UFC Fight Night 104 Money Makers

Last week's UFC card went 11-0, but each event is its own crazy entity, so don't expect the same types of results just because the last one was a success. I actually like a lot of bets on this card (as you can see), but nothing necessarily stands out to me in terms of a sure thing. Therefore, I'm going to be doing a lot of mixing and matching throughout all of my plays. I lowered my risk amount so that I could play a bit higher volume than I normally would. This is far more bets than I would typically have, so don't be alarmed. I wouldn't expect everyone to be able (or want) to tail every single bet. But I'm including some write-ups on each fight below and you can use that info along with my bets to determine what things you feel comfortable wagering on. Good luck if you decide to play anything!

UFC Fight Night 104

3 Unit Play
Vick/Trujillo Under 3 Rounds (-240)

2 Unit Plays
Vick/Trujillo Under 3 Rounds + A. Grasso (-115)
O. Saint Preux + A. Grasso (-125)
J. Andrade + A. Grasso (-180)
C. Blaydes + A. Grasso (-125)
Rountree/Jolly Under 3 Rounds + A. Grasso (-130)
Vick/Trujillo Under 3 Rounds + Grasso/Herrig Over 1 Round (-135)
C. Blaydes + J. Andrade + Grasso/Herrig Over 1 Round (-115)
J. Andrade + O. Saint Preux (-180)
C. Blaydes + O. Saint Preux (-125)
Vick/Trujillo Under 3 Rounds + O. Saint Preux (-115)
Saint Preux/Oezdemir Under 3 Rounds + Vick/Trujillo Under 3 Rounds (-110)
J. Andrade + Saint Preux/Oezdemir Under 3 Rounds (-165)
Rountree/Jolly Under 3 Rounds + Saint Preux/Oezdemir Under 3 Rounds (-125)
J. Andrade + Vick/Trujillo Under 3 Rounds (-145)

1 Unit Plays
O. Saint Preux Wins Inside the Distance (-140)
A. Hamilton + A. Grasso (-105)
C. Skelly + A. Grasso (-120)
T. Torres + A. Grasso (-125)
Saint Preux/Oezdemir Under 3 Rounds + A. Grasso (-125)
Blaydes/Milstead Under 3 Rounds + A. Grasso (-120)
Torres/Rawlings Over 2 Rounds + A. Grasso (-150)
A. Hamilton + O. Saint Preux (+100)
Rountree/Jolly Under 3 Rounds + J. Andrade + O. Saint Preux (+100)
C. Skelly + O. Saint Preux (-120)
T. Torres + O. Saint Preux (-125)
C. Blaydes + Saint Preux/Oezdemir Under 3 Rounds (-125)
C. Skelly + Saint Preux/Oezdemir Under 3 Rounds (-115)
T. Torres + Saint Preux/Oezdemir Under 3 Rounds (-120)
J. Andrade + A. Hamilton (-125)
C. Blaydes + J. Andrade + A. Grasso (+105)
C. Skelly + J. Andrade (-155)
Over 3½ KO/TKOs (-150)

*Plays are on a scale of 1-5 units


2017 Record: 12-4 (+24.65 units)

Here are some quick thoughts on each of the fights from my perspective:

Bermudez/Korean Zombie: This fight is obviously tough to call due to the HUGE layoff by the Korean Zombie. There’s basically no telling how he’ll look in there. Even if he was his old self and at 100%, I still think this is a tough matchup for him. Basically, I see this fight going as such: Korean Zombie will have some ring rust and need a round or two to get acclimated. Bermudez will push a high pace and score some takedowns. Bermudez will likely be up on the cards after the first few rounds, but the longer the fight goes, the more opportunities KZ will have to catch him on the chin or snatch a sub. Bermudez, for all his positive traits, does happen to be a bit “chinny” and seems to get dropped nearly every fight. To his credit, he is great at recovering fairly quickly when he does get hit, so he’s not necessarily out of it if he gets clipped. In the end, I think Bermudez lands most of the offense throughout the course of the fight, avoids a few potentially scary moments from KZ, and goes on to score a late finish or wins a clear decision.

