UFC 265: Lewis cs Gane

YTD 7-17

-7.755 units

Fun card coming up this weekend.

Early Prelim thoughts, 

Munoz vs Simmons 

Both of these fighters are coming off losses in there UFC debuts. Both very different outcomes. Simmons lost in the 1st round by TKO, Giga with a nice head kick and finished him off on the ground. Munoz lost a UD against Maness after losing a point for several warnings with low shots. This fight was originally slated for April 24th but was cancelled because a rib injury for Simmons. Munoz opening up as -225/-260 depending on the book, which I think is a fair line. Simmons didn't show much at all against Giga who is a good fighter. Munoz against a very good opponent Nate Maness showed a solid set of skills and nearly finished the fight in the first round. Munoz cardio did look to fade as the fight went on, but was always in the fight. Maness is a very big fighter compared to his opponent Jamey Simmons, and I think Munoz will have no issues dragging Simmons down and battering him up or even submitting him. I smell big trouble here for Simmons.

Leonardo vs Gatto 

Not a ton of insight on this fight. Leonardo lost her UFC debut against a very good prospect Fiorot back in January of this year. Gatto has been trying to make her UFC debut since 2019 and hasn’t fought in 3 years. She was forced to pull out of 2 UFC matches in 2019 due to injury, then again in 2020 due to travel restrictions caused by COVID. One thing Leonardo showed in her UFC debut against Fiorot is that she’s tough, and isn’t scared to march forward and control the pace. Gatto on the other hand is comfortable on her back and will look for submissions. Odds have this as a coin flip, which I think is warranted, but I lean Leonardo with more paths to victory.

John’s vs dos Santos 

Interesting bantamweight fight here. Fight was cancelled in July due to dos Santos having covid. Johns opening up around -220 in this fight, which in my opinion is a little high. Johns is the superior fighter, but I think Dos Santos experience might do him some good in this fight. Johns is coming of a victory in his last fight with a 3rd round uppercut KO. John’s is very athletic, has good movement and speed and is a very good wrestler. dos Santo’s has the experience and possesses solid power and is a very aggressive fighter. I think at times John’s forgets about his wrestling and relies on his athleticism too much, and that could get him in trouble here. In my opinion, dos Santos will look to make this a dirty fight, and might even look for a few take downs of his own to frustrate John’s. I will wait and see where the odds finish, but I lean dos Santos here as a live dog.

Kape vs Osbourne 

Exciting fight at the flyweight division. Osbourne making the cut from 145 to 125 lbs. I expect a very entertaining fight, with a lot of explosive attacks in this fight. Kape came into the UFC very highly regarded, but lost 2 decisions in a row. Kape's strength's are his speed, and his ability too move in and out of exchanges while still possessing solid power. He's learned quickly that simple mistakes can cost you a fight at the UFC level, so we will see if he's learned from his mistakes. Osbourne brings some serious power from the featherweight division down to the flyweight division. The question becomes, how does he handle the weight cut? Before making any decision on this fight, I will wait for the weigh ins. 

Any thoughts or insights are always welcomed  will post thoughts on the rest of the Prelim's soon  picks will follow as I lock them in as always 

 Prelim thoughts, 

Kowalkiewicz vs Penne 

After almost a 4 year layoff, Penne returned with a split decision victory in her last fight, although she didn't look great. Kowalkiewicz is on a 4 fight losing streak dating back to September 2018. In her last fight against Yan Xiaonan she got dominated and had very little to offer her opponent. During her 4 fight losing streak she's lost 3 UD and lost once by KO. I lean Penne but don't feel great about it. 

Herman vs Menifield 

Odds have this fight ending early, which could very well be the case. Menifield is very active in the first round and possess very good power early in the fight. Herman is a veteran and should be very aware of this. Herman, I would expect tries getting this fight to the ground at some point, but Menifield has shown some good take down defense in the past. I think Menifield will take a more conservative approach in this fight, knowing cardio might play a role in this fight. I'm leaning over rounds here.

