1) Werdum's best chance is to throw some wild punch or kick in the 1st round. And it has to catch Cain perfectly. Statistically, I don't see it happening.
2) Werdum's grappling ability will diminish past the first round. I absolutely don't see him submitting Cain past the first round. Both fighters will be extremely sweaty/slippery. Also, as the fight wears on, Werdum will NOT have the strength to hold any attempts on Cain, who will be the fresher and younger fighter. Add the the fact that Cain does not have long limbs to begin with...
3) Junior Dos Santos was able to last 5 rounds because he is a beast. An older Werdum will not be able to take a beating for 5 rounds. The relentless pressure will tire him within 3 or 4 rounds.
4) Everyone says that once it gets to the ground, it's Werdum's world. That is an illusion. If Werdum gets taken down, he most likely won't have the strength to submit Cain, much less stop the pummeling.
5) But, in the 1st round, when Werdum is at his freshest, Cain may not even attempt a takedown. He may just press Werdum against the cage and pummel and tire him. The takedowns may come in the later rounds when Werdum has no strength left.
Bottom line: I expect a stoppage in the 3rd or 4th round at the latest, with Cain winning.
Good luck
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Cain within the distance. -150
My reasons:
1) Werdum's best chance is to throw some wild punch or kick in the 1st round. And it has to catch Cain perfectly. Statistically, I don't see it happening.
2) Werdum's grappling ability will diminish past the first round. I absolutely don't see him submitting Cain past the first round. Both fighters will be extremely sweaty/slippery. Also, as the fight wears on, Werdum will NOT have the strength to hold any attempts on Cain, who will be the fresher and younger fighter. Add the the fact that Cain does not have long limbs to begin with...
3) Junior Dos Santos was able to last 5 rounds because he is a beast. An older Werdum will not be able to take a beating for 5 rounds. The relentless pressure will tire him within 3 or 4 rounds.
4) Everyone says that once it gets to the ground, it's Werdum's world. That is an illusion. If Werdum gets taken down, he most likely won't have the strength to submit Cain, much less stop the pummeling.
5) But, in the 1st round, when Werdum is at his freshest, Cain may not even attempt a takedown. He may just press Werdum against the cage and pummel and tire him. The takedowns may come in the later rounds when Werdum has no strength left.
Bottom line: I expect a stoppage in the 3rd or 4th round at the latest, with Cain winning.
1) Werdum's best chance is not a wild punch. Werdum's best chance is in his grappling, period. Why would the best BJJ guy in the division have his best hope to be striking with one of the best strikers in the division? He's an absolutely elite BJJ practicioner. That said, his striking is nothing to look past either.
2 & 3) Werdum went 5 rounds with Travis Browne a year ago. Sure, Cain is on a whole different level than Browne, but there's no evidence that Fabricio cannot go 5 rounds. Browne is a very talented & dangerous striker, yet Fabricio went the full 5. Werdum's cardio is better than Junior's.
4) Werdum's ground game is not an illusion. He is the best BJJ black belt arguably in HW history, one of the best in MMA history. The last high level BJJ guy that Cain fought is Minotauro, but that was more than 5 years ago. Cain doesn't have any recent fights against anyone who remotely resembles Werdum. However, Werdum does have opponents that could be compared to Cain in regard to being a dangerous striker.
5) There's a good chance Cain won't attempt any takedowns the entire fight, unless he's getting outstruck on the feet. Taking down a grappler like Werdum would be a horrendous game plan. The worst game plan he could possibly come up with. However Werdum most certainly will want to go there. He knows Cain will be expecthing this, so he will use his striking to upset Cain's plan until he can find an opening.
Beyond that, we don't know Cain his healthy. There's no evidence either way regarding his health, but consider this: would Cain pull from the fight if he WAS injured? Not a chance. Fighters hide injuries all the time. Cain, and his gym as a whole, has a reputation for injury, and if he pulled from this fight he would be stripped of his belt immediately. Who knows what kind of condition he is actually in. I'm not saying he's unhealthy, I'm just saying there are some question marks.
For some reason, people look past Werdum. He's coming off back to back wins against 2 incredible strikers. He also presents a stylistic matchup for Cain that he hasn't seen in years. I'm not taking Cain at -550 or worse. I think Werdum +375 is a generous price.
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1) Werdum's best chance is not a wild punch. Werdum's best chance is in his grappling, period. Why would the best BJJ guy in the division have his best hope to be striking with one of the best strikers in the division? He's an absolutely elite BJJ practicioner. That said, his striking is nothing to look past either.
