Lentz/Gam ov 2 ½ rd -330 + Larkin/Philippou ov 2 ½ rd -260 + Larkin -250 =+153$50/$76.29 (2 units to win 3.05)
2014 YTD: -$24/ -0.96 units (Just started tracking from the last event)
Matt Brown vs Erick Silva- Prediction Brown via KO rd 4
Silva is a young explosive fighter who has been impressive in the early rounds but tends to gas in the later rounds when he gets pushed too hard. Silva has the slick submission game and KO power to finish most welterweights, but I see Brown weathering the early storm and staying in Silva’s face, pushing and grinding Silva out till he gets a referee stoppage in the later rounds. Brown has had problems in the past with submission artist, but Silva is too inconsistent for me to pick as a winner. But a lot of people are questioning how Brown is going to perform after coming off a long layoff due to a back injury. Although a lot of us fans are picking Brown to win due to heart and a great chin, I will avoid betting on this fight due to the injury/lay off and Silva’s inconsistency. Do not bet.
0
1 Unit= $25
Round Robin 6 picks- 4 ways (15 wagers)
Risk x15= $15 (0.6 units)
Total stake: $225 (9 units)
To win: $1598 (63.92 units)
Parlay:
Lentz/Gam ov 2 ½ rd -330 + Larkin/Philippou ov 2 ½ rd -260 + Larkin -250 =+153$50/$76.29 (2 units to win 3.05)
2014 YTD: -$24/ -0.96 units (Just started tracking from the last event)
Matt Brown vs Erick Silva- Prediction Brown via KO rd 4
Silva is a young explosive fighter who has been impressive in the early rounds but tends to gas in the later rounds when he gets pushed too hard. Silva has the slick submission game and KO power to finish most welterweights, but I see Brown weathering the early storm and staying in Silva’s face, pushing and grinding Silva out till he gets a referee stoppage in the later rounds. Brown has had problems in the past with submission artist, but Silva is too inconsistent for me to pick as a winner. But a lot of people are questioning how Brown is going to perform after coming off a long layoff due to a back injury. Although a lot of us fans are picking Brown to win due to heart and a great chin, I will avoid betting on this fight due to the injury/lay off and Silva’s inconsistency. Do not bet.
Larkin’s elusive striking style and wrestling should be enough to get a decision over the hard hitting Phillippou who is coming off of a KO loss to Rockhold. Philippou has good boxing and good takedown defense that he display against Boetsh. But I don’t see either fighter getting the finish and this fight should go to a decision with Larkin getting the nod.
Bet: Larkin and over 2 ½ rounds
Erik Koch vs Cruickshank- Koch via Decision
Both fighters have good striking and have finished opponents in spectacular fashion. Both fighters coming off of TKO/KO victories, this fight has potential to be a good stand-up battle. Both fighters’ have been dominated on the ground, but I do not see this fight hitting the ground (don’t think either fighter has an advantage on the ground). I give the striking edge to Koch with Koch getting the decision.
Bet: Skip
0
Larkins vs Philippou- Larkin via decision
Larkin’s elusive striking style and wrestling should be enough to get a decision over the hard hitting Phillippou who is coming off of a KO loss to Rockhold. Philippou has good boxing and good takedown defense that he display against Boetsh. But I don’t see either fighter getting the finish and this fight should go to a decision with Larkin getting the nod.
Bet: Larkin and over 2 ½ rounds
Erik Koch vs Cruickshank- Koch via Decision
Both fighters have good striking and have finished opponents in spectacular fashion. Both fighters coming off of TKO/KO victories, this fight has potential to be a good stand-up battle. Both fighters’ have been dominated on the ground, but I do not see this fight hitting the ground (don’t think either fighter has an advantage on the ground). I give the striking edge to Koch with Koch getting the decision.
Magny is a TUF alumi, who is coming off an upset win over a tough Umalatov. I believe the Dirty Bird brings too much to the table for Magny and he will control the stand up game and land some nasty elbows. But I did notice that Means is fighter at a higher weight class than his last UFC run. Maybe it can be a good thing since he won’t be battling the sauna/weight cut where he already has a TKO loss to the sauna.
Bet: Skip
Palelei vs Potts- Palelei via TKO rd 1
Potts is an UFC newcomer from the South Africa MMA seen. Did some research on him and seen he has some submission victories against some unknown fighters. Palelei is a Hard-Hitting heavyweight who should put Potts to sleep if he can avoid the ground (which he will). Palelei for the KO in the 1st.
Bet: Palelei
Smolka vs Cariaso- Smolka via Submission 3rd round
I have to go with my friend and teammate Louis. Louis is a tough SOB who will fight till the end and has no quit in him. Although he still fairly new to the UFC, he is going to make a splash. I see Louis staying in Cariaso’s face and grinding him and getting a finish in the 3rd round.