Prediction: Bermudez by Decision

Betting Tip: I honestly feel like I could make a case for a bet on either guy. With the current Bermudez line only at -185, though, I would give a slight recommendation on a small play on Bermudez at that price. Otherwise, it’s probably best to sit back and pass on this main event.
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Grasso/Herrig: Grasso is a talented up-and-comer who I feel the UFC is hoping to push and market as best they can (hence the co-main event slot). Grasso should hold advantages in striking, pushing the pace, and cardio. Herrig is the more seasoned veteran and did score a nice submission win over Curran in her last fight out, but I think Grasso has the higher ceiling and is just going to be too athletic and more technical on the feet than Herrig. If Herrig can somehow get a few takedowns and make this ugly, perhaps this becomes a closer fight, but all signs point to a clear Grasso decision in my eyes.

Prediction: Grasso by Decision

Betting Tip: Herrig is definitely no pushover, but this seems like a decent matchup for Grasso and I think she is a decent option for parlay material at -325. A small play on a “Grasso by Decision” prop at -120 isn’t a horrible bet either.
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Vick/Trujillo: Another tough fight to call. Vick stands at 6’3 and looked massive standing next to Trujillo at the weigh-ins (he’ll sport a 6-inch reach advantage as well). But we saw in Vick’s last outing against Dariush, that he can be rocked. That’s precisely what Trujillo’s specialty is. Trujillo is going to try to close the distance quickly and try to land a KO blow, while Vick will try to use his length and jab to keep Trujillo at range. Vick is crafty in there but doesn’t have the best striking defense. However, Trujillo typically gasses out in fights that go beyond a round and he’s also shown a high amount of “quit” in him at any signs of adversity. This fight either ends in an early KO win for Trujillo or Vick survives an early scare and wears Trujillo down before eventually locking up a submission.

Prediction: Trujillo by TKO

Betting Tip: As stated above, I think Trujillo lands an early KO or he gasses and Vick takes over the fight in the later rounds (probably stopping an exhausted Trujillo). This fight is basically a pick’em and one that is probably worth staying away from in terms of picking a side. However, I do think there is plenty of value in betting that the fight does not go the distance. It currently sits at -240 on 5Dimes and will be one of my larger plays on the card.
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O. Saint Preux/Oezdemir: OSP is on a 2-fight losing streak, but one of those losses was to Jon Jones and he lasted all 5 rounds to his credit. He did get taken out cleanly by Manuwa in his last fight and in my opinion, is coming back to fight again too soon. Having said that, this still seems to be a bit of a good matchup for OSP to get back on the winning track. Oezdemir comes in on short notice and OSP likely will be able to knock him out. It’s hard to trust OSP on a consistent basis, though, and like I said, I feel he’s coming back a bit too soon from a brutal KO in his last fight.

Prediction: OSP by KO

Betting Tip: This seems to be a bit of a “gimme” fight for OSP but nothing is ever a sure thing in MMA. OSP is probably worth a small play at -320, as well as a shot at him winning ITD (inside the distance) at -140. I’ll also be covering my bases by making a bet that the fight doesn’t go the distance, just in case Oezdemir cracks him with something out of nowhere.
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Hamilton/Fortuna: Another kind of weird matchup. Fortuna is going to be MASSIVELY undersized in this fight. Hamilton is a natural heavyweight and Fortuna has only been fighting previously at middleweight/light heavyweight. Part of me feels like the UFC is giving Hamilton a bit of a layup here, due to the fact that they fed him to N’Gannou in his last fight. Who knows though? I’ve never been very high on Hamilton, but that being said, he should still probably win this one.

Prediction: Hamilton by KO

Betting Tip: A small play on Hamilton is probably worth it at -200. I think he either scores a KO at some point or wins a pretty clear decision, just based on the huge size advantage alone.

Andrade/Hill: When I first saw the lines come out last week, I saw Andrade at around -200 and told myself that I’d likely be betting her for sure at that price. Almost a week later and that line has steamed all the way up to -550. Wow lol. At that price, it makes things very difficult from a betting perspective, especially considering it’s women’s MMA. That being said, Andrade should cruise here. She’s look like an absolute beast since dropping down from bantamweight and I think she could pose a serious threat to Joanna Champion if she’s given the opportunity. She reminds me of a female Jon Lineker. She has the small, compact frame, chiseled, and throws cinderblocks for fists. Hill was a bit underwhelming in her first go-around with the UFC, but has since rattled off 4 straight wins in Invicta. She does look improved, but I just don’t think her style matches up well with Andrade. Hill doesn’t really have power in her hands and Andrade has good takedowns and top control, to go along with a slick submission game as well. Too many weapons to deal with for Hill and I see her losing this one decisively.