2 & 3) Werdum went 5 rounds with Travis Browne a year ago. Sure, Cain is on a whole different level than Browne, but there's no evidence that Fabricio cannot go 5 rounds. Browne is a very talented & dangerous striker, yet Fabricio went the full 5. Werdum's cardio is better than Junior's.
4) Werdum's ground game is not an illusion. He is the best BJJ black belt arguably in HW history, one of the best in MMA history. The last high level BJJ guy that Cain fought is Minotauro, but that was more than 5 years ago. Cain doesn't have any recent fights against anyone who remotely resembles Werdum. However, Werdum does have opponents that could be compared to Cain in regard to being a dangerous striker.
5) There's a good chance Cain won't attempt any takedowns the entire fight, unless he's getting outstruck on the feet. Taking down a grappler like Werdum would be a horrendous game plan. The worst game plan he could possibly come up with. However Werdum most certainly will want to go there. He knows Cain will be expecthing this, so he will use his striking to upset Cain's plan until he can find an opening.
Beyond that, we don't know Cain his healthy. There's no evidence either way regarding his health, but consider this: would Cain pull from the fight if he WAS injured? Not a chance. Fighters hide injuries all the time. Cain, and his gym as a whole, has a reputation for injury, and if he pulled from this fight he would be stripped of his belt immediately. Who knows what kind of condition he is actually in. I'm not saying he's unhealthy, I'm just saying there are some question marks.
For some reason, people look past Werdum. He's coming off back to back wins against 2 incredible strikers. He also presents a stylistic matchup for Cain that he hasn't seen in years. I'm not taking Cain at -550 or worse. I think Werdum +375 is a generous price.
>>>2 & 3) Werdum went 5 rounds with Travis Browne a year ago. Sure, Cain is on a whole different level than Browne, but there's no evidence that Fabricio cannot go 5 rounds. Browne is a very talented & dangerous striker, yet Fabricio went the full 5. Werdum's cardio is better than Junior's.
It's about the pressure. I can't see a 37 year old weathering the pressure for 5 rounds. As you know, it's extremely exhausting defending against constant pressure...pressed up against a cage and pounded...round after round. That is something Werdum has not faced before....
There is no time to rest or recover.
So no, I don't see Werdum lasting past the 3rd or 4th round.
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>>>2 & 3) Werdum went 5 rounds with Travis Browne a year ago. Sure, Cain is on a whole different level than Browne, but there's no evidence that Fabricio cannot go 5 rounds. Browne is a very talented & dangerous striker, yet Fabricio went the full 5. Werdum's cardio is better than Junior's.
It's about the pressure. I can't see a 37 year old weathering the pressure for 5 rounds. As you know, it's extremely exhausting defending against constant pressure...pressed up against a cage and pounded...round after round. That is something Werdum has not faced before....
There is no time to rest or recover.
So no, I don't see Werdum lasting past the 3rd or 4th round.
I don't think the fight goes the distance no matter who wins. If Werdum can pull out a win, it will not be a decision win. And clearly Cain's best chance to win is always a knockout.
You are correct about the pressure, and Cain is the best at pressuring opponenets and grinding them against the cage. I have more faith in Werdum than to go out like that. He's got the reach advantage, and Werdum is completely capable of jumping guard and going to work from there. Jiu Jitsu is a game of energy efficiency.
Anyone who thinks Werdum cannot submit Cain needs to get their head checked. Werdum can submit ANYBODY in the right circumstances. It only takes Cain to be a little slow or a little late on one move and Werdum can grab ahold of a limb or his neck. But likewise, if Werdum is a little slow at the wrong time Cain could easily flip his light switch.
It's gonna be a great fight and while I'm rooting for Werdum, I don't really care who wins as long as it's spectacular. I have action on Werdum but only small ball. I'll add more action if the line moves to +500 or better.
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I don't think the fight goes the distance no matter who wins. If Werdum can pull out a win, it will not be a decision win. And clearly Cain's best chance to win is always a knockout.
You are correct about the pressure, and Cain is the best at pressuring opponenets and grinding them against the cage. I have more faith in Werdum than to go out like that. He's got the reach advantage, and Werdum is completely capable of jumping guard and going to work from there. Jiu Jitsu is a game of energy efficiency.
Anyone who thinks Werdum cannot submit Cain needs to get their head checked. Werdum can submit ANYBODY in the right circumstances. It only takes Cain to be a little slow or a little late on one move and Werdum can grab ahold of a limb or his neck. But likewise, if Werdum is a little slow at the wrong time Cain could easily flip his light switch.
It's gonna be a great fight and while I'm rooting for Werdum, I don't really care who wins as long as it's spectacular. I have action on Werdum but only small ball. I'll add more action if the line moves to +500 or better.
