Posted:
#1
YTD Record:
Overall: 62-49-1, +86.90 units 
UFC: 50-42-1, +55.00 units
Strikeforce: 12-7, +31.90 units
Final 2010 Record: 115-119-3, +11.25 Units
Final 2009 Record: 80-82-1, +23.75 Units
It has been shockingly quite in the MMA forum over the last few days. I wonder if it is because people are struggling capping this event or perhaps it is simply a brutal card no one has any interest in? 
I must admit that personally, this has been one of the most difficult cards to cap in quite a while, but I have to stick to my MMA model that has been very profitable for me lately, even though some of the fighters that I am on tonight will not be very popular amongst the forum.
Remeber, only gamble what you are willing and can afford to lose, especially on Play #1...
1. My first 10 star dog of the year is on Tito Ortiz (+350) over Rashad Evans. Risking 10 units to win 35 units. There are too many factors going against Rashad tonight IMO, including:
A) Distraction over the Jon Jones situation.
B) His split from the Jackson camp.
C) Long injury lay-off.
D) Suspect cardio in his last two fights, especially in the 3rd rounds against Thiago Silva and Rampage Jackson, which will not likely get better after such a long layoff.
E) Failure to stick with the game plan in his last two fights.
F) Overconfidence.
It is hard to truly know where Tito is at this point. Is he finally healthy and back to being his dominant self? Was his win over Bader a total fluke?
All I know is that I cashed in on Tito last month against Bader with his back against the wall. He looked amazing at the UFC 132 weigh-ins, and delivered an amazing performance. He looked awsome again yesterday at the weigh-ins. He looked considerably bigger and stronger than Rashad. He also has the confidence knowing that if he had not had a point deducted, he would have beaten Rashad 4 years ago when they first met. I know a lot has changed for both fighters over the last 4 years, but I think Ortiz is in a better place mentally at the moment, and really has nothing to lose. Can you imagine what a dominant first round for Tito will do for the mental state of both fighters? Bottom line, I think the line on this fight is completely out of whack. Most of the significant criteria in my capping model points toward Tito. Therefore, I am going to stick with my numbers and pound this line.
Have some beers and watch some fights with your pals = pretty good darn saturday! 
, Mendes 
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