2020 rules change and impact on betting totals discussion

The season is upon us in about 3 weeks. Here I would like to discuss the impact on certain rule changes and unwritten anomalies on game totals. 

The new rule such as designated hitter in all games including NL games would make unders less appealing than otherwise. But what about the Coronavirus pandemic? What impact could that have on the way players on the field play defense? Could the slightest subconscious paranoia prevent players from playing their A-game on certain tag plays? 

Normally I would look for several (or all) factors leading up to a over / under on a game. They are: 

- Starting pitchers of course. 

- Ballpark factors (Leans overs in Coors Field, never touch unders. AT&T Stadium at night for unders, etc). 

- Both teams respective average runs per game. 

- Closers


I don't know about percentages but if you have a game at Coors field with the wind blowing out and the 4th and 5th man in the rotation on the mound for each team respectively, I am betting the Over! They are not gonna put it at 17.5 or anything. 

Likewise, if you have Kershaw vs Bumgarner at AT&T stadium at 10PM EST or a DeGrom vs Scherzer, they are not putting the totals at 4.5. The play is UNDER whatever. 


Discuss away.

How will the lack of fans affect things? Some guys get pumped by it. 

Will the virus keep key team or staff members away? There are some old, at risk people around MLB. Some players will stay away but that should be factored in to the game total, but what if the pitching coach is a 60 year old who had a heart attack, does he stay in dugout, go to the mound, do they use a surrogate, maybe send messages Astros style :)

The DH and pitching rules changes tend to favor the over. But I think early on pitching rules and hitters get better as the season progresses. I can see a lot of early unders, and later as bats catch up, players get used to the way things are, more overs. I think managers are going to ride fewer pitchers for longer being as the season is so short and they just want to get to playoffs.

Does familiarity factor in? All the divisional games you would think would favor Under, but I currently live in MD and the Yankees absolutely lit up the O's last year. Way beyond what other teams did. 

I think the over under per game may be something I have to look at early, especially as there is no telling how these teams will gel early. If a team lime O's or Tigers got off to a hot/lucky start against a couple of divisional opponents, can momentum and confidence carry them through?

I don't know but with my season totals money refunded, I am going to sprinkle a lot on mid tier World Series futures, and a tiny bit on some real longshots.

Nats were 25:1 when I bet them, there are several teams at that price and better that I see with a shot in this new funky season.

Good luck all,

Manowarfan1