Cain inside the distance is a smart play, because this fight don't go 5 rounds. BUT since you haven't picked a winner in 2 years, 0-3 against Weidman and Cormier over Jones, your track record isn't that good. I say Cain wins inside you stay, if he loses try capping cricket or something!!!!!!!!!!
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Cain inside the distance is a smart play, because this fight don't go 5 rounds. BUT since you haven't picked a winner in 2 years, 0-3 against Weidman and Cormier over Jones, your track record isn't that good. I say Cain wins inside you stay, if he loses try capping cricket or something!!!!!!!!!!
After what Cain did to Junior, how can you bet against him? No-one can beat a healthy Cain. Doesn't matter that he hasn't fought in the UFC since 2013, he fights against tough guys in practice all the time.
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After what Cain did to Junior, how can you bet against him? No-one can beat a healthy Cain. Doesn't matter that he hasn't fought in the UFC since 2013, he fights against tough guys in practice all the time.
He's fought 2 guys in 5 years, so I think there's plenty of room for debate here. Junior is an incredible boxer but he bears no resemblance to Werdum. And don't forget, Junior knocked out Cain in the first round in their first fight. So I guess it depends which of their fights you want to remember.
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He's fought 2 guys in 5 years, so I think there's plenty of room for debate here. Junior is an incredible boxer but he bears no resemblance to Werdum. And don't forget, Junior knocked out Cain in the first round in their first fight. So I guess it depends which of their fights you want to remember.
He's fought 2 guys in 5 years, so I think there's plenty of room for debate here. Junior is an incredible boxer but he bears no resemblance to Werdum. And don't forget, Junior knocked out Cain in the first round in their first fight. So I guess it depends which of their fights you want to remember.
Come on, he landed a lucky punch in a fight where Cain wasn't healthy and was forced to fight because it was on FOX.
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Quote Originally Posted by whitebelt:
He's fought 2 guys in 5 years, so I think there's plenty of room for debate here. Junior is an incredible boxer but he bears no resemblance to Werdum. And don't forget, Junior knocked out Cain in the first round in their first fight. So I guess it depends which of their fights you want to remember.
Come on, he landed a lucky punch in a fight where Cain wasn't healthy and was forced to fight because it was on FOX.
@Whitebelt- Congrats man. I give props when props are due. You got it right, I got it wrong.
The layoff AND lack of training in high altitude had a bigger effect than I thought...
I do think Cain will win in a rematch, with the PROPER training. After nearly 2 years, he needed the fight, win or lose. Hopefully, he'll be able to fight within 6 months. But with Cain, one never knows.
Anyway, good job.
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@Whitebelt- Congrats man. I give props when props are due. You got it right, I got it wrong.
The layoff AND lack of training in high altitude had a bigger effect than I thought...
I do think Cain will win in a rematch, with the PROPER training. After nearly 2 years, he needed the fight, win or lose. Hopefully, he'll be able to fight within 6 months. But with Cain, one never knows.
No need for condescending insults you 20/20 monkey.
If you agree, fine...if you don't fine. Attack the post...not the person.
Idiot.
Sorry did I hurt your feelings?????? When people post a 5 paragraph article about why someone is gonna win and haven't pick a winner in 2 years it looks and is MUSH material!!!!!!!!! Cain and you have something in common though, neither has won in 2 years!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! So we will see you in another 6 months with another 5-1 loser!!!!!!!!!!!!
No need for condescending insults you 20/20 monkey.
If you agree, fine...if you don't fine. Attack the post...not the person.
Idiot.
Sorry did I hurt your feelings?????? When people post a 5 paragraph article about why someone is gonna win and haven't pick a winner in 2 years it looks and is MUSH material!!!!!!!!! Cain and you have something in common though, neither has won in 2 years!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! So we will see you in another 6 months with another 5-1 loser!!!!!!!!!!!!
Sorry did I hurt your feelings?????? When people post a 5 paragraph article about why someone is gonna win and haven't pick a winner in 2 years it looks and is MUSH material!!!!!!!!! Cain and you have something in common though, neither has won in 2 years!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! So we will see you in another 6 months with another 5-1 loser!!!!!!!!!!!!
Go away. Shoo. Scram.
Idiot
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Quote Originally Posted by Ferrari29:
Sorry did I hurt your feelings?????? When people post a 5 paragraph article about why someone is gonna win and haven't pick a winner in 2 years it looks and is MUSH material!!!!!!!!! Cain and you have something in common though, neither has won in 2 years!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! So we will see you in another 6 months with another 5-1 loser!!!!!!!!!!!!
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