Based solely upon metrics, If he’s able to stay on the outside of the octagon, he should be able to pick away at Garbrandt with his jab and win the majority of minutes in this fight.
Garbrandt made an effort to show more patience in his most recent win over Raphael Assuncao, against whom he turned in a buzzer-beating knockout at the end of the second-round:
However, Garbrandt only led the striking battle 20-17 after 10 full minutes of action and it’s difficult to envision him winning the volume battle over the course of 25 minutes against Font, who lands an additional 1.8 strikes per minute.
Font is also more responsible defensively (+1.38 to +0.02 significant strike margin), and Garbrandt has shown low fight IQ when he gets frustrated, standing in the pocket and swinging with essentially zero head movement, which led to three consecutive knockout losses.
While Garbrandt was a standout college wrestler, he has mostly relied upon his boxing in the UFC. He has rarely attempted takedowns, primarily using his wrestling to keep his fights standing. If Garbrandt decides to change levels in this contest, he might have more success and look like a favorite in what is currently lined as a pick’em fight, but I expect to see a striker vs. striker battle here.
against Font. But I would If this does turn into a brawl, I think he’s equally likely to finish as a result.
The betting (listed -278, implied 73.5%), and my projection thinks a stoppage is even likelier (projected -329, or 77% implied odds). However, I won’t make a play on that prop. I would on that finish prop.
Alternatively, I Still, I could see a very slow-paced first round given Garbrandt’s intentions and most recent fight. If this does get to the championship rounds, despite some big shots, I won’t be shocked.
I see slight value on Font’s knockout prop (projected +148, listed +150) and inside the distance prop (projected +139, listed +140), but not enough to make a play in the winning method market.
I in this fight, and he seemingly has more ways to win the contest since he’s more likely to win minutes and secure a decision if this does manage to go the full 25 minutes. Moreover, I give Font nearly as strong of a chance (75% of his win condition) of finding a finish as I do Garbrandt (79%).
I would relative to my projection; he offers more paths to victory. Still, this could be a high-variance brawl, and I’m keeping my wager relatively small.
The Pick: Rob Font (bet to -122, 0.5 units) / By S.Zerillo
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