Rodriguez vs Morales 

Both of these bantamweight fighters looking to get back on track here. Both coming off two pretty bad losses. Rodriguez got knocked out last fight & Morales got leg kicked to death. Rodriguez throws heavy power and has solid leg kicks, so it will be interesting to see if Morales learned anything from his last fight. Morales fighting for the first time since injuring his Achilles last summer, so that is also interesting. I like both fighter’s aggressiveness and I think this fight could have some fireworks.

Fiziev vs Green 

Prelim fight of the night, which should be very exciting. Fiziev riding a 3 fight win streak, comes into this fight with amazing power and great muay Thai. Bobby green comes into this fight after a crazy 2020. Fought 4 times last year going 3-1. Green is very durable and hasn't been finished since 2016 by Poirier. Does that change here? Odds are saying no, but Green will have his hands full. I will keep an eye on the lines and hopefully find some value here.

Prelim locked in picks, 

Munoz to win inside distance +110 - 2 units to win 2.20 units

Leonardo ML -110 - 1 unit to win 0.90 units 

Leonardo to win inside distance +333 - 0.25 units to win 0.83 units

Kape/Osbourne fight to end inside distance(YES) -120 - 1.50 units to win 1.25 units 

Penne ML +110 - 1 unit to win 1.10 units

Herman/Menifield over 1.5 rounds -120 - 2.5 units to win 2.08 units

Parlay, 

Munoz ML/ Fiziev ML - 2.5 units to win 1.72 units 

Working on finalizing main card  

Yadong vs Kenney 

This should be a good fight. Yadong is coming off a loss in his last fight against a great UFC prospect Kyler Phillips. Before that loss the 23 year old was on a 5 fight win streak. He has 22 fights at the young age of 23, so he's seen a lot and has a lot of experience. In his last fight against Phillip's he was a -170 favorite, which tells me the odds makers like this guy. He lost the fight but was always in it, and if it wasn't for the few take down's he could have won a decision. Yadong showed he has an iron chin, got up when he was taken down, and has solid power. Kenney also coming off a decision loss in his last bought against an aging Dominick Cruz. Kenny is a good wrestler and has good kicks, but I think hes much less explosive then Phillip's. If Yadong can keep this standing for a good portion of the fight, I think he has the clear advantage with his speed and power. 

Yadong ML +100 - 1 unit to win 1 unit

Yadong to win inside distance +350 - 0.25 units to win 0.87 units 

Torres vs Hill 

Rematch from 2015. Both fighters have improved drastically since the 1st fight. Torres strength's are her speed and volume, and she loves too mix in take down's when she has her opponents overwhelmed. Hill has solid striking/power which she will need in this fight. She also has good clinch work and good elbow's. I think Hill will have too get on Torres early to negate Torres speed and rhythm and throw off her timing. Odds opened nearly even at the beginning of the week, but now have Torres around -150. I will take Hill as a live dog too finish this fight. 

Hill ML +125 - 0.50 units to win 0.62 units

Hill to win inside the distance +550 - 0.50 units to win 2.75 units 

Luque vs Chiesa 

Style clash here. Luque power striker, throws volume. Chiesa wants too grapple and wrestle for 3 rounds. I cant find any value here. For now I'm passing on this fight. 

PASS

Aldo vs Munhoz 

Both guys coming off victories. Aldo on the wrong end of his career. On paper he's 34 years old, but we all know that isn't accurate. He's been in some serious war's and has a ton of mileage. Munhoz looked decent in his last fight against Rivera so should be a solid fight here. I think leg kick's play a big role in this fight, which I think could open up the fight in general. I cant back a side here, but I will throw a little on this fight ending inside the distance. 

Aldo/Munhoz fight to end inside distance(YES) +137 - 1 unit to win 1.37 units 

Lewis vs Gane 

Passing on this fight for now. I will see how the odds close, and see if I can find something I like.

