ARIZONA/San Diego over 9 +106 Arizona has won three in a row at home while
scoring 30 runs over that span. It’s unlikely that Eric Stults is going to slow
them down. Stults is the epitome of a lefty soft-tosser. His four-pitch mix
makes up for his 87-mph fastball but it's his pinpoint control that makes him (barely)
playable from time to time. Stults has issued just eight walks in 51 frames but
he’s only struck out 25 batters. He puts the ball in play and so he must rely
heavily on good fortune and great defense for any chance of success. That might
work at Petco but on the road Stults’ risk goes way up. For starters, Chase
Field is the second most hitter-friendly park in the NL (+10% runs scored). In
his career at Chase Field, he is 2-3 with a 5.57 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in 32.1 IP. It’s
not just Chase Field either, as Stults has always been hit hard on the road,
where in his career he is just 12-20 with a 4.62 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. In five
road starts this season, Stults is 0-4 with a 5.18 ERA, a .313 BAA and he’s
also allowed five jacks in 24 innings. The D-Backs figure to get their fair
share here.
Wade Miley brings a mixed bag to the
table. The PROS are a confirmed rise in his strikeouts and he’s displayed a
groundball mastery all of last season and much of this season too. The CONS are
that his exquisite 2012 control looks flukish; ditto the command. Miley has
walked 25 batters in 68.2 innings. He’s been taken yard 10 times overall but at
home he’s been taken yard seven times in five starts. At Chase Field in those
five home starts, Miley is 1-4 with a 7.14 ERA with a BAA of .286. Furthermore,
current Padres have hit .299 against Miley with a OPS of .790 in 134 combined
AB’s. Two very hittable pitchers hook up at this extreme hitter’s park and we
should see some crooked numbers against both.
Houston +121 over KANSAS CITY The Astros have won three straight while
outscoring the opposition 22-7 over that span. They took the opener of this
series last night by a score of 9-2 while knocking out Yordano Ventura in the
third inning. The Astros are displaying power, they have speed and they have an
enthusiasm about them that is unmatched. Now they get to face Jeremy Guthrie.
Guthrie is another one of those pitchers that must rely heavily on good fortune
because he doesn’t walk many and strikes out few. He has a lousy 29 K’s in 66
innings and that low K rate is supported by his awful 5% swinging strike rate.
One can safely predict that the speedy Astros will be aggressive on the
base-paths and wreak havoc on Guthrie’s inability to keep runners off.
Guthrie’s general lack of dominance can be seen in his 39%/16% dominant
start/disaster split over his average career. Guthrie is pure fade material
when he’s favored and pitching for the Royals does not give him any extra
appeal.
The Royals are dead last in so many key offensive
categories. Their 20 jacks are last in the majors, as is their HR total at
home, which is now at nine. K.C is also dead last in extra base hits, meaning
they are a singles hitting team that usually has to string together three hits
in an inning to score. The Royals have two win over their past seven games and
will now face a good looking rookie that they’ve never seen before. Collin
McHugh has come out of nowhere to post a nifty 3.32 ERA and 1.03 WHIP after 38
IP. They are marks that have been accompanied by full skill support that
include 9.7 K’s/9, good control and a rising groundball rate. His high
strikeout rate is backed by an elite 13% swinging strike % and he’s been just
as effective against both RHB and LHB. His key has been two dominant pitches:
slider (16% swinging strike rate) and curveball (18% swinging strike rate). In
addition, his four-seam fastball (10% swinging strike rate) and changeup (8% swinging
strike rate) are more than just show pitches. In three road starts, McHugh is
1-1 with a 1.80 ERA, a .194 BAA and a BB/K split of 4/23 in 20 innings. Win or
lose, this is a must play because there is simply too much value on the Astros
to skip it.
Baltimore +110 over MILWAUKEEMatt Garza continues to falter. Signed
to a big contract to be the Brewers #1 starter, Garza has been the Brewers
worst starter and that’s not likely to change. The warning signs just keep
coming. Garza’s swinging strike rate has decreased in each of his last six
starts. Over that same stretch his groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile of
31%/24%/39% screams to stay away. In his last start against Atlanta, Garza
walked three batters and struck out one. Over his last five starts his BB/K
split is an alarming 14/21. Garza is a pitcher in peril. He started last season
late as he recovered from 2012 elbow injury. His K rate didn't come all the way
back and it’s now getting worse. With his
2011 peak plainly in rear-view mirror, the question is whether that elbow
injury left him at this lower level permanently. Judging by his poor and declining
skills, we say he’s not close to regaining his old form. Garza is so overpriced
here.
Wei-Yin Chen is a mid-rotation stalwart
who gives the Orioles innings with an acceptable ERA and a handful of wins.
Chen is 5-2 with an ERA of 4.08 but his xERA of 3.87 is a better barometer of
his skills. In four of his past five starts, Chen has allowed two earned runs
or less. In 53 innings he’s only been taken yard four times. His ERA is
slightly inflated due to unlucky hit and strand rates but again, his xERA says
he’s very reliable. Chen has also done a better job of keeping the ball on the
ground and is coming off three starts with an elite groundball rate of 53%. It’s
also worth noting that the Brewers are hitting just .239 against lefties and
offer up no value whatsoever as the chalk in this one.
