Hello Covers community. Obviously this is my first post, as the "Posts" on the left side indicated such. I want to first say thanks to the Covers members who contributed to this forum, whether it's helpful or simply provided sheer entainment for the rest of us. I've decided to post after many years reading the sports forum on Covers just to share my views. I'm not asking you to agree with me or blindly tail, but simply for me to provide inputs with my own analysis and opinion of the games. Comments and constructive criticisms are welcome. Please keep bashing to a minimal.
My bets are from 0.5U to 3U. I rarely parlay, mostly just straight wagers. Money management is obviously the key in gambling. I think most of you know that already. Here we go.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Hello Covers community. Obviously this is my first post, as the "Posts" on the left side indicated such. I want to first say thanks to the Covers members who contributed to this forum, whether it's helpful or simply provided sheer entainment for the rest of us. I've decided to post after many years reading the sports forum on Covers just to share my views. I'm not asking you to agree with me or blindly tail, but simply for me to provide inputs with my own analysis and opinion of the games. Comments and constructive criticisms are welcome. Please keep bashing to a minimal.
My bets are from 0.5U to 3U. I rarely parlay, mostly just straight wagers. Money management is obviously the key in gambling. I think most of you know that already. Here we go.
Cin (Arroyo) at Cubs (Dempster), line +118/-128, over/under ?:
Reds are playing great ball right now. Pitching has been quite strong and they're scoring runs. Cubbies on the other hand are simply not scoring. With the exception of 6/27 game again WSox, where they scored 8 runs, they have scored less than 3 runs in the previous 10 games. Got shutout 3 times along the way. Love the Reds in this spot as the small road dog with Arroyo. In my opinion the line opened in the right range, as Dempster has pitched well this season, so it's not a fishy line per se. Over/under line not out yet, but my guess it's around 8.5-9. Lean on the under if it's around that range, as Cubbies simply can't put runs across the plate right now.
Pick Cin +118 1.5U
Lean under 8
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Cin (Arroyo) at Cubs (Dempster), line +118/-128, over/under ?:
Reds are playing great ball right now. Pitching has been quite strong and they're scoring runs. Cubbies on the other hand are simply not scoring. With the exception of 6/27 game again WSox, where they scored 8 runs, they have scored less than 3 runs in the previous 10 games. Got shutout 3 times along the way. Love the Reds in this spot as the small road dog with Arroyo. In my opinion the line opened in the right range, as Dempster has pitched well this season, so it's not a fishy line per se. Over/under line not out yet, but my guess it's around 8.5-9. Lean on the under if it's around that range, as Cubbies simply can't put runs across the plate right now.
Cecil beat Burnett in their previous matchup on 6/4, where he pitched 8 strong innings en route to beat Burnett 6-1. Cecil had another strong outing after that, beating TB 3-2 at TB. Since then he has not been sharp, losing 3 straight and giving up 5+ runs in each while lasting no more than 6 innings. Burnett took a nose dive after the 6/4 game, going 0-5 with 11.35 ERA. I'm not touching the side, as I'm certainly not laying -157 on Yanks with Burnett struggling and the team not scoring many runs. On the flip side, even though Tor is getting a great price, Cecil hasn't been sharp of late and Tor's offense gone AWOL. Tor scored a total of 6 runs in 4 games against Cleveland pitching, while getting swept. CLEVELAND!!!!! I'm certain many dog betters will take Cecil simply on principle alone, especially the Yanks' line is always inflated because they are who they are. However, with Tor's bats ice cold, I don't know if they could score against my local JV girl's softball team right now. If I must pick one, then only a slight lean on NYY.
As far as the total goes, this one smells funny. I think the majority is on the over, as you simply have to look at the recent pitching stats to make that decision. However, the total line has dropped from 10 to 9.5. The first meeting betwen these two pitchers ended up with 6-1, under the posted total of 9. Neither teams are hitting much of late. So do you weigh more on pitching or offense? My pick is the under 9.5 for 0.5U, as I think both offenses will continue to struggle and consequently both pitchers will improve upon their recent outings.
