Chicago +165 over ATLANTA Atlanta has scored one run or less in six of its last 10 games. Over that span they are batting .204 and are a major league worst in many categories including runs scored (17), hits (66) and slugging % (.313). Atlanta has just one win over its last nine games and remains a huge risk as the chalk in this price range. Julio Teheran is doing a great job with a 1.80 ERA and 0.88 WHIP after seven starts. Although Teheran is solid, regression is forthcoming because he’s not as dominant as his ERA suggests. Teheran has 33 K’s in 50 innings. Good but not great. His groundball/fly-ball split is 40%/42%, which is decent but certainly not great. Teheran has an unsustainable 87% strand rate and a very low and unsustainable 21% hit rate. Last season, Teheran had a 4.91 ERA in two starts against the Cubs and while he’s very capable of dominating them this time around, it may take only two or three runs to get us to the cahier’s window.
If you evaluate Jason Hammel in terms of ERA, 2012 now looks like a blind squirrel finding a nut. But if you look at skills, 2012 gets validation from 2009-10. So what happened in 2013? Well, Hammel may have just never been healthy. He had pre-season knee surgery, an illness in June and a DL stint for arm problems in second half. If we give him a pass for last year his profile over his career begins to look a whole lot better. Hammel has a Julio Teheran like BB/K split of 9/32 in 41 innings. He also has a strong swinging strike rate of 11% and a groundball/fly-ball split of 45%/39%. Hammel comes in with a skills supported 2.43 ERA and in his last start at Turner Field he threw a one-hit shutout. Overall the Braves have struggled against RHP with a .227 BA and .647 OPS and it would come as no surprise if they scored little here and lost again. Definite overlay.
Arizona -½ +115 over CHICAGO (1st 5 innings) Brandon McCarthy had an ugly 5.54 ERA and 1.42 WHIP in April, causing him to be one of the league’s most undervalued pitchers right now. Truth be told, McCarthy's skills were fantastic in April with 8.2 K’s/9, outstanding control and an elite 55% groundball rate. A 34% hit rate, 65% strand rate and crazy 27% hr/f caused his surface stats to implode. McCarthy has even added two MPH to his fastball from 2013 to this point in 2014. McCarthy has 40 K’s in 44 innings and his xERA of 3.16 is 1½-runs lower than his actual ERA of 4.67. He’ll now face a White Sox team that has struck out more times (97) than any team in the league over the past 10 games. McCarthy is an excellent buy-low target.
Arizona has won 5 of 7 and just completed road series wins over both S.D. and Milwaukee while doing some damage against some very good pitchers. The Diamondbacks now get their easiest assignment in some time when facing Andre Rienzo. Rienzo has appeared in 4 games this season with 3 of those being starts. In 18 frames, he’s walked 10 and struck out 10. His swinging strike rate in his starts has been 4%. In his last start he walked four and whiffed two in 4.2 innings at Cleveland. Rienzo also has a fly-ball bias profile to go along with a WHIP of 1.56. However, the most fortunate part of his profile is that he has yet to lose with two victories and a no-decision. A starting pitcher with skills this bad cannot keep winning games. This is one of the biggest starting pitching mismatches on the board but it is not priced as such, prompting us to step in and play the value.
Washington +105 over OAKLAND The Athletics have lost six of their last seven at home and overall they have dropped five of their last seven. Furthermore, the A’s are coming off a long day after splitting a DH against the Mariners. In Tommy Milone’s five starts this season the A’s are 0-5. Milone himself is 0-3 and that doesn’t bode well against a Nationals team that is hitting .313 against lefties this year, the second best mark in the majors. As none of his pitches top 90 mph, Milone relies on location and pitch mix. ERA and xERA both indicate a decline in skills. In 28 frames, Milone has walked 12 and struck out 13. He has an ERA of 5.86 and at home his ERA is 4.50. Lots can go wrong with all those fly-balls and line-drives and without much upside we can continue to expect replacement-level performances out of this replacement level starter.
Doug Fister makes his first start of the year and will be on a strict pitch count of 100. That’s fine by us, as the Nats pen is third best in the majors and Washington has outscored the opposition 82-45 after the sixth inning this season. Fister's ERA has risen each of the last two seasons but only slightly so there is no reason for concern. Fister's stable skills point to continued success. Fister continues to possess excellent control and his heavy groundball rate will keep the ball in the yard as seen in his consistent hr/9 history. Fister's xERA trend from 2011-13 is extremely stable making he and the Nats a much better option taking back a tag than Milone and the A’s are spotting one, especially after a double-header yesterday.
Cleveland +101 over TAMPA BAY (1st 5 innings) The Indians offense has risen from the dead with 17 runs scored over their past three games. The Tribe also hung a 12 on the South Side one week ago. Overall, Cleveland has won five of seven and they now become playable against Jake Odorizzi and the struggling Rays. Odorizzi went 0-1 with a 3.94 ERA in 30 innings for Tampa last year. At times he looks ready for the Show but beware, as he has a history of dropping skills on first exposure at each level before a recovery and we’re seeing lots more evidence of that early this season. Odorizzi has a four-pitch arsenal with a 91-mph fastball but he has just one pure quality start in six tries this season. Too many balls have led to too many counts in the hitters favor and the result is a 1.81 WHIP and a 6.83 ERA. Odorizzi’s groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile of 37%/23%/40% doesn’t exactly scream invest either. As soon as Jeremy Hellickson or Alex Cobb returns from injury, chances are that Jake Odorizzi will be the odd man out.
Cory Kluber’s skills are all on positive trends. Kluber’s strikeout rate, swinging strike rate, command and groundball rate are all up and his walk totals are down. Kluber’s xERA says more growth ahead. He did skirt some line-drive danger last season and his past includes ample base runners, but second half dominant start/disaster start split plus April this year says he’s grooving and getting better. Kluber has 48 K’s in 45 frames. He’s whiffed 13 batters and walked two over his last 13 innings and over that span his swinging strike rate of 19% was the highest in the majors over two consecutive starts. Kluber offers up as much value in this spot against Odorizzi as any pitcher we’ve seen this season.
.........Thanxs Sherwood.........
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