Prediction: Andrade by TKO

Betting Tip: While I predicted Andrade by KO, I honestly could see her winning by any method (KO/TKO, submission, decision), so don’t take that prediction too literally. In the end, I think Andrade is a useful cog in a parlay of some sorts, but at -550, I wouldn’t get too crazy. I definitely don’t think there’s value in Hill at that price either, though, so it’s either Andrade in a parlay or pass.
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Blaydes/Milstead: Milstead will be trying to unload the power in his hands, but Blaydes is a tough customer (see the N’Gannou fight) and also has a huge wrestling advantage. I think Milstead comes in winging punches, Blaydes shifts levels and shoots a double leg, then smothers Milstead from top position. I think this happens a few different times until Blaydes eventually stops Milstead with strikes. This fight probably won’t go the distance.

Prediction: Blaydes by TKO

Betting Tip: The line on Blaydes is a bit high for my usual liking at -310, but I still think he gets the job done here. I recommend a play on Blaydes at that price for solid parlay material. A look at a prop of Blaydes ITD at -130 and the fight not going the distance at -260 are also both solid considerations.
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Skelly/Guretzemacher: I don’t know a ton about Gruetzemacher but from the little I do know, it seems that he doesn’t pose too much of a threat to Skelly. Skelly should be able to outwork him on his way to a clear decision victory, with the possibility of a submission if the opportunity presents itself.

Prediction: Skelly by Decision

Betting Tip: I like Skelly in this spot at -260 and will be betting him as a medium play.
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Tanaka/Ramos: Ramos makes his UFC debut and he seems like he has some potential. Out of all of the fights on the card, I feel like Ramos is one of the better underdog plays if I were to make one. Tanaka is quick and I’m sure there will be plenty of scrambles, but he always seems to find himself in some precarious positions along the way. I think Ramos has a decent shot here, but the value has been sapped from the opening line as the week has gone by and I don’t quite think there’s enough there anymore to warrant a bet.

Prediction: Ramos by Decision

Betting Tip: As stated above, I would have liked Ramos when he was more in the +150 to +175 range from earlier in the week. At +125, I just don’t think there is enough value there to justify a bet at this point without seeing more from this kid. If anything, I think this is a dog or pass situation and I’ll be passing.
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Torres/Rawlings: Not much to say here. These two fought 3 years ago in Invicta and Torres won a decision. I think Torres is still a better fighter than Rawlings at this point. I think Torres wins this by decision and this fight goes over the total rounds.

Prediction: Torres by Decision

Betting Tip: I like Torres in this matchup and will be making a play on her at -290. I also think there is value in the “Over” and a “Torres by Decision” prop at -140.
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Price/Morono: I’m not sure how much I learned from Price’s last outing against Thatch, as Thatch has clearly become a bust in the UFC. Morono doesn’t seem like he’s anything special but seems tough as nails and just outworks his opponent late in fights to steal a win. The odds reflect this fight as a 50/50 toss-up and I would agree.

Prediction: Morono by Decision??

Betting Tip: Stay far, far away

Rountree/Jolly: Rountree has power in his hands but zero ground game. Jolly has a ground game. You can probably see where this is going. Rountree either gets the 1st round KO or Jolly survives the early onslaught and takes Rountree down and submits him. It’s really anyone’s guess.

Prediction: Rountree by KO

Betting Tip: Not sure I want to touch a side in this one. If I had to guess, I say that Rountree gets the early KO, but I’m not sure I want to bet on it with that ground game of his. I think there is value in the fight not going the full 15 minutes at -350, though, so I’ll be playing that in a few parlays.

UFC Fight Night 104

3 Unit Play
Vick/Trujillo Under 3 Rounds (-240)

2 Unit Plays
Vick/Trujillo Under 3 Rounds + A. Grasso (-115)
O. Saint Preux + A. Grasso (-125)
J. Andrade + A. Grasso (-180)
C. Blaydes + A. Grasso (-125)
Rountree/Jolly Under 3 Rounds + A. Grasso (-130)
Vick/Trujillo Under 3 Rounds + Grasso/Herrig Over 1 Round (-135)
C. Blaydes + J. Andrade + Grasso/Herrig Over 1 Round (-115)
J. Andrade + O. Saint Preux (-180)
C. Blaydes + O. Saint Preux (-125)
Vick/Trujillo Under 3 Rounds + O. Saint Preux (-115)
Saint Preux/Oezdemir Under 3 Rounds + Vick/Trujillo Under 3 Rounds (-110)
J. Andrade + Saint Preux/Oezdemir Under 3 Rounds (-165)
Rountree/Jolly Under 3 Rounds + Saint Preux/Oezdemir Under 3 Rounds (-125)
J. Andrade + Vick/Trujillo Under 3 Rounds (-145)

