UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs Till

YTD 25-43 -7.29 units 

Good weekend of fight's this past weekend. This weekend's card is looking solid again. 

Be Back later in the week with some picks & insight. 

Martinez vs Rojo 

Good opening fight on this card. Both fighter's coming off losses earlier this year. Martinez is the more technical fighter in this fight, but he's coming off a brutal KO against Davey Grant. Martinez has solid striking and used kick's to manage range and distance. Martinez also has solid take down defense which he might need in this fight. Rojo lost his UFC debut back in March. He looked solid in that fight, but his cardio seemed too fade him later in the fight, and ended up getting stopped in the 3rd round. Rojo has good wrestling which I think he will need in this fight in order too have a chance. He's the more gritty fighter, but the less technical fighter who find's himself getting hit more often then not. I like this fight too finish inside the distance if Martinez manages too keep this standing. 

Lungiambula vs Barriault 

Another interesting fight here. Both guy's coming off wins in there last bouts. Barriault is the favorite currently, and I think it's because he's the more well rounded fighter. Before his last fight, he was on a skid, and looked pretty awful in those fights.  Dalcha is a former heavyweight coming off a UD victory. Dalcha throw's with power, but also has solid grappling and ground game when he decides to use it. Like many power punches, they seem too fall in love with that, which most times get's them in trouble. Dalcha has talked about fighting smarter, with better fighting IQ, and in this fight I think that will be very important. I like Dalcha as a live dog, but I see more value in this fight going the distance at + odds in a more conservative, measured fight. 

Erosa vs Jourdain 

Short notice fight here. Jourdain was originally slated too face Lerone Murphy. This fight will be at a catch weight.  Erosa coming off a 1st round KO loss back in June. Before that he was riding a solid 3 fight win streak. Will he be in shape? Interesting especially since this is being done at catch weight. Jourdain fought Rojo in his last fight and looked solid. At times in that fight he looked like he was going to lose but kept fighting and eventually stopped Rojo. He's a good striker and likes to fight with a dirty style. He has shown in previous fight's hes vulnerable on the ground and can get taken down. I think Erosa game plan should be clear, avoid a fire fight, get this to the ground and score some points. Will Erosa be in shape to do so? Will Jourdain be able too keep this standing? I think that's the real question in this fight, but Erosa sitting at +165 I think is worth a look. I will watch these lines as the week rolls on. 

Shore vs Sholinian 

Another short notice fight here. This is the 3rd opponent Shore was supposed to fight this weekend. He's a massive -550 favorite in this fight. Shore is 3-0 in the UFC. He is an outstanding wrestler and will always be looking for the take down's. Sholinian is making his UFC debut. He also is a good wrestler, and has solid grappling. Sholinian is big for the weight class and uses his strength to his advantage. It will be interesting too see what happens if Sholinian ends up on top, how will Shore respond? Shore has shown in the past he will pull guard too work off his back, but that might not be the best idea against someone like Liudvik. Most likely will pass on this fight. 

Kim vs McCann 

First ladies fight of the night. Odds have this pretty much even. Both ladies coming off UD losses in their last fights. Kim has a 10 inch reach advantage. McCann has shown in her last 2 fight's when she's on the ground, she gets controlled and has very little ability to get up. I think Kim can strike with her if it stay's on the feet, but also can take her down and use her size to control her. I lean Kim with more path's to victory. 

Vendramini vs Pimblett 

First fight of the main card. UFC debut for Pimblett but has plenty of experience in MMA. Pimblett is a good striker but has even better Grappling and solid ground game. Luigi on the other hand is 1-2 in the UFC. He's a very tough fighter, and throw's with lots of power. I like Pimblett in this fight, but at current odds, against someone with the power of Luigi, I think I will sit back and watch and see how he handles his UFC debut. 

Rountree vs Bukauskas 

Both fighter's coming in riding 2 fight losing streaks. Both guys are desperate for a win here, especially Rountree who hasn't won since early 2019. Both fighter's prefer too keep this standing, which I think favors Rountree, but I think Bukauskas must know how horrible Rountree is on the ground. I think if Bukauskas mixes up his game plan here he should have no issues winning this fight, but if turns into a striking battle, I favor Rountree. Another fight I might pass on, unless i find a prop I like later in the week. 

Morono vs Zawada 

Close fight here. Odds opened with Morono as a -180 favorite, but since has come down quite a bit. Currently sitting a -135, I lean the underdog Zawada in this fight. Morono is a good striker, good technique and solid grappling. His knock would be he's inconsistent from fight to fight. One fight looks great, next not so much. Zawada is coming of a loss in his last fight against a really good fighter in Emeev. I think Zawada is the more complete well rounded fighter, and for that reason I will take the + money with Zawada. 

Aspinall vs Spivak 

First and only heavyweight fight of the night. Short notice Fight for Spivak here. Both guys riding win streaks. Aspinall is the clear favorite , but this wont be easy, especially if Spivak finds a way to the ground. Aspinall has great striking, fast hands and is a black belt. Spivak is a wrestler, and that is what he will want to do here in order to secure a victory. I like the over 1.5 rounds here at + money, and I feel like Aspinall will be aware of the take downs and will feel his way around the fight. 

Brunson vs Till 

Great main event. Brunson 4 fight win streak & will look too continue that against a very good fighter in Till. Excited to see how this ones play's out. Brunson in his win streak has turned to his wrestling, in which hes dominated his opponents. Till is the plus striker, but Brunson might have him on edge and worried about the take down all fight. Till also hasn't fought in over a year, and has had big layoffs in between fights. I lean Brunson with the plus odds, but I find it very hard to bed against someone like Till. I will most likely pass on a side here, and sit back and enjoy this fight. 

BOL this week Paletta! On the same page for Aspinall o1.5!

Prelim picks 

Martinez/Rojo inside distance -120 - 1.5 units to win 1.25 units 

Lungiambula ML +150 - 2 units to win 3 units  

Erosa ML +150 - 1 unit to win 1.50 units 

Sholiniaan ml +500 - 0.50 units to win 2.50 units 

Kim by decision +137 - 1 unit to win 1.37 units 

Main Card picks 

Zawada ML +110 - 2 units to win 2.20 units 

Aspinall/Spivak over 1.5 rounds +100 - 1.50 units to win 1.50 units 

@The_Fist

1-5 / -5.5 units 

YTD 26-48 -12.79 units 

Much needed week off.. will be back next weekend, GL as always