ARIZONA/San Diego over 9 +106 Arizona has won three in a row at home while scoring 30 runs over that span. It’s unlikely that Eric Stults is going to slow them down. Stults is the epitome of a lefty soft-tosser. His four-pitch mix makes up for his 87-mph fastball but it's his pinpoint control that makes him (barely) playable from time to time. Stults has issued just eight walks in 51 frames but he’s only struck out 25 batters. He puts the ball in play and so he must rely heavily on good fortune and great defense for any chance of success. That might work at Petco but on the road Stults’ risk goes way up. For starters, Chase Field is the second most hitter-friendly park in the NL (+10% runs scored). In his career at Chase Field, he is 2-3 with a 5.57 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in 32.1 IP. It’s not just Chase Field either, as Stults has always been hit hard on the road, where in his career he is just 12-20 with a 4.62 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. In five road starts this season, Stults is 0-4 with a 5.18 ERA, a .313 BAA and he’s also allowed five jacks in 24 innings. The D-Backs figure to get their fair share here.
Wade Miley brings a mixed bag to the table. The PROS are a confirmed rise in his strikeouts and he’s displayed a groundball mastery all of last season and much of this season too. The CONS are that his exquisite 2012 control looks flukish; ditto the command. Miley has walked 25 batters in 68.2 innings. He’s been taken yard 10 times overall but at home he’s been taken yard seven times in five starts. At Chase Field in those five home starts, Miley is 1-4 with a 7.14 ERA with a BAA of .286. Furthermore, current Padres have hit .299 against Miley with a OPS of .790 in 134 combined AB’s. Two very hittable pitchers hook up at this extreme hitter’s park and we should see some crooked numbers against both.
Houston +121 over KANSAS CITY The Astros have won three straight while outscoring the opposition 22-7 over that span. They took the opener of this series last night by a score of 9-2 while knocking out Yordano Ventura in the third inning. The Astros are displaying power, they have speed and they have an enthusiasm about them that is unmatched. Now they get to face Jeremy Guthrie. Guthrie is another one of those pitchers that must rely heavily on good fortune because he doesn’t walk many and strikes out few. He has a lousy 29 K’s in 66 innings and that low K rate is supported by his awful 5% swinging strike rate. One can safely predict that the speedy Astros will be aggressive on the base-paths and wreak havoc on Guthrie’s inability to keep runners off. Guthrie’s general lack of dominance can be seen in his 39%/16% dominant start/disaster split over his average career. Guthrie is pure fade material when he’s favored and pitching for the Royals does not give him any extra appeal.
The Royals are dead last in so many key offensive categories. Their 20 jacks are last in the majors, as is their HR total at home, which is now at nine. K.C is also dead last in extra base hits, meaning they are a singles hitting team that usually has to string together three hits in an inning to score. The Royals have two win over their past seven games and will now face a good looking rookie that they’ve never seen before. Collin McHugh has come out of nowhere to post a nifty 3.32 ERA and 1.03 WHIP after 38 IP. They are marks that have been accompanied by full skill support that include 9.7 K’s/9, good control and a rising groundball rate. His high strikeout rate is backed by an elite 13% swinging strike % and he’s been just as effective against both RHB and LHB. His key has been two dominant pitches: slider (16% swinging strike rate) and curveball (18% swinging strike rate). In addition, his four-seam fastball (10% swinging strike rate) and changeup (8% swinging strike rate) are more than just show pitches. In three road starts, McHugh is 1-1 with a 1.80 ERA, a .194 BAA and a BB/K split of 4/23 in 20 innings. Win or lose, this is a must play because there is simply too much value on the Astros to skip it.
Baltimore +110 over MILWAUKEE Matt Garza continues to falter. Signed to a big contract to be the Brewers #1 starter, Garza has been the Brewers worst starter and that’s not likely to change. The warning signs just keep coming. Garza’s swinging strike rate has decreased in each of his last six starts. Over that same stretch his groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile of 31%/24%/39% screams to stay away. In his last start against Atlanta, Garza walked three batters and struck out one. Over his last five starts his BB/K split is an alarming 14/21. Garza is a pitcher in peril. He started last season late as he recovered from 2012 elbow injury. His K rate didn't come all the way back and it’s now getting worse. With his 2011 peak plainly in rear-view mirror, the question is whether that elbow injury left him at this lower level permanently. Judging by his poor and declining skills, we say he’s not close to regaining his old form. Garza is so overpriced here.
Wei-Yin Chen is a mid-rotation stalwart who gives the Orioles innings with an acceptable ERA and a handful of wins. Chen is 5-2 with an ERA of 4.08 but his xERA of 3.87 is a better barometer of his skills. In four of his past five starts, Chen has allowed two earned runs or less. In 53 innings he’s only been taken yard four times. His ERA is slightly inflated due to unlucky hit and strand rates but again, his xERA says he’s very reliable. Chen has also done a better job of keeping the ball on the ground and is coming off three starts with an elite groundball rate of 53%. It’s also worth noting that the Brewers are hitting just .239 against lefties and offer up no value whatsoever as the chalk in this one.
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