Bet: Smolka
0
Means vs Magny- Means via decision
Magny is a TUF alumi, who is coming off an upset win over a tough Umalatov. I believe the Dirty Bird brings too much to the table for Magny and he will control the stand up game and land some nasty elbows. But I did notice that Means is fighter at a higher weight class than his last UFC run. Maybe it can be a good thing since he won’t be battling the sauna/weight cut where he already has a TKO loss to the sauna.
Bet: Skip
Palelei vs Potts- Palelei via TKO rd 1
Potts is an UFC newcomer from the South Africa MMA seen. Did some research on him and seen he has some submission victories against some unknown fighters. Palelei is a Hard-Hitting heavyweight who should put Potts to sleep if he can avoid the ground (which he will). Palelei for the KO in the 1st.
Bet: Palelei
Smolka vs Cariaso- Smolka via Submission 3rd round
I have to go with my friend and teammate Louis. Louis is a tough SOB who will fight till the end and has no quit in him. Although he still fairly new to the UFC, he is going to make a splash. I see Louis staying in Cariaso’s face and grinding him and getting a finish in the 3rd round.
Herman has been declining (I believe) and has not looked impressive in a while. He’s struggled against ground guys and Natal brings a ground game that will grind him out for a decision.
Bet: Natal
Horiguchi vs Montague- Horiguchi via TKO rd 2
Horiguchi is a tough Japanese fighter who brings some KO power to the flyweight division. He’s coming off a KO victory over Pague while Montague is coming off a TKO loss to Dodson. Montague was ranked as one of the top 125’ers a few years ago, and he still posses a dangerous ground game. But Horiguchi has the skills to keep it on his feet and get the KO.
Bet: Horiguchi
Cabral vs Cummings- Cabral via submission rd 1
Cumming’s strength is the ground game, but Nova Uniao’s Cabral has the ground game to finish Cummings within the distance.
Bet: Skipping
0
Natal vs Herman- Natal via decision
Herman has been declining (I believe) and has not looked impressive in a while. He’s struggled against ground guys and Natal brings a ground game that will grind him out for a decision.
Bet: Natal
Horiguchi vs Montague- Horiguchi via TKO rd 2
Horiguchi is a tough Japanese fighter who brings some KO power to the flyweight division. He’s coming off a KO victory over Pague while Montague is coming off a TKO loss to Dodson. Montague was ranked as one of the top 125’ers a few years ago, and he still posses a dangerous ground game. But Horiguchi has the skills to keep it on his feet and get the KO.
Bet: Horiguchi
Cabral vs Cummings- Cabral via submission rd 1
Cumming’s strength is the ground game, but Nova Uniao’s Cabral has the ground game to finish Cummings within the distance.
I really like Wineland’s boxing skills. He has good head movement and can stay in the pocket, and he has really good takedown defense. Wineland has looked good in the UFC and has only lost to the top contenders.
Eduardo brings too many unknowns for me. Eduardo only has 1 UFC fight, and he is 35 years old, but he has an aggressive striking style that should make the fight interesting. Eduardo trains with Nova Uniao, so he trains daily with Barao & Aldo, a team that is familiar with Wineland. Although Wineland is a -600 favorite, I’m not willing to lay that much on a fighter who was having some problems in his last bout with Yves Jabouin (but he eventually got the TKO). I believe Wineland will get the win, but my gut tells me to avoid the bet.
Bet: Do not bet
Lentz vs Gamburyan- Lentz via decision
Both fighters are pretty predictable and we all know what to expect. It’s going to be a grappling match, wrestling vs Judo, and I believe Lentz will grind out a decision.
Bet: Lentz and Over 2 ½ rounds
0
Wineland vs Eduardo- Wineland via KO rd 2
I really like Wineland’s boxing skills. He has good head movement and can stay in the pocket, and he has really good takedown defense. Wineland has looked good in the UFC and has only lost to the top contenders.
Eduardo brings too many unknowns for me. Eduardo only has 1 UFC fight, and he is 35 years old, but he has an aggressive striking style that should make the fight interesting. Eduardo trains with Nova Uniao, so he trains daily with Barao & Aldo, a team that is familiar with Wineland. Although Wineland is a -600 favorite, I’m not willing to lay that much on a fighter who was having some problems in his last bout with Yves Jabouin (but he eventually got the TKO). I believe Wineland will get the win, but my gut tells me to avoid the bet.
Bet: Do not bet
Lentz vs Gamburyan- Lentz via decision
Both fighters are pretty predictable and we all know what to expect. It’s going to be a grappling match, wrestling vs Judo, and I believe Lentz will grind out a decision.
