Posted:
#1
With impending cuts this should be an action packed card(hopefully).
Yuri Villefort(-125) vs Nah-Shon Burrell
Interesting match up considering both are coming off of losses in Strikeforce, but should be a highly entertaining fight nonetheless. To me this fight offers more value on the card than any other. Three years ago Villefort was the future in the Welterweight division. A few years and a torn acl and meniscus later he is nothing more than a 21 year old question mark. That being said he is a far more complete mixed martial artist than Burrell. Burrell has a great chin and a very aggressive striking style but his stand up has a ton of holes and his ground game is non existent. Villefort on the other hand is a solid striker with very good BJJ and above average grappling. With his judo backround my hope is that he doesn't try and trade with Burrell and just takes him down and ends this fight in the first with ground n pound or a submission.
Villefort will be able to dictate where this fight takes place and my only real concern is he will try and stand and trade with Burrell and look for the highlight reel knockout leaving himself open to being caught by one of Burrell's wild haymakers. While he could definitely win the fight on the feet, if he fights smart and takes Burrell down it should be a quick fight. Though Villefort lost his last fight by split decision to a solid Quinn Mulhern, it was his first fight in two years and I think one he needed to get under his belt. At only 21 years of age he still has a bright future and I think he begins his UFC career with a win in exciting fashion.
Magny (-160) vs Manley
The old striker vs wrestler match up when the two TUF alums meet on the FB prelims. Manley's stand up is average at best while Magny was a very versatile stand up game, the problem being his TTD is poor. While he has shown a propensity to get taken down, Magny's guard is pretty solid so I see Manley grinding out a lay n pray decision here. Not much value in this fight as Magny has had ample time since TUF to work on his take down defense so this fight could go either way. There may be a little value in taking Manley by decision at +275 but probably will pass on a play in this fight.
Jardine(-165) vs Robertson
This fight is a pink slip special and my guess is that Dana will cut both of these guys before this fight is even over. There is a better chance of Liz Carmouche winning by arm bar than there is of this fight winning FOTN. Maybe a tiny bit of value on Robertson but I don't wanna make a play and risk falling asleep while watching it and miss the rest of the card....Next
Bermudez(-425) vs Grice
These guys are both solid fighters with similar styles and the fact that bermudez is a one of biggest favs on the card boggles my mind. When a decision win over Pablo Garza is your most impressive win to date, how anyone can comprehend laying -425 again is mind boggling. The thing is I think Bermudez wins this fight by decision but I don't even find it worth putting him in a parlay at that price. I may throw a half a unit on grice for pure value purposes but I think there may be a little more value in taking Bermudez by decision at +150.
Fodor(-155) vs Stout
Not quite sure why Fodor is favored in this match up, Stout has faced superior competition and with wins against Lauzon, Wiman and Yves Edwards that would suggest that if he is on his game that this is his fight to lose. That being said he has struggled with personal issues and didn't look like his usual self in his last fight with Makdessi so couple that with the fact that the Strikeforce imports have looked extremely motivated makes this a no play for me.
0
Did you not read anything?? I was on Lawler at +325 and hit bermudez at +150 by decision and hit the hail mary play of Schaub by decision at +1050. Even hinted at small value in Robertson and Stout not to mention Court Mcgee at +120 by decision. The odds are in parenthesis, not necessarily who I am betting. I capped the hell out of that card but Villefort failing to finish the rear naked choke in the 1st and failed to even try to take Burrell down after that crushed what would of been a great night.
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