders. I think LaFlare will simply be a little better everywhere that Pierce's strenghts are. This will likely be a boring fight. This is definitely not a super confident bet, but one that is worth the small risk in my opinion. Erokhin and Gonzaga, as I mentioned earlier, are likely not going to be fighting for too long in their bout. As with any heavyweight fight, all it takes is 1 punch and it's over. Gonzaga certainly has some power and if he were to somehow take Erokhin down, he could potentially submit him or at least control him on the mat. However, Erokhin has MASSIVE power, even for a heavyweight, and Gonzaga's chin isn't the best. The way I see this one playing out is Erokhin stuffing any takedown attempts, and keeping it on the feet just long enough to land a bomb on Gonzaga and put his lights out. I think it will be quick too. I see Erokhin is currently listed at -120, but 5Dimes offers an "In The Distance" prop of +100. You could even get the TKO/KO prop at +115. I personally see Erokhin's only path to victory being a stoppage, so I'm going to take the better odds at +100. I still recommend a play on him at -120 if you don't have those props. Again, since it's a heavyweight fight, it's too risky to bet too much on either guy, so don't get carried away.
First off, I don't have any "big bets" tonight. There are no fighters on this particular card that I feel 100% confident in. The only thing I'm pretty confident in, is that the Gonzaga/Erokhin fight will end early. Some books may not offer the "Under 3 Rounds" option, but 5Dimes does. Also, please note that one of my plays is actually betting on the fight 'Under 2 Rounds." Just wanted to make sure to point that out and assure you it's not a misprint. If you don't have that option to choose from, then you could still possibly consider the "Under 1½," which is priced around -195. I personally think this fight won't get out of the 1st round, so I would obviously support a play on that as well if you're stuck with that option.
Tony Ferguson vs. Edson Barboza should be a fun and exciting striking affair. Barboza has devastating kicks and is a good technical striker. However, Ferguson is a great pressure fighter and will likely look to close the distance, which is something Barboza has struggled with in the past. Ferguson has somewhat of an unorthodox method of throwing strikes and keeping his opponent guessing, as well as having some sneaky power compared to his body frame. I also believe that Barboza's striking defense can be a bit shaky at times and he doesn't necessarily have an iron chin. I expect Ferguson to feel things out a bit at first, start to pressure Barboza and get inside, look for the clinch and maybe even try to take Barboza down. I think Ferguson either knocks Barboza down with a punch or takes him down in the traditional way. Either way, I see this fight going in Ferguson's favor, either by a late stoppage or a decision.
Kawajiri gets lucky and doesn't have to face Misrad Bektic, who likely would have dismantled him. Instead, he gets late notice replacement Jason Knight, which is a much more favorable match-up for him. Knight is a submission specialist but I think he's going to have his work cut out for him in this one. Kawajiri will likely take Knight down and potentially snag a submission of his own at some point. Otherwise, I see Kawajiri winning a pretty clear decision. Regardless, he's worthy of a medium-sized bet.
Finally, I'm placing a small bet on Ryan LaFlare and Konstantin Erokhin respectively. Pierce is coming off a very long layoff after having his leg ripped off by Rousimar Palhares. Both of these guys are kind of boring fighters and are somewhat of grinders. I think LaFlare will simply be a little better everywhere that Pierce's strenghts are. This will likely be a boring fight. This is definitely not a super confident bet, but one that is worth the small risk in my opinion. Erokhin and Gonzaga, as I mentioned earlier, are likely not going to be fighting for too long in their bout. As with any heavyweight fight, all it takes is 1 punch and it's over. Gonzaga certainly has some power and if he were to somehow take Erokhin down, he could potentially submit him or at least control him on the mat. However, Erokhin has MASSIVE power, even for a heavyweight, and Gonzaga's chin isn't the best. The way I see this one playing out is Erokhin stuffing any takedown attempts, and keeping it on the feet just long enough to land a bomb on Gonzaga and put his lights out. I think it will be quick too. I see Erokhin is currently listed at -120, but 5Dimes offers an "In The Distance" prop of +100. You could even get the TKO/KO prop at +115. I personally see Erokhin's only path to victory being a stoppage, so I'm going to take the better odds at +100. I still recommend a play on him at -120 if you don't have those props. Again, since it's a heavyweight fight, it's too risky to bet too much on either guy, so don't get carried away.
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