Atlanta +115 over MIAMI Mat Latos missed a good chunk of the 2014 campaign due to elbow and knee injuries, but managed to own a 3.25 in 102 innings pitched. One wouldn’t know it from the shiny ERA, but there are some pretty serious concerns about the 27-year-old. Latos’s 4.02 xERA gives a much better measure of his effectiveness. It’s also worth noting that his skills took quite a nosedive as well. The decrease in strikeout rate is very troubling considering the significant drop in swing and miss % from 11% in ’13 to a run-of-the-mill 8% in ’14. Perhaps even more concerning is that his velocity fell 2 mph to 91 mph. Though Latos’s control improved to just 2.3 walks/9, his first pitch strike % suggests it could creep closer to 3. Additional free passes are never a good thing, especially when combined with a shrinking swing and miss rate. After boasting a groundball % of 43-46% over the previous four seasons, Latos allowed far more fly-balls in 2014. Luckily, he wasn’t hurt badly by the longball (7% hr/f), but that’s certainly something to watch going forward. Latos underwent offseason stem cell surgery on his right elbow hoping to regrow tissue and cartilage. He is now healthy, but his velocity remains down. There are enough concerns here that make him a very risky wager.
Alex Wood had an excellent follow-up to his 2013 debut, despite being shuffled in and out of the rotation and back-and-forth to the minors in the 1st half. Metrics are elite across-the-board, though his first pitch strike was a little soft in the 2nd half. Wood finished his sophomore campaign with the 15th best ERA of all qualified starting pitchers in the majors. After breaking into the majors in 2013 as a reliever, Wood has made a smooth transition to the starting rotation and his performance was backed by elite skills. His first pitch strike % and swing and miss % support slight gains in his strikeout rate and control. Wood’s dominant start/disaster start splits show how remarkably consistent he was last year and his xERA was a little higher than his ERA, but still strong at 3.20. One big contributor to his success has been the increase in his swing and miss stuff on his knuckle curve—a pitch he learned during spring training 2013 from Craig Kimbrel and Jonny Venters—to 19% in the second half of 2014 from 10% in 2013 and 12% in the first half of 2014. He was also nearly equally effective against both left-handed and right-handed batters en route to a .651 opponent OPS. Wood just keeps getting better and is a much better option as a dog than Latos is as the chalk.
Colorado +131 over MILWAUKEE The Brewers made Kyle Kendrick look like Greg Maddux yesterday. Normally we wouldn’t put too much weight on one game but perhaps we should pay a little more attention to fading the Brewers often right now. This is a team that suffered an epic collapse last year and the hangover might still be lingering. Milwaukee shot out to a 20-7 record that nobody saw coming and they held the division lead for 150 days. The Brewers stumbled to a 9-24 finish, becoming only the fifth team since divisional play began in 1969 to lead its division for at least 150 days and fail to make the playoffs. With a playoff berth on the line, the offense completely disappeared in September, averaging a meager 2.73 runs per game. This is still a free-swinging lineup that the opposition will continue to exploit. Much of the good work achieved during the 150 days in first place was wiped out by the epic meltdown and it might not be over. A 10-0 loss to open the season doesn’t exactly instill confidence either. Matt Garza continues to be viable mid-rotation starter but that may be short-lived, as there are plenty of chinks in the armor. First, he missed time again, as an oblique strain cost him a month. His velocity, strikeout rate and swing and miss rate have dropped three years in row. Garza’s xERA trend hints that his string of eight straight sub-4.00 ERA's may soon come to an end. Garza's K rate, which was once a major strength, continued its descent in 2014. His poor swing and miss rate trend doesn't bode well for a big rebound, either. His overall skills were a far cry from 2011's peak and the xERA trend confirms there's no growth taking place under the hood. On the surface, Garza's 2014 numbers were pretty much in line with previous seasons. However, three-year declines in strikeout rate, xERA and line-drive rate all say that he's skating on thin ice as he enters his age-31 season. Sprinkle in the team he pitches for and the park he pitches half of his games at and Garza becomes instant fade material when favored.
Jordan Lyles is a pitcher that won’t attract much attention right now. However, he continues to possess some hidden upside. Check out his skills against RH bats: 7.8 K’s/9, 2.6 BB/9, 59% groundball rate. He continues to struggle against lefties but has been working on that exclusively. Lyles is still very young, as he turns 24 years old in October. With a tweak against lefties, he could show some nice profits in 2015. Remember, a broken left hand cost him two months and his first-pass BPI scan is unimpressive. But if you squint, there are some rays. Lyles is a heavy groundballer, which keeps his team in the game and adds to his declining disaster start chart. He has youth, pedigree and now some added confidence on his side after a brilliant spring in which he allowed just eight hits in 21 innings and posted an ERA of 0.86. This is perhaps the best value on today’s board and one we surely are not going to miss.
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