Pick under 9.5 -110
Lean NYY -157
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Tor (Cecil) at NYY (Burnett), line +147/-157, 9.5
Cecil beat Burnett in their previous matchup on 6/4, where he pitched 8 strong innings en route to beat Burnett 6-1. Cecil had another strong outing after that, beating TB 3-2 at TB. Since then he has not been sharp, losing 3 straight and giving up 5+ runs in each while lasting no more than 6 innings. Burnett took a nose dive after the 6/4 game, going 0-5 with 11.35 ERA. I'm not touching the side, as I'm certainly not laying -157 on Yanks with Burnett struggling and the team not scoring many runs. On the flip side, even though Tor is getting a great price, Cecil hasn't been sharp of late and Tor's offense gone AWOL. Tor scored a total of 6 runs in 4 games against Cleveland pitching, while getting swept. CLEVELAND!!!!! I'm certain many dog betters will take Cecil simply on principle alone, especially the Yanks' line is always inflated because they are who they are. However, with Tor's bats ice cold, I don't know if they could score against my local JV girl's softball team right now. If I must pick one, then only a slight lean on NYY.
As far as the total goes, this one smells funny. I think the majority is on the over, as you simply have to look at the recent pitching stats to make that decision. However, the total line has dropped from 10 to 9.5. The first meeting betwen these two pitchers ended up with 6-1, under the posted total of 9. Neither teams are hitting much of late. So do you weigh more on pitching or offense? My pick is the under 9.5 for 0.5U, as I think both offenses will continue to struggle and consequently both pitchers will improve upon their recent outings.
Florida's ace Josh Johnson goes against Atlanta's reliever turned starter Kris Medlen in tonight's marquee matchup. Neither has given up more than 4 earned runs in their starts this season so far. In fact, both only gave up 4 earned runs once in their perspective starts. Johnson typically pitches deep into games, with last 6 games at least 7 innings in each. Florida's bullpen is suspect, with 25th ERA in the Major. Medlen has't pitched as deep into the game compared to Johnson, but Atlanta's bullpen has the 8th best ERA in the Major. I loved the under when I saw it last night and likes it even more now. Under 7 will be a 2U play for me. I'm not touching the side, as the low line is screaming Johnson. However, Atlanta sports the best home record in the Major at 28-9 and Medlen is fully capable of shutting the opposing team down. I'm a little surprised by the majority of Covers consensus on Atlanta though. Very slight lean on Atl as small home dog.
Pick under 7 -105
Lean Atl +110
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Flo (Johnson) at Atl (Medlen), line -120/+110, 7
Florida's ace Josh Johnson goes against Atlanta's reliever turned starter Kris Medlen in tonight's marquee matchup. Neither has given up more than 4 earned runs in their starts this season so far. In fact, both only gave up 4 earned runs once in their perspective starts. Johnson typically pitches deep into games, with last 6 games at least 7 innings in each. Florida's bullpen is suspect, with 25th ERA in the Major. Medlen has't pitched as deep into the game compared to Johnson, but Atlanta's bullpen has the 8th best ERA in the Major. I loved the under when I saw it last night and likes it even more now. Under 7 will be a 2U play for me. I'm not touching the side, as the low line is screaming Johnson. However, Atlanta sports the best home record in the Major at 28-9 and Medlen is fully capable of shutting the opposing team down. I'm a little surprised by the majority of Covers consensus on Atlanta though. Very slight lean on Atl as small home dog.
Similar situation to the Flo/Atl game, albeit Chacin statistically isn't as strong as Medlen so far this year. We all have to agree that Lincecum has not been his dominating self this year. To compound the problem, SF's bats have been quiet lately, averaging a paltry 2.8 runs/game last 10 games. Are the oddsmaker setting a big trap for the squares to take Lincecum at such tempting price? My mind tells me to take Col, the sensible home dog with the fishy line, but my heart is telling me Lincecum is going to halt SF's current losing streak. My wallet tells me there are better spots. There are 15 MLB games tonight, thus 30 basic side & o/u bets for starter, not counting all other team total/props, etc. No need to force action just for the sake of gambling. I will, however, take the under 8 -110 for 0.5U bet.
Pick under 8 -110 0.5U
Lean SF -121
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SF (Lincecum) at Col (Chacin), line -121/+111, 8
Similar situation to the Flo/Atl game, albeit Chacin statistically isn't as strong as Medlen so far this year. We all have to agree that Lincecum has not been his dominating self this year. To compound the problem, SF's bats have been quiet lately, averaging a paltry 2.8 runs/game last 10 games. Are the oddsmaker setting a big trap for the squares to take Lincecum at such tempting price? My mind tells me to take Col, the sensible home dog with the fishy line, but my heart is telling me Lincecum is going to halt SF's current losing streak. My wallet tells me there are better spots. There are 15 MLB games tonight, thus 30 basic side & o/u bets for starter, not counting all other team total/props, etc. No need to force action just for the sake of gambling. I will, however, take the under 8 -110 for 0.5U bet.
