Coming off a nice 3 pick sweep for +4 units and I really like some of the fights on tonights card so here what I'm going for this evening..
I
really like Robbie Lawlor as a fighter and always find him
entertaining. But I think he's over matched by a better overall fighter
tonight.
Both
guys hit like heavyweights so this fight definitely could end on one
punch from either fighter. But now thats Hendricks has had a
championship fight under his belt I think he will know better what it's
like to fight for 25 minutes and that he should not just stand and bang
but also mix in his wrestling to score some take downs because I believe
he has a decent edge on the ground
My
only real concern is thats Hendricks can get sloppy and frustrated and
just start swinging for the fences if he loses focus. And that could
leave a opening for a devastating counter by Lawlor who doesn't need a
ton of time or space to get off a bomb.
But
if Hendricks is truly out for the title and after the ridiculously
controversial loss against G.S.P he will be. Then he should be smart
enough to use all of his weapons and not play into Lawlor's hands and
turn this into a slugfest. And that should be enough for the win and
maybe KO in the championship rounds.
//////
I
also have to go with Carlos Condit who I think will use his advantage
in experience to keep Woodley's wrestling at bay for the most part.
Condit is always moving and has great footwork and kickboxing. And if he
has a good gameplan like he usually does I think he out classes Woodley
tonight. But with wrestlers you always have to be worried about the lay
and prey grubby victory. So I'm not laying the big vig and instead will
parlay Condit with Hendricks.
//////
Speaking
of lay and pray and grubby victories the next fight I'm looking at is
cap'n snooze fest himself Jake Shields vs hector Lombard.
Shields
does have a couple wins a in row. But if he tries to hang on for 15
minutes against a beast like Lombard he's gonna get finished. Sure he
could get another boring decision. But I think Lombard has too many ways
to end the fight not to take this one with a finish. Or even the
decision himself if he stays busy.
////
And
although I'm not a big fan of Diego Sanchez as a person. I do think
he's worth a bet tonight. He has a ton of experience as this will be his
20th tilt inside the octagon and just the 4th for his opponent.
Also
I'm always a fan of anyone training at Jackson MMA cuz I think Greg
Jackson is a fight genius and gets his fighters prepared better than any
other trainer/camp.
And
yes Sanchez is coming off a loss but that was to Gilbert Melendes and
that guys is a machine. so this fight shouldn't be as tough. Whereas
Sanchez is much tougher than Jury's last opponent Mike Ricci.
//////
And
then on a bit of a flyer I'm taking a shot at huge dog Will Campuzano.
He lost his last fight but did so on short notice and still looked good.
And now he gets a kid making his 2nd UFC fight and also coming off a
first round knockout win. So the hype may have pushed this line up to
where it is now which I think is a good -150 to -200 higher than it
should be. I could see Scoogins -400 but -600 is a bit much.
0
To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Coming off a nice 3 pick sweep for +4 units and I really like some of the fights on tonights card so here what I'm going for this evening..
I
really like Robbie Lawlor as a fighter and always find him
entertaining. But I think he's over matched by a better overall fighter
tonight.
Both
guys hit like heavyweights so this fight definitely could end on one
punch from either fighter. But now thats Hendricks has had a
championship fight under his belt I think he will know better what it's
like to fight for 25 minutes and that he should not just stand and bang
but also mix in his wrestling to score some take downs because I believe
he has a decent edge on the ground
My
only real concern is thats Hendricks can get sloppy and frustrated and
just start swinging for the fences if he loses focus. And that could
leave a opening for a devastating counter by Lawlor who doesn't need a
ton of time or space to get off a bomb.
But
if Hendricks is truly out for the title and after the ridiculously
controversial loss against G.S.P he will be. Then he should be smart
enough to use all of his weapons and not play into Lawlor's hands and
turn this into a slugfest. And that should be enough for the win and
maybe KO in the championship rounds.
//////
I
also have to go with Carlos Condit who I think will use his advantage
in experience to keep Woodley's wrestling at bay for the most part.
Condit is always moving and has great footwork and kickboxing. And if he
has a good gameplan like he usually does I think he out classes Woodley
tonight. But with wrestlers you always have to be worried about the lay
and prey grubby victory. So I'm not laying the big vig and instead will
parlay Condit with Hendricks.
//////
Speaking
of lay and pray and grubby victories the next fight I'm looking at is
cap'n snooze fest himself Jake Shields vs hector Lombard.
Shields
does have a couple wins a in row. But if he tries to hang on for 15
minutes against a beast like Lombard he's gonna get finished. Sure he
could get another boring decision. But I think Lombard has too many ways
to end the fight not to take this one with a finish. Or even the
decision himself if he stays busy.
////
And
although I'm not a big fan of Diego Sanchez as a person. I do think
he's worth a bet tonight. He has a ton of experience as this will be his
20th tilt inside the octagon and just the 4th for his opponent.
Also
I'm always a fan of anyone training at Jackson MMA cuz I think Greg
Jackson is a fight genius and gets his fighters prepared better than any
other trainer/camp.
And
yes Sanchez is coming off a loss but that was to Gilbert Melendes and
that guys is a machine. so this fight shouldn't be as tough. Whereas
Sanchez is much tougher than Jury's last opponent Mike Ricci.
//////
And
then on a bit of a flyer I'm taking a shot at huge dog Will Campuzano.
He lost his last fight but did so on short notice and still looked good.
And now he gets a kid making his 2nd UFC fight and also coming off a
first round knockout win. So the hype may have pushed this line up to
where it is now which I think is a good -150 to -200 higher than it
should be. I could see Scoogins -400 but -600 is a bit much.
Been running around all day but taped the fights (although I already know who won a couple fights/bets) and before I watch I wanted to post one pick.
I love Hendo and he is one of the greatest fights to ever step in a
ring. But I think at this point in their respective careers. Shogun is
just that half step quicker and when guys hit this hard thats all it
takes.
UFC:
(1)SHOGUN -150 to win 1 unit
0
Been running around all day but taped the fights (although I already know who won a couple fights/bets) and before I watch I wanted to post one pick.
I love Hendo and he is one of the greatest fights to ever step in a
ring. But I think at this point in their respective careers. Shogun is
just that half step quicker and when guys hit this hard thats all it
takes.
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and before I watch I wanted to post one pick.
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