UFC 181

22-14 +13.1

I'll probably have some Invicta and RFA bets in here, but the lines aren't usually released until 6-12 hours before the event.

As always, some leans to get us started. Discussion welcome.

Ashlee Evans-Smith -195 over Raquel Pennington
Ashlee is that girl who beat transgender fighter Fallon Fox. What impressed me about her is her aggression in her wrestling. She's not the most polished boxer, but she took a few on the chin flush from Fox and kept coming. Raquel depends on her opponents to stand at range and Ashlee won't do that. She'll take her down and beat her fairly easily.

Josh Samman +145 over Eddie Gordon
This is one of those fights where there's a hard-hitting slugger in Gordon against a well rounded, smart MMArtist in Samman. I just think, strategically, Samman has many more ways to win here and heads down one of those routes.

Alex White -170 over Clay Collard
If you have a friend who hasn't seen mma but wants to watch one fight, this will probably be the one you want them to see. Both of these guys are complete lunatics (in the best way possible). I just think Alex is a bit more technical on the feet and will eventually land hard and finish, but I'm excited for this fight. This will probably be the second fight pass prelim, which is a huge mistake by the ufc - it should be opening the free FS1 prelim card.

Faber inside distance -160 over Rivera
I feel like I'm getting punked here. This fight has Faber submission by guillotine/RNC in the 2nd round written all over it, right? Faber is a finishing machine against guys in the 5-20 range and I don't see any difference here. Butt chin all night.

In the main card, I'm doing something different. I think all of the favorites (Ferguson over Trujillo, Duffee over Hamilton, Browne over Schaub, Pettis over Gil, Hendricks over Lawler) win and I lean for them all to finish. I will be parlaying a bunch of them for small plays.

Good luck!

I agree with most of these picks but I think that Collard has a better chance than he is given to make this competitive. Also, with Faber ITD now at -160, I prefer Fight doesn't go to the distance at -170 as a better bet since it's almost the same price and covers a Rivera KO. I also think that Lawler is a very live dog against Hendricks.

Good call on the Faber prop, I completely looked it over - for the extra 10 cents it's completely worth the extra juice.

On Lawler, I'm guessing you don't buy the theory that Johny's injury had much impact on the first fight? I just think limiting his ability to do what he does best stylistically against Robbie - takedowns - had a big impact on that fight. Do you not put much stock in that?

I ended up taking Faber by submission at +140 instead of ITD or fight does not go the distance. As far as the main event, I like the fact that Robbie has been fighting and winning twice since the first fight while Hendricks has been rehabbing a injury and gaining weight from the pictures I can see.

Good call - thank you.

I still like Faber/Rivera doesn't go distance or under just because I think there is a chance Faber TKOs him after smothering him (unanswered strike variety) and I like the insurance if that should happen. I think the most often scenario is Faber by sub, but I think the vig is worth it. Maybe I'll split the bet though...

Getting the weekend started with a few plays from OneFC and Invicta. Good luck to all....

James McSweeney +180 over Roger Gracie .5 to win .9
Roger will get lit up on the feet and McSweeney is good enough to keep it there. McSweeney training with Drysdale will help him here. Roger's takedowns depend heavily on the clinch and McSweeney likes to use his kickboxing at range.

Andria Wawro -180 over Peggy Morgan .9 to win .5
Andria is better everywhere and will dominate.

Waterson + Evinger + Lee parlay .5 to win .5


FYI, I always go smaller on these plays.

The rest of the UFC bets for tomorrow, as I may be out of pocket most of the day (from favorite to least):

Faber inside distance -140 2.8 to win 2
Ashlee Evans-Smith -180 1.8 to win 1
Duffee by TKO/KO -160 1.6 to win 1
Hendricks inside distance +170 1 to win 1.7
Josh Samman +140 1 to win 1.4
Alex White +100 1 to win 1 (this one has been getting better and better)
Browne + Ferguson parlay 1 to win .8
Pettis/Melendez does not go distance +120 .5 to win .6

Good luck guys - enjoy the fights.

Good luck O!!!

Thanks man! Good luck to you too!

0-3 -1.9 to start the weekend.

I hope this isn't a primer for what's to come this evening.

BOL O

Best of luck tonight!

It better not be, I'm with you on certain guys, lol.

Thanks whip - you too!

You too, MR. Enjoy the fights!

22-14 +13.1

0-3 -1.9 on some Friday crap bets

22-17 +11.2

-1 White
-1.8 Evans-Smith
+1.4 Samman
+2 Faber ITD
+1 Duff by KO
+.8 Ferg/Browne parlay
+.6 Pettis/Gil inside distance
-1 Johny ITD

27-20 +13.2 posted

I was unimpressed by the main event and don't mind the judges decision. The rest of the night had some great fights/performances.