Posted:
#1
UFC on Fox 18
It's an early afternoon start time for the UFC on Fox event, with a couple of decent fights mixed in there. While looking thru the entire card, there are a LOT of fights between guys that I either simply don't trust or the circumstances surrounding their match-up make it a toss-up. I try to steer clear completely of betting on those types of fights these days and only look for once where I feel confident or I think there is tremendous value. In this case, I really like Anthony Johnson to KO Ryan Bader. I'm sure a lot of people have taken a strong stance either way on this fight. Either they believe Johnson will knock Bader out within the first 2 rounds, or Bader will weather the early storm and taken Johnson into deep waters, hoping to tire him out and make him quit. Basically, trying to emulate Daniel Cormier's plan that was successful. However, even though Bader and Cormier have similar fighting styles, lets not put Bader's wrestling credentials, clinching, and striking up there with Cormier. One of the things that made Cormier successful in the Rumble fight was his ability to take a HUGE shot early from Johnson and still be able to survive. Bader's chin is suspect in my opinion. Cormier was able to weather the storm, get inside a bit,a and take Rumble down. Bader doesn't have that same type of style. He likes to shoot for double-legs and he leaves his chin up while coming in. I personally think Rumble stuffs any takedown attempts and hits him with something big in the first 2 rounds to knock him out. This will be a large play for me and I will be sprinkling Johnson in a few parlays. However, I think that if for some reason Johnson weren't able to get that killshot early, Bader does have a chance in the later rounds to take out Rumble if Rumble gasses and quits (like he's been known to do). So in that case, I don't see this fight going a full 5 rounds. I will be utilizing that prop in several parlays as well, because I think we get a stoppage regardless of who wins.
Some quick points on the other fights I'm playing: Yes, Northcutt is still extremely green and I wouldn't be surprised if he somehow lost this fight, but with the odds all the way down to -260, I have to take a stab. The UFC wouldn't have brought in Barbarena as a late notice replacement if they were terribly concerned he would take out their golden boy. Barbarena is a tough, gritty type of fighter, but Northcutt will have obvious advantages in speed and athleticism, especially as the fight goes on and Barabarena tires. That said, I'm still looking for the best opportunity to fade Northcutt in a future bought. I did the same thing with Paige VanZant. Sooner or later, he's going to get matched up with someone who will exploit his weaknesses. I'm just not sure Barbarena is that guy. So I'll take a stab at those odds. Ortiz/Reis should be a competitive scrap, but I think Ortiz is the better striker, keeps a nice pace with high volume, and is just a little better everywhere. Finally, Caceres hasn't looked his best lately, but this seems like a clear match-up to help get him back on track. Probably keeps it standing and throws a decent amount of volume, and I wouldn't be surprised if he got it to the ground in a scramble or some sort of trip and took Fullen's back at some point for a sub. Just my thoughts. Nothing too exciting, but I think those fights are the ones that I feel most confident in. Follow along or play some of the fighters any way you feel like. Parlay them with basketball or even throw in Djokovic over Murray in the Australian Open Finals that takes place overnight. Good luck!
10 Unit Play
A. Johnson ITD (-190)
5 Unit Plays
S. Northcutt + A. Johnson (-105)
D. Ortiz + A. Johnson/R. Bader Under 5 Rounds (-130)
A. Caceres + A. Johnson/R. Bader Under 5 Rounds (-150)
L. Makashvili + A. Johnson/R. Bader Under 5 Rounds (-160)
2016 Record: 5-4 (+11.2 units)
*All plays are made on a scale of 1-10 units
It's an early afternoon start time for the UFC on Fox event, with a couple of decent fights mixed in there. While looking thru the entire card, there are a LOT of fights between guys that I either simply don't trust or the circumstances surrounding their match-up make it a toss-up. I try to steer clear completely of betting on those types of fights these days and only look for once where I feel confident or I think there is tremendous value. In this case, I really like Anthony Johnson to KO Ryan Bader. I'm sure a lot of people have taken a strong stance either way on this fight. Either they believe Johnson will knock Bader out within the first 2 rounds, or Bader will weather the early storm and taken Johnson into deep waters, hoping to tire him out and make him quit. Basically, trying to emulate Daniel Cormier's plan that was successful. However, even though Bader and Cormier have similar fighting styles, lets not put Bader's wrestling credentials, clinching, and striking up there with Cormier. One of the things that made Cormier successful in the Rumble fight was his ability to take a HUGE shot early from Johnson and still be able to survive. Bader's chin is suspect in my opinion. Cormier was able to weather the storm, get inside a bit,a and take Rumble down. Bader doesn't have that same type of style. He likes to shoot for double-legs and he leaves his chin up while coming in. I personally think Rumble stuffs any takedown attempts and hits him with something big in the first 2 rounds to knock him out. This will be a large play for me and I will be sprinkling Johnson in a few parlays. However, I think that if for some reason Johnson weren't able to get that killshot early, Bader does have a chance in the later rounds to take out Rumble if Rumble gasses and quits (like he's been known to do). So in that case, I don't see this fight going a full 5 rounds. I will be utilizing that prop in several parlays as well, because I think we get a stoppage regardless of who wins.
Some quick points on the other fights I'm playing: Yes, Northcutt is still extremely green and I wouldn't be surprised if he somehow lost this fight, but with the odds all the way down to -260, I have to take a stab. The UFC wouldn't have brought in Barbarena as a late notice replacement if they were terribly concerned he would take out their golden boy. Barbarena is a tough, gritty type of fighter, but Northcutt will have obvious advantages in speed and athleticism, especially as the fight goes on and Barabarena tires. That said, I'm still looking for the best opportunity to fade Northcutt in a future bought. I did the same thing with Paige VanZant. Sooner or later, he's going to get matched up with someone who will exploit his weaknesses. I'm just not sure Barbarena is that guy. So I'll take a stab at those odds. Ortiz/Reis should be a competitive scrap, but I think Ortiz is the better striker, keeps a nice pace with high volume, and is just a little better everywhere. Finally, Caceres hasn't looked his best lately, but this seems like a clear match-up to help get him back on track. Probably keeps it standing and throws a decent amount of volume, and I wouldn't be surprised if he got it to the ground in a scramble or some sort of trip and took Fullen's back at some point for a sub. Just my thoughts. Nothing too exciting, but I think those fights are the ones that I feel most confident in. Follow along or play some of the fighters any way you feel like. Parlay them with basketball or even throw in Djokovic over Murray in the Australian Open Finals that takes place overnight. Good luck!
10 Unit Play
A. Johnson ITD (-190)
5 Unit Plays
S. Northcutt + A. Johnson (-105)
D. Ortiz + A. Johnson/R. Bader Under 5 Rounds (-130)
A. Caceres + A. Johnson/R. Bader Under 5 Rounds (-150)
L. Makashvili + A. Johnson/R. Bader Under 5 Rounds (-160)
2016 Record: 5-4 (+11.2 units)
*All plays are made on a scale of 1-10 units
0
Pretty sure I recapped my record for the event and went 3-2, hitting my max play, and walking way with 4+ units. Did you not see Johnson pound out Bader in about a minute and a half? 
. You just joined Covers and have 1 other post entitled "John Groce head coach Illinois" In it, you state "Hey, does anyone know if this guy is mentally retarded? Thanks."
Hot Forum Topics
