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This is kind of an underwhelming card, especially since my favorite fighter in Brian Ortega fell out due to injury. But I'm still excited, because I will be at this one live and up close - 3rd row with end seats by the walkout. I think this card will have alot of finishes, so it should still be entertaining. I'm going props on every fight!
Ketlen Vieira wins by Submission +719
Vieira is an undefeated Brazilian training out of Nova Uniao, with a Judo black belt and BJJ brown belt. She's really slick on the ground and will have a big advantage here over the BJJ purple belt in Kelly Faszholz
Ion Cutelaba inside the distance +105
Ion Cutelaba wins by submission +1125
I'll lean towards the tough eastern European in this fight due to his experience, chin, superior knockout power, and underrated submission game. I think a Cutelaba has the advantage in every area and will win this on the ground. He's very good at all aspects of the ground game, landing powerful ground strikes will constantly grabbing ahold of limbs for positional control and potentially submissions. Looking at Wilson's record, I don't think he's fought a guy like Cutelaba before and I think Cutelaba cruises to a brutal first round win. A KO/TKO is most likely, but he could very well capitalize on a hurt Wilson giving up an arm for submission. I have action on both his ITD win, as well as submission win.
McCrory wins inside distance +115
Because Marquardt is washed up and loses everything lately. I'd normally like Tamdan to win by submission in many fights, but Marquardt is a BJJ black belt and is still competent enough to escape most submissions. I think Tamdan finshes him with strikes - though he may successfully land a choke if he has Marquardt seeing stars.
Keita Nakamura by submission +255
Nakamura is an excellent grappler and arguably elite when it comes to owning people's backs. He's a Judo fighter, but beat legit BJJ black belts at abu dahbi. More than half of his pro MMA wins are by submission and almost all of them by rear naked choke. I don't know
Hacran Dias by decision +120
I really want Andre Fili to win this fight, but I'm not sure he can do it. I don't really enjoy Hacran Dias fights as he can be quite boring at times. However he's good at implementing his unchanging game plan - taking his opponent down and owning position while landing a modest ammount of strikes - enough to avoid being stood back up. And he's done this to seasoned wrestlers. Fili likes to strike and doesn't offer alot on the ground. Unless he captures lighting in a bottle and knocks Dias out - he's going to spend 12+ minutes on his back and lose a decision.
Henrique da Silva by TKO/KO +285
I'll start by pointing out that da Silva is an undefeated 11-0 with 11 knockouts. I wonder if he will continue that streak against Joachim Christensen, who has never been finished. Christensen is a BJJ black belt and has some European grappling titles. Da Silva is a Brazilian with a BJJ purple belt - so I think he can offer modest defense if he gets taken down but he may be outmatched on the ground. I think he will have a good striking advantage in this fight and am comfortable betting his KO win - but admittedly have hedged a couple parlays with Christensen wins by submission +567
Zak Ottow by submission +668
Zak Ottow inside distance +434
Zak Ottow should have no problem winning this fight by sumission. Burkman is an aging low talent fighter with a weak ground game. Burkman is able to take an extraordinary amount of strikes without going down, but I don't see how he survives the grappling attack of BJJ brown belt in Ottow.
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