Wall is a TUF alumni and a TKO victim of Alex Garcia in his first UFC fight. Most of Wall’s win have been via decision in the Australian MMA scene. Salas brings a more well rounded game and has faced the tougher competition and holds a win over veteran Aaron Riley, Rob Emerson, and others. Salas is from Colorado’s Grudge Team, so I believe he should have the cardio advantage along with all other aspects.
Bet: Salas
Lapsley vs Tumenov- Lapsley via decision
Tumenov let me down the last time he fought. He did not look impressive and lost to the underdog Alcantra. Lapsley actually impressed me in his UFC debut and lost a close fight to Jason High. Lapsley was about to hold his own and had great top control when the fight when to the ground. Although he lost, I believe his grappling skills can get him the decision.
Bet: Lapsley (my underdog pick)
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Salas vs Wall- Salas via decision
Wall is a TUF alumni and a TKO victim of Alex Garcia in his first UFC fight. Most of Wall’s win have been via decision in the Australian MMA scene. Salas brings a more well rounded game and has faced the tougher competition and holds a win over veteran Aaron Riley, Rob Emerson, and others. Salas is from Colorado’s Grudge Team, so I believe he should have the cardio advantage along with all other aspects.
Bet: Salas
Lapsley vs Tumenov- Lapsley via decision
Tumenov let me down the last time he fought. He did not look impressive and lost to the underdog Alcantra. Lapsley actually impressed me in his UFC debut and lost a close fight to Jason High. Lapsley was about to hold his own and had great top control when the fight when to the ground. Although he lost, I believe his grappling skills can get him the decision.
the lapsley pick..bad choice going against the russian..and r round robins the better play..i do like 2-3-4-5 man parlays
I am usually big on the Russians and the Brazilians (in Brazil), but his last fight did not look impressive. He's still young and has time to improve, but I just think Lapsley getting the decision. But we'll see tonight. Best of luck
0
Quote Originally Posted by Coreyccr:
the lapsley pick..bad choice going against the russian..and r round robins the better play..i do like 2-3-4-5 man parlays
I am usually big on the Russians and the Brazilians (in Brazil), but his last fight did not look impressive. He's still young and has time to improve, but I just think Lapsley getting the decision. But we'll see tonight. Best of luck
Terrible night of betting for me! The underdogs came through, but not in my favor! I’m glad I followed my gut instinct and avoided Wineland cause of the unknown factors of Eduardo.Matt Brown weathered the storm and got the KO as expected. That was a great fight and showed us why Matt Brown is a top 10 welterweight. He can mentally break fighters, like Meins, Wonder boy and now Eric Silva. But either way it was a bad night, got to get back to the winning column soon. I'll be making changes to the round robin 4 way betting, I'll bring it down to 3 way bets (if I use it again).
Previously:
Units: -0.96
UFC 2014 YTD: -13.6 units
0
UFN 40: -13 units
Terrible night of betting for me! The underdogs came through, but not in my favor! I’m glad I followed my gut instinct and avoided Wineland cause of the unknown factors of Eduardo.Matt Brown weathered the storm and got the KO as expected. That was a great fight and showed us why Matt Brown is a top 10 welterweight. He can mentally break fighters, like Meins, Wonder boy and now Eric Silva. But either way it was a bad night, got to get back to the winning column soon. I'll be making changes to the round robin 4 way betting, I'll bring it down to 3 way bets (if I use it again).
Terrible night of betting for me! The underdogs came through, but not in my favor! I’m glad I followed my gut instinct and avoided Wineland cause of the unknown factors of Eduardo.Matt Brown weathered the storm and got the KO as expected. That was a great fight and showed us why Matt Brown is a top 10 welterweight. He can mentally break fighters, like Meins, Wonder boy and now Eric Silva. But either way it was a bad night, got to get back to the winning column soon. I'll be making changes to the round robin 4 way betting, I'll bring it down to 3 way bets (if I use it again).
Previously:
Units: -0.96
UFC 2014 YTD: -13.6 units
**Correction** UFC 2014 YTD: -13.96 units
0
Quote Originally Posted by Chino808:
UFN 40: -13 units
Terrible night of betting for me! The underdogs came through, but not in my favor! I’m glad I followed my gut instinct and avoided Wineland cause of the unknown factors of Eduardo.Matt Brown weathered the storm and got the KO as expected. That was a great fight and showed us why Matt Brown is a top 10 welterweight. He can mentally break fighters, like Meins, Wonder boy and now Eric Silva. But either way it was a bad night, got to get back to the winning column soon. I'll be making changes to the round robin 4 way betting, I'll bring it down to 3 way bets (if I use it again).
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