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UFC 205

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Posted: #1
Khabib Nurmagomedov wins fastest SUB +1000 (1 Unit)

Chris Weidman wins fastest KO +775 (1 Unit)
Conor McGregor wins fastest KO +350 (1 Unit)

Stephens/Edgar Best Fight +700 (1 Unit)
Kowalkiewicz/Jedrzejczyk Best Fight +400 (1 Unit)

Under 1.5 Fights to end in submission -117 (1 Unit)


Kattyn Chookagian -175 (2 Units)

Vincente Luque -115 (3 Units)

Boetsch wins by TKO/KO +275 (1 Unit)
Natal wins by TKO/KO +360 (1 Unit)

Johnson/Nurmagomedov Over 2.5 -145 (3 Unit)
Nurmagomedov wins by 3 round decision +131 (4 Units)
Johnson wins by TKO/KO +475 (1 Unit)

Edgar wins by 3 round decision -129 (4 Units)
Stephens wins by 3 round decision +655 (1 Unit)

Pennington wins by 3 round decision +250 (3 Units)
Tate wins by 3 round decision +171 (1 Unit)

Romero wins by TKO/KO +375 (1 Unit)
Weidman wins by TKO/KO +390 (2 Units)

Kowalkiewicz wins by 5 round decision +511 (2 Units)
Jedrzejczyk wins by 5 round decision -111 (3 Units)

Thompson wins inside distance +111 (6 Units)
Thompson wins by 5 round decision +322 (1 Unit)

McGregor wins inside distance +104 (5 Units)
McGregor wins in round 1 +250 (2 Units)
McGregor wins in round 2 +600 (1 Unit)
 
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Posted: #2
Quick thoughts...


-Chookagian is a good prospect and will be too much on the feet for Carmouche.  Don't like taking heavy favorites much in UFC, but think she gets it done easily to start the card.

-Miller/Alves is a pass for me after the weigh in.  Alves will obviously be bigger, but don't know what kind of shape he is in and Miller is always a tough out.  

-Luque coming in off short notice, but is the better fighter and I'd take him up to -140-150.

-I think Natal and Boetsch has potential for a slug fest.  Hoping for a KO.

-I'm a little nervous about Johnson and his power, so made a little bet on him by TKO/KO, but I think Khabib is on a mission for that title shot and will take down Johnson several times and ruin Michael's night after 15 minutes of hell.

-I don't think Edgar or Stephens will get finished and believe Edgar is the better fighter, so I'm putting 4 units on Edgar, but if the judges want to ruin a ton of parlays, I bet 1 Unit on Stephens by decision.

-I like Pennington's form, and believe she can outpoint Miesha to a decision, so I went 3 Units at a great price, but Tate obviously has a good shot on the cards too, so bet her for 1 unit too by decision.

-I don't think either Weidman or Romero want a 3 round brawl.  I could be screwed if this turns into a wrestling match, but I'm banking on one of these guys clipping the other early, and just have a feeling it's going to be Weidman. (I know about the neck)

-Love Joanna. Love.  But, this price is ridiculous.  I know she beat Karolina, but it was 4 years ago, and Karolina has won 10 pro fights since then.  They are very similar strikers, and I think Karolina will surprise a lot of people.  I'm banking on a decision and think Karolina has a pretty decent shot, better than the odds indicate.

-Thompson all day.  I've watched most of both of these fighter's fights and just see Thompson taking this fight probably 9 out of 10 times.  I think Woodley will want to go for the kill relatively early and be killed.  I think Thompson could finish this in the 1st or 2nd, so putting 6 units on inside the distance as a dog, and bet Thompson by decision +322 for 1 Unit just in case Woodley has the heart of a champ.

-Just my opinion, but I believe McGregor is clearly in Alvarez's head.  Alvarez can't hang with McGregor on the mic and won't be able to hang with him in the ring.  I think Alvarez gets too emotional, tries to get in a slug fest, and gets knocked out cold in the 1st round.  2nd round bet as well, again, in case Alvarez has the heart of a champ.



Been waiting for this card and PPV for some time.  Cannot wait.  Good luck to all.  
 
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Posted: #3
Hey PS- What book do you use to get these exotic MMA lines?

And hoping to find the handle with the NBA.  Tough sledding to start the season.
 
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Posted: #4
I agree with everything you said, however I give Woodley a bit better than 1/10 fights. His heavy hands give him a bit better than a punchers chance.

Appreciate your analysis and will be tailing on several.


BOL
 
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Posted: #5
Quote Originally Posted by beracha:

Hey PS- What book do you use to get these exotic MMA lines?

And hoping to find the handle with the NBA.  Tough sledding to start the season.

5dimes
 
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Posted: #6
Thanks for the info Papa...   I'm joining you on Luque at -120   

 
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Posted: #7
Quote Originally Posted by JusJus:

I agree with everything you said, however I give Woodley a bit better than 1/10 fights. His heavy hands give him a bit better than a punchers chance.

Appreciate your analysis and will be tailing on several.


BOL

Even if you think Thompson wins 7 of 10 times, then -190 is worth it if you wanted just the moneyline.  Woodley has heavy hands, but he most likely won't be able to get near Thompson.  I see this fight going like McDonald/Woodley.  And we just saw Thompson absolutely embarrass Rory at basically his own game for 5 rounds.  I think Woodley won't be able to get at range, will have a difficult time with the take down and just get chopped apart for a relatively quick finish.
 
