1 Tuesday w/analysis

Baltimore -113 over TAMPA BAY With Alex Cobb out with forearm tendonitis and with Alex Colome recently released from the hospital after suffering from pneumonia, Nathan Karns moves up the pecking order. Karns, a big-bodied and aggressive hurler, was obtained from the Nationals organization in February 2014. He steadily rose through the Nats minor league system and reached Washington for three starts in 2013. He wasn’t effective in any of those starts. Karns spent most of last year in the minors and when he did get the opportunity at the big league level, he went 1-1 with a 4.50 ERA in 12 IP for the Rays. Karns has some lofty minor-league strikeout totals but cannot maintain it at this level because he cannot throw strikes consistently with his secondary offerings. That has hitters sitting on his 90-95 MPH fastball. Karns is now a 27-year-old career minor-leaguer with just 24 innings at this level. His 6.00 ERA over those 24 innings to go along with 10 walks, tells the story of a career minor-leaguer with promise that can’t throw strikes and that is running out of time. We all know how that usually works out.

By contrast, Wei-Yin Chen throws nothing but strikes and he locates them well. The Orioles had their most successful season in years in 2014 with one of the major contributors being Chen, who went 16-6 for the division-winning team. Chen’s skills were nearly identical in both halves, and thus highlighted the effect hr/f can have on one’s ERA. A mediocre strikeout rate limits Chen’s upside but he's a stable cog who's getting better. In 18 innings this past spring, Chen walked one batter. We certainly trust Chen more than Karns and we trust Baltimore’s offense more as well. The Orioles plate discipline will force Karns to throw strikes when he’s inevitably behind in the count, which is a recipe for disaster.