UFC 158: St. Pierre vs. Diaz

Last event: 3- 4
YTD: 25-22

2012: 111 - 56

Georges St. Pierre   vs.   Nick Diaz  
Main Event | Title Fight | Welterweight | 170 lbs (77.1 kg)

You think GSP loses @ home to Nick Diaz? Think again. Diaz will give GSP a tougher fight that any of his previous 5 or so opponents but in the end GSP takes at least 3 of the 5 rounds from Diaz.

Prediction - GSP via UD.

That's funny... I said it willb one of GSPs easiest!

I saw that =) And it might be, I forgot that Carlos dropped him and gave him a bit of a run for his money in his last fight.

Besides that he coasted against, Shields, Koscheck, Hardy, Alves, Penn and Fitch.

Carlos Condit   vs.   Johny Hendricks  
Co-Main Event | Welterweight | 170 lbs (77.1 kg)

Great fight here. I think Condit is the better fighter overall, with Johny hitting harder (obviously) and having better wrestling. Condit will have a 7" reach advantage and stands 6'2 to Hendricks 5'9. You think the game plan for Johny would be to explot Condit's suspect take-down defense but I honestly am not too sure how this fight will play out. Will Condit's hieght, length and striking advantage be enough? If this was a 5 round fight I'd like Condit to make a case in the latter rounds, in a 3 rounder it's hard not to side with Hendricks. Tough one to call.

Prediction - Hendricks continues his tear and takes a UD over Condit.

@crowat- what are your leans for the rest of the card? some tough fights to call IMO, some easier but giving up ungodly odds.

my early leans are

miller @ +210

Cruickshank -180

camozzi -105

like dillashaw and story but @ -400 and -550

think condit is the play of the night here. BOL man

Chris Camozzi   vs.   Nick Ring   Confirmed
Main Card | Middleweight | 185 lbs (83.9 kg)

Ring should take this with sturdy take-down defense and active kick-boxing.

Prediction - Ring via UD.

Mike Ricci   vs.   Colin Fletcher 
Main Card | Lightweight | 155 lbs (70.3 kg)

I missed most of the season with these two so admittatley I don't know much about them, this will be a learning fight, get out the note pad! From what I do know Ricci should have this by looking that their strength of record and the fact Ricci trains at Tristar in montreal under the tutelage of Rory McDonald and GSP.

Prediction - Ricci via TKO late in the 2nd.

Patrick Cote   vs.   Bobby Voelker  
Preliminary Card | Welterweight | 170 lbs (77.1 kg)

Fade Cote all day every day. Voelker is actually a tough match up, he has a great sprawl, is super strong in the clinch and has serviceable, tight boxing with above average power. As I am typing this I realize that Voelkers last fight was against Roger Bowling...which he won...in MID 2011. That changes thing a bit, the layoff of almost two years, first fight in the UFC and home court advantage for Cote might be enough, even though he is a terrible fighter. I just confused myself.

Prediction - Cote via sloppy home grown decision I guess.

Darren Elkins   vs.   Antonio Carvalho 
Preliminary Card | Featherweight | 145 lbs (65.8 kg)

Two things:

1) I have no reason to believe Elkins won't wrestle for three rounds
2) I have no reason to believe Carvalho will be able to stop even one of Elkins' shots.

Prediction - Elkins via UD.

Jordan Mein   vs.   Dan Miller  
Preliminary Card | Welterweight | 170 lbs (77.1 kg)

Jordan is better on the feet, Dan has better wrestling and BJJ. Mein's first fight in the UFC makes this tough to call. Jason High and Tyron Woodley were able to take Mein down and stay on top for a UD. I think Miller's fight IQ and wrestling get him this one, that being said I really high on Mein and wish I had a better grasp on his clinch and take-down defense, because that is what will win him the fight if it's on point.

Prediction - Miller via split decision.

Daron Cruickshank   vs.   John Makdessi
Preliminary Card | Lightweight | 155 lbs (70.3 kg)

I think and hope this will be a stand up battle. I give the edge to Makdessi, he has better technique and some of the best foot-work / timing in the lightweight division.

Daron is flashy and throws with good technique as well, I think he will struggle to land on Makdessi due to John's footwork. Cruickshank has more power and like I said is very flashy so a KO for him is not unattainable.

Prediction - Makdessi via split decision.

Jake Ellenberger   vs.   Nate Marquardt  
Main Card | Welterweight | 170 lbs (77.1 kg)

Interesting match-up, I think Nate survives the early attack from Jake and starts to cruise later on by stuffing take-downs and out striking Ellenberger.

Prediction - Marquardt via submission in the 3rd.

Id think hendricks would have to knock condit out to win. I hope diaz wins just to see the look on dana white's face. It would b priceless

Rick Story   vs.   Quinn Mulhern  
Preliminary Card | Welterweight | 170 lbs (77.1 kg)

Store by decision, but Quinn is way taller and poses and interesting undergo pick, story should outwork him and defend and subs though.

Prediction - Story by UD

T.J. Dillashaw   vs.   Issei Tamura  
Preliminary Card | Bantamweight | 135 lbs (61.2 kg)

I really want to pick Tamura for the upset, he hits SUPER hard for a Bantamweight. More liley outcome is Dilladhaw surviving and getting the take-downs he needs.

Prediction - Dillashaw via UD.

George Roop   vs.   Reuben Duran  
Preliminary Card | Bantamweight | 135 lbs (61.2 kg)

If the weight cut didnt destory roop he should take this.

Prediction - roop via TKO.

Predictions went 9 - 3 on the night.

YTD: 34-25

2012: 111 - 56

Roop - can't believe he made the cut, good on him for getting the win after a shaky first round

 Dillashaw - Nice kick. Good win although Isseu Tamura is probablt not long for the UFC.

Story - Story with the KO, nice win for him against a much taller opponent.

Ellenberger - that punch! He is much faster than I thought, blinding speed and power, I definitely  underestimated him.

 Makdessi - Like I said above, other than the first round which I beleve Makdessi used to get his timing down, Daron had nothing for him and struggled to get any offensive rythym. His wresting looked off and he didn't look THAT much bigger than Makdessi.

 Mein - Apparently Miller had a bad cut and was not breathing right at the weigh-ins. Mein is for real, kid has skills.

Elkins - His wrestling was too predictable in this fight, thankfully he made up for it with some nice power shots, good to know Elkins can hit pretty hard as well. Early stoppage but I'll take the W.

 Cote - I thought Voleker did enough to win, maybe it's just my hate for Cote coming through. Oh well.

Ricci - Good first UFC win for th Tristar product.

Cammozi - Man did ring ever look bad hey? Cammozi never impresses me iwth his wins of shitty people though.

Hendricks - it was a bad match up for condit with Johnys take-down ability. Now we get Hendricks vs GSP

GSP = decision.