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Posted: #8
Quote Originally Posted by PapaShango:


Even if you think Thompson wins 7 of 10 times, then -190 is worth it if you wanted just the moneyline.  Woodley has heavy hands, but he most likely won't be able to get near Thompson.  I see this fight going like McDonald/Woodley.  And we just saw Thompson absolutely embarrass Rory at basically his own game for 5 rounds.  I think Woodley won't be able to get at range, will have a difficult time with the take down and just get chopped apart for a relatively quick finish.

Woodley is the flavor of the day like so many others.. Thompson should easily outclass him.. Woodley's only chance is a one shot knock out, but I don't think Thompson will give him that chance. 
 
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Posted: #9
or maybe lay and pray.. but again, thompson is too smart to allow that.
 
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Posted: #10
Kattyn Chookagian -175 (2 Units)

Vincente Luque -115 (3 Units)
 
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Posted: #11
Quote Originally Posted by BWS77:

Thanks for the info Papa...   I'm joining you on Luque at -120   



Thank you sir!
 
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Posted: #12
Kattyn Chookagian -175 (2 Units)

Vincente Luque -115 (3 Units)

Boetsch wins by TKO/KO +275 (1 Unit)
Natal wins by TKO/KO +360 (1 Unit)
 
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Posted: #13
Kattyn Chookagian -175 (2 Units)

Vincente Luque -115 (3 Units)

Boetsch wins by TKO/KO +275 (1 Unit)
Natal wins by TKO/KO +360 (1 Unit)

Johnson/Nurmagomedov Over 2.5 -145 (3 Unit)
Nurmagomedov wins by 3 round decision +131 (4 Units)
Johnson wins by TKO/KO +475 (1 Unit)
 
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Posted: #14
Kattyn Chookagian -175 (2 Units)

Vincente Luque -115 (3 Units)

Boetsch wins by TKO/KO +275 (1 Unit)
Natal wins by TKO/KO +360 (1 Unit)

Johnson/Nurmagomedov Over 2.5 -145 (3 Unit)
Nurmagomedov wins by 3 round decision +131 (4 Units)
Johnson wins by TKO/KO +475 (1 Unit)

Edgar wins by 3 round decision -129 (4 Units)
Stephens wins by 3 round decision +655 (1 Unit)
 
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Posted: #15
Kattyn Chookagian -175 (2 Units)

Vincente Luque -115 (3 Units)

Boetsch wins by TKO/KO +275 (1 Unit)
Natal wins by TKO/KO +360 (1 Unit)

Johnson/Nurmagomedov Over 2.5 -145 (3 Unit)
Nurmagomedov wins by 3 round decision +131 (4 Units)
Johnson wins by TKO/KO +475 (1 Unit)

Edgar wins by 3 round decision -129 (4 Units)
Stephens wins by 3 round decision +655 (1 Unit)

Pennington wins by 3 round decision +250 (3 Units)
Tate wins by 3 round decision +171 (1 Unit)


Huge hit with Pennington by decision! 
 
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Posted: #16
so what r u up so far
 
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Posted: #17
Kattyn Chookagian -175 (2 Units)

Vincente Luque -115 (3 Units)

Boetsch wins by TKO/KO +275 (1 Unit)
Natal wins by TKO/KO +360 (1 Unit)

Johnson/Nurmagomedov Over 2.5 -145 (3 Unit)
Nurmagomedov wins by 3 round decision +131 (4 Units)
Johnson wins by TKO/KO +475 (1 Unit)

Edgar wins by 3 round decision -129 (4 Units)
Stephens wins by 3 round decision +655 (1 Unit)

Pennington wins by 3 round decision +250 (3 Units)
Tate wins by 3 round decision +171 (1 Unit)

Romero wins by TKO/KO +375 (1 Unit)
Weidman wins by TKO/KO +390 (2 Units)
 
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Posted: #18
Kowalkiewicz wins by 5 round decision +511 (2 Units)
Jedrzejczyk wins by 5 round decision -111 (3 Units)

DRAW-Thompson wins inside distance +111 (6 Units)
DRAW-Thompson wins by 5 round decision +322 (1 Unit)

McGregor wins inside distance +104 (5 Units)
McGregor wins in round 1 +250 (2 Units)
McGregor wins in round 2 +600 (1 Unit)




+21.7 Units on the night!!! What a fight card and night!!! 
 
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Posted: #19
Khabib Nurmagomedov wins fastest SUB +1000 (1 Unit)

Chris Weidman wins fastest KO +775 (1 Unit)
Conor McGregor wins fastest KO +350 (1 Unit)

Stephens/Edgar Best Fight +700 (1 Unit)
Kowalkiewicz/Jedrzejczyk Best Fight +400 (1 Unit)

Under 1.5 Fights to end in submission -117 (1 Unit)


Forgot to grade these...Another 7 Units

+28.7 Units total on the night.  
 
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Posted: #20
Nice job Papa
 
 
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Posted: #21
Quote Originally Posted by BWS77:

Nice job Papa


Thanks, bro.  How nice was that Luque KO?  Thing of beauty.  He's a guy to look out for.  Going to be on my radar for future fights.  Glad you were able to jump on that one.  
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