Antonio Braga Neto -250 vs Anthony Smith +210 – it won’t take long to see how my night will go, absolutely love Braga Neto in this one. Neto doesn’t have very good standup, but he is to me one of the best takedown artists i’ve seen. when Neto gets to the ground, he’s simply awesome with strong ground n pound and very very high level jiu jitsu(reminds me of a young “big nog”) expect to see a lot more of him in the future. Smith only has a striking chance but he probably won’t get that chance as he will be dragged down and finished pretty quickly. Neto is very durable and his ability to close distance and secure takedowns will win this for him no problem. when i found out the line on this fight, i couldn’t have been more excited. easy mismatch.
3 units Antonio Braga Neto -250
Rafael Cavalcante -220 vs Thiago Silva +190 – another very strong play as i see Cavalcante rising in the ranks on his way to big things. team black house has always been high on him and its now his time to shine, in the ufc and fighting where he belongs. on the other side, Thiago seems like such a huge underdog to turn his career around with the suspensions and recent back injury. in the ring, Cavalcante is so fast and powerful, he is the most dangerous striker in the division. Thiago is a warrior but in recent fights he’s stiff and slow and i’m betting he hasn’t recovered positively from his injury. the speed is the difference and with the power of Feijao, it will only take 1 punch to end it.
2 units Rafael Cavalcante -220
Leonardo Santos -200 vs William Macario +180 – you have the solid veteran fighter(Santos) getting to slide into this final due to an injury taking on the young up and comer in Macario. i think the line is based on experience and there’s very good value on Macario, a kid who’s getting better with each fight. Santos is slow, adequate takedowns and sure a solid ground player but at 33 with 14 fights in 11 years, i see him as the gym rat who was always on the fence about taking his game to the next level. Macario, very young at 21, is fast on his feet and has shown great power earning his way to the final with a tko of Viscardi Andrade who was on a serious roll. the underdog is the better fighter right now.
2 units William Macario +180
Rodrigo Damm -140 vs Mizuto Hirota +120 – really think Hirota will win as i like his skills. Damm is done from what i can see, lost 5 of the last 7 and finished 4 times. Hirota has lost his first 2 away from japan, but a very close decision loss to Pat Healy and in his most recent fight, a dropdown to 145 lbs but a decision loss to Rani Yahya. Disturbing was the fact that Yahya was able to take Hirota down but it was Hirota who was looking like the better fighter in the 3rd round. Hirota should be good in this one, dominating the standup with ease. Damm can only win if he takes Hirota down and holds him there and from what he’s shown lately, its not happening. Hirota will be looking to finish.
2 units Mizuto Hirota +120
“Opinions” on other fights;
Karlos Vemola -150 vs Caio Magalhaes +120 – was very close to making this a play on Vemola, but saw how big Magalhaes is and will pass. still, Vemola should dominate this fight standing and i think he can stop the takedowns of Magalhaes. Truth is, Magalhaes has a long way to go, he’s not very good and Vemola is a fringe UFC fighter which should be enough for him to win this. with the size of Magalhaes, i got this vision of him getting a takedown and riding out a couple of the rounds but i think Vemola is pretty cheap. with some doubt, i pass.
Daniel Sarafian -450 vs Eddie Mendez +350 – definitely an inflated line here, just not interested in the dog enough. Mendez just doesn’t have any power and for as big as he is, he won’t break into the higher level unless he improves there. Sarafian is ok, but he can be hit and even though he’s tough i don’t see much of an advantage for him in this fight. it has the makings of a war and although i think Sarafian is beatable, i don’t think Mendez can do it. Probably some hold your breath moments for the favorite here.
Erick Silva -450 vs Jason High +350 – like Silva here to be impressive and win by ko, BUT at this price its a no play for me. Silva should be doing a lot of wrestling in practice because its the only way someone can beat him. Enter High, a wrestler who is coming in on a 7 fight win streak. Just can’t ignore the fact that High has the one skill that has shown to be Silva’s weakness. Cheering for Silva though, like him a lot.
Fabricio Werdum -300 vs Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira +250 – wish i could make a play on Big Nog but he’s on “fade-only” mode at this point; his age and the fact that his body is breaking down, although he looked ripped at weigh ins. Werdum, not one of my favorites but you have to give him credit, his standup has improved greatly over the years. both of them are up there in age, but the mileage is much higher on Nogueira with 43 fights to Werdum’s 22 fights. i will cheer for Big Nog but i think Werdum will win the fight.
good luck with your plays,
-boldtiger
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