UFC 189 Write-Up / Predictions

Cody Pfister v. Yosdenis Cedeno

Cody Pfister did not look good in his debut against James  Moontasri and the only positive thing you could say is Pfister showed one hell of a chin. He ate an absurd amount of strikes including several knees that landed perfectly on his face. The fight really should have been stopped in round 1 as Pfister didn’t offer much defense; he was so stunned after one flurry that when he threw a (missed) counterpunch he fell to the ground. He came out swinging in round 2 and fell to the ground off a missed takedown attempt, and Moontasri basically walked onto his back and choked him out.

Yosdenis is 1-2 in the UFC. In his only UFC win against Jerrod Sanders, he laid an early haymaker on Sanders after catching a body kick and proceeded to land some power shots on the ground, but Sanders was able to end up on top of him. Yosdenis ended up in a stacked guard and landed some fierce shots. After another scramble Cedeno ended up in half guard and landed more nasty elbows, punches, and knees to the body. Sanders injured his knee and could not continue to the 2nd round. He looked pretty well dominated in his decision loss to Chad Laprise in his last fight. Laprise had Cedeno backing up on the feet and Laprise took him down fairly easily throughout the fight. In round one, Laprise easily mounted Cedeno and then took the back with a nice body lock. A guy with better submission skills could have finished that fight, but Laprise cruised to a clear decision.

I’m not high on either of these guys personally. Cedeno is a brawler with dangerous hands, but has plenty of holes in his grappling & wrestling. Pfister didn’t show anything at all in his first UFC fight but a lot of heart. He seems to try and wrestle his opponents, but didn’t show any kind of wrestling chops in his debut and has no wrestling credentials that I could find.

Pick: Yosdenis Cedeno (KO)

Neil Seery v. Louis Smolka

The 35 year old Irishman, Neil Seery, is on a 2 win streak with decisions over Phil Harris and Chris Beal. He’s 2-1 in the UFC, losing to Brad Pickett in his debut, and is 15-10 as a pro. Despite having a BJJ purple belt and training in Judo as well, Seery is a boxer first and foremost. He’s mostly kept his fights standing, and against Phil Harris refused to engage in a dominant position on several occasions, forcing Harris to stand up. He showed something different against Beal, keeping it a boxing match in round 1 and showing his grappling skills in round 2, even locking up a standing guillotine and jumping guard at one point. He’s a boxer first, but really seems to be growing into a true mixed martial artist.

Louis Smolka is a young Hawaiian prospect with brown belts in both Judo and Karate. He’s 2-1 in the UFC and is coming off a KO win over Richie Vaculik, which he finished in the final seconds of the fight. He showed toughness, weathering an early storm from Vaculik in round 1. Vaculik outstruck him most of the fight and also landed a few takedowns along the way. Smolka also nearly got finished by rear naked choke after giving up his back in round 2. I believe Smolka was losing the fight on points, but managed to pull off a KO before the final bell.

Smolka will have the height and reach advantage here, and is the more explosive fighter. But I don’t think he’s fought against someone with the same toughness as Seery. Smolka is a higher volume striker, but he also eats as many as he lands. Seery is much more judicious with his boxing and isn’t as willing to take one to give one. I think Seery point fights and counter punches his way to a close decision victory here.

Pick: Neil Seery (decision)

Cody Garbrandt v. Henry Briones

Garbrandt is an explosive young talent with a penchant for knockouts, while having some personal / legal issues outside of the cage. He’s only 6-0 professionally and 1-0 UFC with a 100% TKO/KO rate. He looked great in his debut showing nearly textbook striking and fast, strong combinations. It was a bit of a take one to give one affair, with Brimage keeping somewhat close in strikes, with Cody landing the better strikes. Brimage was saved by the bell at the end of the first, but Cody got the finish in with less than 30 seconds left in round 3. Cody is an Alpha Male product and has the benefit of training with guys like Uriah Faber, TJ Dillashaw and Chad Mendes.

Henry Briones is way better and more dangerous than the underdog price would indicate, ranging from +425 at bovada and +540 at 5dimes. He took an absolute beating in the first round of his debut against fellow TUF competitor Guido Cannetti. Henry was more than happy to stay in a phone booth and answer back with big powerful strikes. Not many people what have survived that onslaught, and I give his chin an A+. He picked up where he left off trading strikes in round 2, and landed a nasty uppercut to knock Guido down. He poured on the ground and pound and when Guido exposed his back, Briones instantly mounted his back and sunk a rear naked choke.