Sea (Fister) at Det (Scherzer), line +136/-146, 8.5
Made a little money with Lee and King Felix against the Yankees and will come back again to Sea with Fister. Just can't pass up this spot where in my opinion the better pitcher is getting money. This will be a 1U bet. Normally this would have been a 2U bet, but I'm a bit concerned with Seattle after a hard fought series with Yankees. Maybe a letdown spot. We'll see. I will also bet the under for 0.5U.
Pick Sea +136 1U and under 8.5 -120 0.5U
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Sea (Fister) at Det (Scherzer), line +136/-146, 8.5
Made a little money with Lee and King Felix against the Yankees and will come back again to Sea with Fister. Just can't pass up this spot where in my opinion the better pitcher is getting money. This will be a 1U bet. Normally this would have been a 2U bet, but I'm a bit concerned with Seattle after a hard fought series with Yankees. Maybe a letdown spot. We'll see. I will also bet the under for 0.5U.
Whew, that Tor/NYY game was a bit dramatic. Thank god no additonal runs were scored after Seattle put up 5 runs on the top of 11. That would have been the ultimate moose for the under.
Update
Tor/NYY under 9.5 -110 0.5U
Cin +118 1.5U
Fl/Atl under 7 -105 2U
SF/Col under 8 -110 0.5U
Sea +136 1U
Sea/Det under 8.5 -120 0.5U
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Whew, that Tor/NYY game was a bit dramatic. Thank god no additonal runs were scored after Seattle put up 5 runs on the top of 11. That would have been the ultimate moose for the under.
Wow, I had to do a double take when I saw the line. Garcia pitched against Lewis at Chicago back on 6/3, which Garcia won the game 4-3 as a small home dog (+105). Now they switch venues and all of sudden the TX is a huge fav? Both teams have been hot. Both teams cooled off a bit in the recent series, going 1-2 respectively against KC and LAA on the road. This one is tough to decipher. The dog lover in me almost wanted to take CHW at this price as an auto-bet. Then I got to thinking, why would the linesmakers open at such ridiculous figure? Both pitchers have been good this season and both have had success of late. Garcia has gone 4-0 with 3.74 ERA last 5 and Lewis counters with 3-2 record with a better ERA at 3.06 last 5. I don't see any significant recent injuries to justify such a line jump. I had Rangers pegged as -135 to -150 fav at best. But -185 and climbing at some places? It seems the books are begging for CHW money. I'm very close at pulling the trigger on Tex RL but will wait until game time to make final decision. Even though I think Tex will win by a few runs in this spot, I'm just not a big fan of playing RL's. However, there is no way I'll lay -185 for any game. It's not in my DNA. For over/under, I'm leaning under 9.5 for now and will wait until game time as well to make final decision.
Picks Tex RL +105 and under 9.5 (will wait)
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CHW (Garcia) at Tex (Lewis), line +175/-185, 9.5
Wow, I had to do a double take when I saw the line. Garcia pitched against Lewis at Chicago back on 6/3, which Garcia won the game 4-3 as a small home dog (+105). Now they switch venues and all of sudden the TX is a huge fav? Both teams have been hot. Both teams cooled off a bit in the recent series, going 1-2 respectively against KC and LAA on the road. This one is tough to decipher. The dog lover in me almost wanted to take CHW at this price as an auto-bet. Then I got to thinking, why would the linesmakers open at such ridiculous figure? Both pitchers have been good this season and both have had success of late. Garcia has gone 4-0 with 3.74 ERA last 5 and Lewis counters with 3-2 record with a better ERA at 3.06 last 5. I don't see any significant recent injuries to justify such a line jump. I had Rangers pegged as -135 to -150 fav at best. But -185 and climbing at some places? It seems the books are begging for CHW money. I'm very close at pulling the trigger on Tex RL but will wait until game time to make final decision. Even though I think Tex will win by a few runs in this spot, I'm just not a big fan of playing RL's. However, there is no way I'll lay -185 for any game. It's not in my DNA. For over/under, I'm leaning under 9.5 for now and will wait until game time as well to make final decision.
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