Posted:
#1
Today:
Cubs ML -125 ($1250 to win $1000)
Analysis:
Cubs ML -125 ($1250 to win $1000)
Been a while since I've posted, but why not place a wager on the most anticipated game in baseball in my lifetime? The best part about not being a fan of either team, is that I can stay objective and just look at the stats to inform my opinion.
Now that the starting lineups have been posted, the Cubs bats against righties have avg / obp / slg / ops splits of .267 / .356 / .460 / .816 while the Tribe has .258 / .335 / .432 / .767. In a game that can come down to a single hit, I like the advantage in the power number (SLG) that this Cubs lineup offers.
The pitching matchup is as close as it gets. Hendricks has been amazingly consistent this year after a rocky 2015 campaign, giving up 3+ runs in only 6 out of 34 games he's started including the postseason (12 out of 37 for Kluber). While he isn't nearly as dominant away from Wrigley Field (and he hasn't pitched an away game this postseason), his away ERA of 2.95 is superior to Kluber's home ERA of 3.24. These numbers are close, but what really worries me about Kluber is that this will be his second consecutive start on short rest. I didn't look at his game log over his career, but I'm certain this is the first time he's going to pitch 3 games in a span of 9 days. He might have done this in little league, but this is the World Series and against one of the best lineups in baseball. Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me, but fool me three times? The Giant's didn't even make Bumgarner do this during last year's World Series, allowing Bumgarner to come out of the pen in game 7. While Kluber mixed up his arsenal in game 4, featuring many more off speed pitches than was seen in game 1, he won't have that element of surprise this time around. It's hard for me to back a pitcher in uncharted territory in the highest pressure situation baseball has to offer.
With no tomorrow for both teams, I expect this game to be managed like an all-star game, with starting pitchers available out of the bullpen. With any sign of emergency, I expect both managers to get to the pen early. Factoring in the Cubs starters, the Cubs should have equal if not better depth out of the bullpen tonight. Should there be trouble, Lester should be good for a couple innings as will Chapman. Chapman did throw 42 pitches on Sunday, but with Monday off and a routine 20 pitches last night, he is good to go.
Finally I'll mention that playing in an AL park allows Schwarber to hit, which shifts all the other bats down the order. This is a significant advantage that will tire a pitcher like Kluber out, who again is pitching on extremely short rest. In game 4, Kluber had the luxury of facing the Cubs pitcher in the 9 spot, but there won't be any of those opportunities in this game.
This should be a low scoring game, and with all things considered, I'll take the better bats, the less risky starting pitching proposition, and an equal if not better bullpen to win. Normally over the course of a betting season I might factor in the juice and try to find value picks. But in a one game situation, I'm here to pick the winner. I expect a parade in Chicago
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