1 Unit Plays
O. Saint Preux Wins Inside the Distance (-140)
A. Hamilton + A. Grasso (-105)
C. Skelly + A. Grasso (-120)
T. Torres + A. Grasso (-125)
Saint Preux/Oezdemir Under 3 Rounds + A. Grasso (-125)
Blaydes/Milstead Under 3 Rounds + A. Grasso (-120)
Torres/Rawlings Over 2 Rounds + A. Grasso (-150)
A. Hamilton + O. Saint Preux (+100)
Rountree/Jolly Under 3 Rounds + J. Andrade + O. Saint Preux (+100)
C. Skelly + O. Saint Preux (-120)
T. Torres + O. Saint Preux (-125)
C. Blaydes + Saint Preux/Oezdemir Under 3 Rounds (-125)
C. Skelly + Saint Preux/Oezdemir Under 3 Rounds (-115)
T. Torres + Saint Preux/Oezdemir Under 3 Rounds (-120)
J. Andrade + A. Hamilton (-125)
C. Blaydes + J. Andrade + A. Grasso (+105)
C. Skelly + J. Andrade (-155)
Over 3½ KO/TKOs (-150)

*Plays are on a scale of 1-5 units


Event Record: 6-27 (-38 units)
2017 Record: 18-31 (-13.35 units)

Recap: Isn't this always how it seems to go? You go 11-0 one week, get a little confidence in yourself, get a little carried away the following event and place way too many bets, and then it backfires. Honestly, I look at the bets I placed and wonder what the hell I was thinking. 33 bets on one event? Lol talk about amateur hour. Of course, had OSP or Grasso won either of their close decisions, maybe I'm singing a different tune. But regardless, I should have known better at this point in my betting career that I was being too aggressive.

I honestly just thought I had a good read on several of those fights. And if you read my write-ups, I feel like I actually knew what I was talking about for the most part. OSP & Grasso killed me. OSP just looked AWFUL in there. Just awful. I was worried he was rushing back in to fight too soon after his KO loss to Manuwa, but I didn't expect him to lose a decision. Figured he'd get cracked by something wild if anything and I'd at least hit the under bet. In my opinion, OSP should have gotten the nod from the judges there. I thought he clearly lost the 1st, clearly won the 3rd, and eeked out a boring 2nd round. But to be honest, he deserves the loss. That was a softball that the UFC lobbed him and he failed miserably. Looked flat-footed, no sense or urgency, no movement, looked like he didn't even want to be there. Still think he should have won a split, but he blew it. That's 4 losses in his last 5. Bellator might be calling soon....

Grasso was the other huge disappointment. What the hell was she doing out there for the first 10 minutes? She looked like she had never fought before in her life! Throwing these lazy kicks that had no power behind them and whiffing almost every time. Refusing to engage and just let Herrig piece her up for 2 rounds before she finally realized she was losing and turned it up in the 3rd. Her performance in the 3rd round was more of what I was expecting out of her the entire fight. P.S. how did one judge give all 3 rounds to Herrig? I thought for ONCE, maybe I was going to be on the right side of a horrible home-cooking judges' decision there and maybe 2 judges would give Grasso the 1st. Nope. They gave it to Herrig and deservedly so. I know Grasso is still young but she is far from a rookie out there. She looked like a deer in the headlights. Herrig was the perfect veteran test for her that she should have passed with flying colors. Fail.

And there you have it. I tried to mix and match my bets up across the board with there being so many -300+ favorites on the card tonight. The first half of the night went according to plan, but once Hamilton go KO'd by a dude 45 pounds lighter than him, it all started to unravel for me lol. Almost makes it a bit embarrassing to spend all that time and effort writing out analysis and predictions for each fight, only to lose a ton on the event as a whole. That's how it goes when you bet on this crazy sport though and I won't shy away from a bad night like this. Sometimes a night like this is a good reminder for me to get back to the drawing board and not be so reckless with my wagers. I got knocked down tonight, but I'll be back next week for the PPV. Good luck to the rest of you and see you next week!