Demetrious Johnson -450 vs John Moraga +350 – really feel like Johnson’s days are numbered, he’s very fast, he’s got a hell of a gas tank, and he’s very tough but he’s another decision fighter that doesn’t hurt people. I still feel like Dodson is top flyweight and will eventually get the belt, but for now its Moraga who will come forward and bully Demetrious until the end of round 5. there’s some chance that Moraga will catch him in a submission, possibly catch him with a good shot but more likely Johnson will be moving and trying to land strikes all night. Moraga won’t fade in the later rounds, Demetrious will have to hurt him with something and i just don’t see that happening. Pressure builds for “Mighty Mouse”, having had his first child and fighting in his hometown, and i see Moraga not getting the respect he deserves. I see Moraga looking like the favorite by the end of round 2 and i expect him to win.
3 units John Moraga +350
Rory MacDonald -220 vs Jake Ellenberger +190 – don’t particularly like either guy, but i have a very strong opinion on this fight. Ellenberger ok yes very good power in his hands, but for maybe 2 minutes after that a very average fighter. If Rory were to stand up with Ellenberger, he would just have to survive the 1st round and i think that he could still win this fight on his feet, BUT he’s going to do the smart thing and thats to manhandle Ellenberger, take him to the mat and beat him up. Its just a matter of how much of a beating is Jake willing to take before taping out or covering up until the ref stops it. Rory is so big and strong at welterweight, he stands straight up and can be hit but its a low percentage play to hope Ellenberger catches him with a punch in the 1st round. Big difference between these 2 fighters.
3 units Rory MacDonald -220
Jorge Masvidal -240 vs Michael Chiesa +200 – based on the way Masvidal fights(counter punching) i would be very uncomfortable laying a big number with him. i am a little surprised at this number and as it rises to -300, i have to do what i believe and thats make a play on Chiesa. the young TUF winner has his toughest test but i think he can avoid damage and make this his fight. it will be interesting to see if he can get Masvidal down, he’s shown serious finishing skills when he gets your back. Jorge came in overweight, maybe he’s overlooking him? Masvidal last finished someone in nov 2009, Chiesa finished his first 2 ufc opponents.
2 units Michael Chiesa +200
John Albert -170 vs Yaotzin Meza +150 – don’t think Albert is better than Meza, will make a small play here. Meza got ko’d by Chad Mendes in his UFC debut but i think he will redeem himself here and i just see him having better overall skills. Albert is the stronger guy but i see Meza controlling the action and maybe securing a submission. pressure is on Albert and he’s already shown he makes mistakes in the cage.
1 unit Yaotzin Meza +150
“opinions” on other fights;
Danny Castillo -180 vs Tim Means +160 – i can see many taking Means as a pretty decent underdog, but Castillo will follow the gameplan and take Means down for the majority of 15 minutes. maybe some tense moments as Means goes for the KO but Castillo seems to be at a level where he can handle the pressure. didn’t like the line and want nothing to do with this one, but its Castillo getting the win(i think)
Liz Carmouche -600 vs Jessica Andrade +475 – miles apart at this point of their careers, line could be -1500. wipeout.
Robbie Lawler -280 vs Bobby Voelker +240 – both guys have very good power, but Lawler moves much better. feels like Lawler has done a lot for being just 31 years old and i think he’s at his very best right now. Voelker got “robbed” in his last fight against Cote, and will fight hard but standing straight up and not moving his feet, the KO is going to be quck and decisive. Lawler gets another one.
good luck with your plays,
-boldtiger
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