0
To remove first post, remove entire topic.
ARIZONA/San Diego over 9 +106 Arizona has won three in a row at home while
scoring 30 runs over that span. It’s unlikely that Eric Stults is going to slow
them down. Stults is the epitome of a lefty soft-tosser. His four-pitch mix
makes up for his 87-mph fastball but it's his pinpoint control that makes him (barely)
playable from time to time. Stults has issued just eight walks in 51 frames but
he’s only struck out 25 batters. He puts the ball in play and so he must rely
heavily on good fortune and great defense for any chance of success. That might
work at Petco but on the road Stults’ risk goes way up. For starters, Chase
Field is the second most hitter-friendly park in the NL (+10% runs scored). In
his career at Chase Field, he is 2-3 with a 5.57 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in 32.1 IP. It’s
not just Chase Field either, as Stults has always been hit hard on the road,
where in his career he is just 12-20 with a 4.62 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. In five
road starts this season, Stults is 0-4 with a 5.18 ERA, a .313 BAA and he’s
also allowed five jacks in 24 innings. The D-Backs figure to get their fair
share here.
Wade Miley brings a mixed bag to the
table. The PROS are a confirmed rise in his strikeouts and he’s displayed a
groundball mastery all of last season and much of this season too. The CONS are
that his exquisite 2012 control looks flukish; ditto the command. Miley has
walked 25 batters in 68.2 innings. He’s been taken yard 10 times overall but at
home he’s been taken yard seven times in five starts. At Chase Field in those
five home starts, Miley is 1-4 with a 7.14 ERA with a BAA of .286. Furthermore,
current Padres have hit .299 against Miley with a OPS of .790 in 134 combined
AB’s. Two very hittable pitchers hook up at this extreme hitter’s park and we
should see some crooked numbers against both.
Houston +121 over KANSAS CITY The Astros have won three straight while
outscoring the opposition 22-7 over that span. They took the opener of this
series last night by a score of 9-2 while knocking out Yordano Ventura in the
third inning. The Astros are displaying power, they have speed and they have an
enthusiasm about them that is unmatched. Now they get to face Jeremy Guthrie.
Guthrie is another one of those pitchers that must rely heavily on good fortune
because he doesn’t walk many and strikes out few. He has a lousy 29 K’s in 66
innings and that low K rate is supported by his awful 5% swinging strike rate.
One can safely predict that the speedy Astros will be aggressive on the
base-paths and wreak havoc on Guthrie’s inability to keep runners off.
Guthrie’s general lack of dominance can be seen in his 39%/16% dominant
start/disaster split over his average career. Guthrie is pure fade material
when he’s favored and pitching for the Royals does not give him any extra
appeal.
The Royals are dead last in so many key offensive
categories. Their 20 jacks are last in the majors, as is their HR total at
home, which is now at nine. K.C is also dead last in extra base hits, meaning
they are a singles hitting team that usually has to string together three hits
in an inning to score. The Royals have two win over their past seven games and
will now face a good looking rookie that they’ve never seen before. Collin
McHugh has come out of nowhere to post a nifty 3.32 ERA and 1.03 WHIP after 38
IP. They are marks that have been accompanied by full skill support that
include 9.7 K’s/9, good control and a rising groundball rate. His high
strikeout rate is backed by an elite 13% swinging strike % and he’s been just
as effective against both RHB and LHB. His key has been two dominant pitches:
slider (16% swinging strike rate) and curveball (18% swinging strike rate). In
addition, his four-seam fastball (10% swinging strike rate) and changeup (8% swinging
strike rate) are more than just show pitches. In three road starts, McHugh is
1-1 with a 1.80 ERA, a .194 BAA and a BB/K split of 4/23 in 20 innings. Win or
lose, this is a must play because there is simply too much value on the Astros
to skip it.
Baltimore +110 over MILWAUKEEMatt Garza continues to falter. Signed
to a big contract to be the Brewers #1 starter, Garza has been the Brewers
worst starter and that’s not likely to change. The warning signs just keep
coming. Garza’s swinging strike rate has decreased in each of his last six
starts. Over that same stretch his groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile of
31%/24%/39% screams to stay away. In his last start against Atlanta, Garza
walked three batters and struck out one. Over his last five starts his BB/K
split is an alarming 14/21. Garza is a pitcher in peril. He started last season
late as he recovered from 2012 elbow injury. His K rate didn't come all the way
back and it’s now getting worse. With his
2011 peak plainly in rear-view mirror, the question is whether that elbow
injury left him at this lower level permanently. Judging by his poor and declining
skills, we say he’s not close to regaining his old form. Garza is so overpriced
here.
Wei-Yin Chen is a mid-rotation stalwart
who gives the Orioles innings with an acceptable ERA and a handful of wins.
Chen is 5-2 with an ERA of 4.08 but his xERA of 3.87 is a better barometer of
his skills. In four of his past five starts, Chen has allowed two earned runs
or less. In 53 innings he’s only been taken yard four times. His ERA is
slightly inflated due to unlucky hit and strand rates but again, his xERA says
he’s very reliable. Chen has also done a better job of keeping the ball on the
ground and is coming off three starts with an elite groundball rate of 53%. It’s
also worth noting that the Brewers are hitting just .239 against lefties and
offer up no value whatsoever as the chalk in this one.
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