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#1
35-25 +18.3
I'm not too hot on these Brazil cards, so tread lightly. Some leans:
Dolloway/Machida O2.5 +110
CB trains with Ryan Bader and has a very similar fighting style. I imagine all they've worked on in this camp is to throw punches and clinch with his shoulders back and his chin tucked on his chest, which actually, Dolloway does much better than Ryan. He can't reach for anything or extend, and they know this. I hate to say it, but I imagine this will be somewhat boring with machida looking to counter and CB not giving him much to counter.
Barao vs Gagnon is likely a pass for me. There are just too many question marks. Nova Uniao has had a bad run of sorts - not counting the best fighter in the world. Claudia didn't look very impressive vs Joanna and threw a sucker punch after the bell, JDS looked a bit flat, Renan was dominated and then missed weight. On paper, this is Renan's fight. Gagnon doesn't have the striking to keep up or the wrestling to take it down, but what Renan will we see? I have no idea.
Pat Cummins -155 over Carlos Junior
Antonio enjoys the grapple. He's got a good top control game and very heavy mount. But we'll never see that. Cummins will stay on top and GnP his way to an easy decision or late stoppage.
Rashid Magomedov + Elias Silverio goes to decision -180
These guys are both basically undefeated (Rashid lost a split decision in 2010) so their best opponents have been their last 5 fights. Rashid is 5-0 with 5 decisions in his last 5, Silverio is 5-0 with 4 decisions. His only finish was in the last minute of a 3rd round. These guys fight to win rounds, and while there's nothing wrong with that, this fight will be a close decision one way or the other. I lean Magomedov, but not enough to bet it.
Carneiro +110 over Niinimaki
Carneiro is slightly more technical and high volume than Tom on the feet, who often loops his punches. Carneiro will also have a length advantage to work leg kicks. Tom usually enjoys taking fights to the ground because he enjoys a strength advantage against most everyone at 145. That will be a bad idea against Renato.
More to come as the week moves on. Good luck.
I'm not too hot on these Brazil cards, so tread lightly. Some leans:
Dolloway/Machida O2.5 +110
CB trains with Ryan Bader and has a very similar fighting style. I imagine all they've worked on in this camp is to throw punches and clinch with his shoulders back and his chin tucked on his chest, which actually, Dolloway does much better than Ryan. He can't reach for anything or extend, and they know this. I hate to say it, but I imagine this will be somewhat boring with machida looking to counter and CB not giving him much to counter.
Barao vs Gagnon is likely a pass for me. There are just too many question marks. Nova Uniao has had a bad run of sorts - not counting the best fighter in the world. Claudia didn't look very impressive vs Joanna and threw a sucker punch after the bell, JDS looked a bit flat, Renan was dominated and then missed weight. On paper, this is Renan's fight. Gagnon doesn't have the striking to keep up or the wrestling to take it down, but what Renan will we see? I have no idea.
Pat Cummins -155 over Carlos Junior
Antonio enjoys the grapple. He's got a good top control game and very heavy mount. But we'll never see that. Cummins will stay on top and GnP his way to an easy decision or late stoppage.
Rashid Magomedov + Elias Silverio goes to decision -180
These guys are both basically undefeated (Rashid lost a split decision in 2010) so their best opponents have been their last 5 fights. Rashid is 5-0 with 5 decisions in his last 5, Silverio is 5-0 with 4 decisions. His only finish was in the last minute of a 3rd round. These guys fight to win rounds, and while there's nothing wrong with that, this fight will be a close decision one way or the other. I lean Magomedov, but not enough to bet it.
Carneiro +110 over Niinimaki
Carneiro is slightly more technical and high volume than Tom on the feet, who often loops his punches. Carneiro will also have a length advantage to work leg kicks. Tom usually enjoys taking fights to the ground because he enjoys a strength advantage against most everyone at 145. That will be a bad idea against Renato.
More to come as the week moves on. Good luck.
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