PASS

Prelim locked in picks, 

Munoz to win inside distance +110 - 2 units to win 2.20 units

Leonardo ML -110 - 1 unit to win 0.90 units 

Leonardo to win inside distance +333 - 0.25 units to win 0.83 units

Kape/Osbourne fight to end inside distance(YES) -120 - 1.50 units to win 1.25 units 

Penne ML +110 - 1 unit to win 1.10 units

Herman/Menifield over 1.5 rounds -120 - 2.5 units to win 2.08 units

Parlay, 

Munoz ML/ Fiziev ML - 2.5 units to win 1.72 units 

Main Card locked in picks, 

Yadong ML +100 - 1 unit to win 1 unit

Yadong to win inside distance +350 - 0.25 units to win 0.87 units

Hill ML +125 - 0.50 units to win 0.62 units

Hill to win inside the distance +550 - 0.50 units to win 2.75 units 

Aldo/Munhoz fight to end inside distance(YES) +137 - 1 unit to win 1.37 units 

I like the Penne bet, GL tonight.

Good post

SomeGuy BOL tonight 

Stuckmojo  thank you! 

Joe  

adding++++ 

Rodriquez vs Morales fight too end inside distance(YES) +100 - 1 unit to win 1 unit 

Prelim locked in picks, 

Munoz to win inside distance +110 - 2 units to win 2.20 units - WIN 

Leonardo ML -110 - 1 unit to win 0.90 units - LOSS

Leonardo to win inside distance +333 - 0.25 units to win 0.83 units - LOSS

Kape/Osbourne fight to end inside distance(YES) -120 - 1.50 units to win 1.25 units - WIN 

Penne ML +110 - 1 unit to win 1.10 units - WIN 

Herman/Menifield over 1.5 rounds -120 - 2.5 units to win 2.08 units - WIN 

Parlay, 

Munoz ML/ Fiziev ML - 2.5 units to win 1.72 units - WIN 

5-3 +6.1 units 

Green/Fiziev fight was crazy!

Main Card locked in picks, 

Yadong ML +100 - 1 unit to win 1 unit

Yadong to win inside distance +350 - 0.25 units to win 0.87 units

Hill ML +125 - 0.50 units to win 0.62 units

Hill to win inside the distance +550 - 0.50 units to win 2.75 units 

Aldo/Munhoz fight to end inside distance(YES) +137 - 1 unit to win 1.37 units

adding++++ 

Yadong wins in round 1 +750 - 0.25 units to win 1.87 units 

adding++++ 

Luque ML -110 - 1.5 units to win 1.36 units 

Banking on Luque being able too keep this standing for a portion of this fight. I think if he fights off Chiesa's take downs early, it might frustrate him. Hard too pass up almost even odds for Luque in this fight. 

adding++++

Gane by submission or decision +220 - 1.50 units to win 3.30 units 

Derek Lewis wins in round 1 +1000 - 0.25 units to win 2.50 units 

Derek Lewis wins in round 2 +1400 - 0.25 units to win 3.50 units  

Lewis   OV 3.5 Rounds

Main Card locked in picks, 

Yadong ML +100 - 1 unit to win 1 unit - WIN 

Yadong to win inside distance +350 - 0.25 units to win 0.87 units - LOSS

Hill ML +125 - 0.50 units to win 0.62 units - LOSS 

Hill to win inside the distance +550 - 0.50 units to win 2.75 units - LOSS 

Aldo/Munhoz fight to end inside distance(YES) +137 - 1 unit to win 1.37 units - LOSS 

Luque ML -110 - 1.5 units to win 1.36 units - WIN 

Gane by submission or decision +220 - 1.50 units to win 3.30 units - LOSS

Derek Lewis wins in round 1 +1000 - 0.25 units to win 2.50 units - LOSS 

Derek Lewis wins in round 2 +1400 - 0.25 units to win 3.50 units - LOSS 

7-11 +3.96 units 

YTD 14-28 -3.79 units