I like both of these prospects and love this matchup, and I expect to see a good finish from either side. I would take Cody in this fight down to -200, but he’s overvalued beyond that and currently has a horrendous line at -650 or worse. Briones showed his iron chin against an excellent striker in Guido Cannetti, whose very similar in striking ability as Cody Garbrandt. I’ll take the Tijuana native to grind out another TKO. If you’re not sold on him as a value bet, the smart play is fight does not go the distance.

Pick: Henry Briones (inside the distance)

Alex Garcia v. Mike Swick

Garcia is 12-2 pro with 2-1 in the UFC and is coming off a loss to Neil Magny (Decision). He got destroyed in his loss to Magny both on the feet and on the ground. However he was able to take Magny down a few times, and he took Spencer down 8 times in his previous fight. Garcia is a BJJ medalist and I think he’s can impose it on Swick.

Mike Swick is the only fighter you need to look at in this fight. He has lost 3 of his last 4 fights. After losing to Dan Hardy and Paulo Thiago, he took a 2.5 year layoff and came back to KO DeMarques Johnson. He then proceeded in his last outing tl lose by KO to Matt Brown, which was in December 2012. Perhaps 2.5 year layoffs are his key to victory, but I’m not giving the 36 year old any chance to win this fight. I bet against him regardless of his opponent.

Pick: Alex Garcia (inside the distance)

Cathal Pendred v. John Howard

Pendred is one of the more boring fighters I’ve watched in recent history, but he’s now gone 4-0 in the UFC although 2 of those were robberies (in my opinion). With all that said, I’ve learned better than to bet against him after losing money doing so in his last 3 outings.

John Howard certainly isn’t convincing me to do so, anyway. Having lost his last 3 fights consecutively, and has only won 4 in his last 11. He has looked wholly unimpressive in each loss, getting worked on the ground by Ebersole and LaFlare, then getting finished with an early KO by Lorenz Larkin.

Look for Pendred to use his dominant clinch control to cruise to another decision.

Pick: Cathal Pendred (Decision)

Matt Brown v. Tim Means

This could be the fight of the night. These guys are both absolute brawlers and if the chins hold up, are going to put on an absolute war. These guys mirror each other in so many ways, from their brawling knockout styles down to their history of serious drug abuse before finding MMA. Matt Brown went on a 7 fight tear including 6 KO finishes before dropping his last 2 straight with decision losses to Robbie Lawler and Johny Hendricks. Tim Means has won 6 of his last 7 and is riding a 4 win streak, with his last 2 coming by finish.

This fight is impossible to handicap and really should be a pickem. But since it’s not a pick em, I’m going with Tim Means as a +170 dog. At even money, I wouldn’t even be betting a winner, only that it doesn’t go the distance.

Pick: Tim Means (TKO)

Brad Pickett v. Thomas Almeida

Pickett is 36 now and has lost 3 of his last 4. The lone win in that span was against Neil Seery, where he dominated Seery on the mat. He looked awful in each fight, getting beat down in every aspect of every fight.

Thomas Almeida is 18-0 as a young pro and is now 2-0 in the UFC. The Brazilian started in Chute Boxe and also holds a brown belt in BJJ. He’s got 17 finishes in his 18 wins, including 14 by KO and 3 by submission.

He’s one of the UFC’s hottest young fighters and really isn’t overvalued at a -1000 favorite. If you’re betting on Almeida, at least find some value in a prop bet with Almeida winning inside the distance.

Pick: Thomas Almeida (TKO)

Gunnar Nelson v. Brandon Thatch

This is a great stylistic matchup of an elite grappler against a monster-sized explosive striker. Brandon Thatch looked great in his first 2 UFC fights, which he won both via first round knockout. At 6’2” he’s huge for the division, and his training home of Denver has blessed him with elevated cardio for this division. His last opponent changed from Stephen Thompson to Benson Henderson on 2 weeks notice, and the veteran really exposed Thatch’s lack of ground game. The first 2 rounds were closely matched striking exchanges, but the 3rd and 4th rounds were Henderson grappling his way to a submission victory.

Gunnar Nelson is an elite grappler with a black belt in BJJ and a brown belt in Karate to back it up. Gunnar is coming off a horrible outing against Rick Story, which he lost by 5 round decision. Before that aweful show, Gunnar won his first 4 UFC fights with 3 coming by submission. Of his 13-1 pro record, he has 9 submission victories total.

