UFC 153 plays

2012 MMA YTD: -40.1u

Erick Silva -125
5u to win 4u

Dave Herman +250
4u to win 10u

Dave Herman ITD +412
1u to win 4.12u

A. Silva
Teixeira
Herman/Nog won't go distance
4.6u to win 4u

Maybe I'm nuts but I think those are great odds for a powerful striker with good accuracy and great knees going against Nogueira.  Wasn't that long ago everyone was clamoring to bet Schaub at -200 over Nog in Brazil saying that his chin was gone and he was a shot fighter, now you have Herman at +250?  With Nog even a couple years further down the road coming off a broken arm?

No doubt Nogueira is the better fighter and I've bet against Herman in all 3 of his UFC fights, he's chinny and gasses easily, but I think he's got a pretty good shot at landing something big on Nog and putting him out.  And who knows how that broken arm has effected Nog's training/striking. I can admit there's a decent chance I end up feeling like an idiot when this fight is over, but we'll see

Erick Silva is self-explanatory, I don't think I've ever seen such a consensus on one fighter with a line this close though.  If I take any other props I was thinking about Fitch by split dec, and Silva by split dec, this fight just has that feeling to it (and I don't think Silva will be able to finish Fitch that easily)

Also the hail mary parlay:

E. Silva by dec
Herman ITD
Anderson by sub
0.25u to win 59.43u

Good luck everyone

Good luck bud
Agreed there are some question marks with nog. IMO you could have laid all yr Herman chips on itd, cuz if he wins I'm positive it's KO

Ha I know, I bet him a few days ago.  I moved some money from my 5dimes to pinnacle because they had him at +250 and I didn't think I'd see that line again, guess I was wrong!  And +412 for ITD just looked too good yesterday so I tossed another unit on that. 

And thanks!

GL broski

At even odds, I really like Jon Fitch, he's beaten a lot more skilled and experienced fighter than Silva. Sure Silva has an impressive record but he didn't fought the type of competition that Fitch fought in his career! That wil probably be my biggest bet of the night!

GL

 

Who has he beat that is a lot more skilled?  Other than GSP who has Fitch fought that is "a lot more skilled"??

He went to a Draw with a 155er who was past his prime.  A 155er who kicked his ass until he gassed as usual. 

Thiago Alves and his T-Rex arms and cardio issues is not more skilled.

Ben Saunders? Gono?  Diego?  Hendricks?  None of these guys are more skilled than Silva.  I think Fitch's "run" was pretty overrated. 

His only shot here as is in many of his fights is dragging it to the ground and laying.  Brazil is the worst place anywhere on earth to try and do this. 

Maybe people are jumping the gun on Fitch.  But there are countless instances when people bet the "proven" fighter only to get burnt by the younger better fighter.  Rory has beat no one good really...so should BJ Penn beat him for that simple fact?

I think some people are hanging on to Fitch's name.  The man is almost 35 years old.  The sport in evolving. 

Now tell me who Erick Silva beat then....Prater Brenneman and Ramos are not in the UFC anymore...so the young and inexperienced  Brazilian will face a veteran wrestler who, I think, has won against better fighters (who are still in the UFC btw) and should he easily win? I dont know, if you would have said that this is a close fight and I think that Silva has better chance due to this and that, then I maybe I would agress with you, but it seems like you give NO respect to Fitch...

He was wrecking the Brazilian circuit.  He has just got to the UFC.  How is he supposed to fight guys he isn't given yet? 

I understand Fitch WAS the 2nd best WW for some time.  But he is almost 35.  There comes a time when guys slow down.  He just got KO'd fast.  He got his assed kicked by an over the hill 155er and only turned it into a Draw when said 155er gassed bad as usual.  Fitch hasn't looked that good lately.  Add in that he has need how many seconds of action in the last year?  Add in he has been injured a bunch over the past couple.  Add in the fight is in Brazil, a place where they don't allow lay and prayers.

Sure if we look at their records and who they have fought Fitch would win 9 out of 10 times. 

Glover Texeria has fought close to no one relevant.  Why was Shoguna dn Rashad afraid to fight him?  Why was he the huge favorite vs. Rampage?  Why are people throwing him in parlays at -400?  I mean he has beat no one worth a damn....

But wait, fights aren't fought on paper!

If the fight was in Iowa I wouldn't be as high on Erick Silva. 

Also Silva isn't that inexperienced.  Without looking he probably he close to the amount of fights Fitch has.  He trains at blackhouse with the likes of Anderson, Nogs, Feijao, Jacare, among others.  He has had months of training to stop the 1 thing Fitch can do well....lay n pray.  Anderson just fought that type of fighter.  They will have him as ready as he can be.

Like Erick Silva has said.  It isn't all about TDD.  It is about footwork and speed also.  He said Fitch will have a tough time tacking him down to even be able to shoot.

We will see.  Brazilians win at an alarming rate on Brazilian cards.  The UFC wouldn't of sent Fitch to Brazil to lay on Erick Silva is they thought that is how it would go.  They wouldn't of shot Silva that far up the ladder if they didn't believe he was ready.  They HATE Fitch.  They have set him up to fail here. 

People were bitching about Silva/Sonnen being in Brazil.  And how the ref would stand them up too quick everytime the crowd got restless.  Now what do you think happens if the worlds best lay and prayer is laying on Erick for any period of time? STAND UP!

Fitch may win. He's far more experienced. But what's sad about it, is no one is saying he's going to beat up silva, or KO him, or submit him... He can only hold him on the fence or lay on him to get a decision.

Yea.  You go guys!  Lets look at every fight on paper.  Whoever has fought better opponents certainly should win! That is the way to cap fights!

Fitch has 1 thing going for him.  Dragging it down and holding on.  If he opens up for GnP Silva will get up he isn't small weak Penn.  Fitch isn't going to sub Silva. 

I wouldn't feel comfortable betting on a guy who is almost 35, has been injured and out of action, has basially 1 avenue of winning, and is fighting in a place they discourage that one way to win.

But hey, he has fought better guys and he used to be real good.  So he should win.

I'm not sure what the feeling was at the time of that fight.

But this fight seems like Hughes - Alves.  Hughes coming into that fight had fought everyone and anyone.  He had the wrestling and experience.  Alves wasn't proven vs. anyone good.  He was facing a legend.  Alves went on to smash him, not even in Brazil.  Hughes wa past his prime.

any thoughts on fight of the night??

I have a feeling it's silva bonner no matter how it turns out

whipton  I had no leans for FOTN at all, we've seen some good ones so far though!

sharpstick

MR219

Erick Silva up to -165

Dave Herman down to +195



And that line on Maia's dropping right back down..

Erick Silva @ -200

There will not be any lay and Fitch tonight. He'll have to beat him fighting

Hahaha everyone was on Erick silva's nuts. Fitch all day!!!!!

Thanks idiot.

But yeah it is always a concern when everyone is on one side with a line like that.  Silva flying up to -200 just made it look even better.  Ah well, Fitch gonna Fitch.

Herman/Nogueira u1.5 -130
1.3u to win 1u

Silva by sub +1510
0.5u to win 7.55u