The whole public seems to be on Thatch, which I assume is because he’s got the deadly combination of big size and explosive technique. And those things are true. But Gunnar has been training with Conor McGregor for this fight, so he should be ready for some of the unorthodoxed strikes that Thatch is going to bring. I think Nelson will follow Henderson’s lead, and ultimately find a way to make this a grappling match. I can see Gunnar using Thatch’s aggressiveness against him- hell, I could even see him pulling a submission off his back if he gets put on his butt from strikes. Gunnar’s grappling advantage is greater than Thatch’s striking advantage.

Pick: Gunnar Nelson (Submission)

Dennis Bermudez v. Jeremy Stephens

Bermudez is coming off a first round submission loss to Ricardo Lamas, which broke an impressive 7 fight win streak that included notable wins over Clay Guida, Steven Siler, and Max Holloway. As impressive as he has been in his wins, he deserves to be under scrutiny after a pathetic loss in his last fight. Bermudez didn’t look bad through the first few minutes against Lamas, until he basically got knocked out by a modest jab. Lamas rocked him off the jab, and immediately landed a perfect guillotine which forced Bermudez to tap.

Lil Heathen is riding a 2 loss streak, dropping decisions to Cub Swanson and Charles Oliveira, after compiling a 3 fight win streak. He seems to struggle against ranked fighters, with his last 5 losses coming against the above mentioned fighters in addition to Anthony Pettis, Donald Cerrone, Yves Edwards.

On paper, it’s easy to understand why The Menace is a favorite having won 7 of his last 8, while Lil Heathen has only won 3 of his last 8. Stephens hasn’t looked horrible in his losses, but just can’t find a way to win. I’m taking Bermudez in a couple of parlays, but really can’t bet him straight because his chin looked as weak as possible in his last outing.

Pick: Bermudez (decision)

Robbie Lawler v. Rory MacDonald

The defending champion and fight of the year winner Robbie Lawler is the underdog in his first title defense? Seriously!? Ruthless has completely reinvented himself since coming to the UFC in 2013. After trading wins and losses for years in Strikeforce, he’s gone 6-1 in the UFC, with his lone loss in that span being a R5 decision loss to Hendricks in the FOTY. Which as you probably know, he avenged in his last outing to win the championship title.

Rory MacDonald has been impressive himself going 9-2 in the UFC, and currently riding a 3 win streak. His last loss came to none other than Robbie Lawler, which was a split decision that really should have been unanimous. Rory is a great kickboxer, but also has very good black belt jiu jitsu. He has been very technical with his striking, and has a reputation for outstriking his opponents by a very wide margin. Statistically, he lands 3.94 strikes/minute and absorbs 2.42 strikes/minute.

I love both of these guys, but I really don’t see why Rory is the favorite. The only dangerous striker he’s matched up against recently is Lawler, and Lawler won the fight. Rory resorted to takedowns, and while he will take opponents down he generally keeps his fights striking. Lawler holds 2 big advantages: power and aggression. He has beaten better wrestlers (Hendricks, Ellenberger) and has also beaten great strikers (Hendricks, Matt Brown). I see this fight going much like the last one, except this is Rory’s first 5 round fight and a decision is less likely.

Pick: Lawler (TKO)

Conor McGregor v. Chad Mendes

These guys need no introduction, so I’m going to keep this short. Conor McGregor hasn’t been tested in the way that Chad Mendes is going to test him. All of his wins have been spectacular to watch, but his only notable win was a great TKO of Dustin Porier. With only 5 wins in the UFC (4 by TKO), he’s a legitimate top 10 contender. But there’s a reason the UFC hasn’t matched him against a wrestler. The reason is that wrestling and grappling are major question marks in his game, and a matchup against Mendes or Ellenberger posed a huge threat to McGregor’s unblemished record, and a loss would derail the hype-train that the UFC is riding to millions of dollars. That’s why he was matched up against Jose Aldo while leapfrogging every notable threat in the 145 division.

Chad Mendes is a nightmare matchup for McGregor. Mendes has a matching 17-2 record, but sets himself apart with an 8-2 UFC record to Conor’s 5-0. The Alpha Male product trains with some of the best in Uriah Hall and TJ Dillashaw. And let’s not forget: Mendes has never lost to anybody not-named Jose Aldo. Mendes is a 2xNCAA D1 All American and 2x PAC10 Champion.

Chad Mendes is going to derail this train, and the hardcore fans are going to profit handsomly with +160 odds on the #1 fighter at 145, second best only to the #1 pound for pound fighter in the world. Only casual fans are on McGregor, and Las Vegas is going to empty the bank accounts of the thousands of Irish tourists who are attending the fight in person.

Pick: Chad Mendes (inside the distance)