7/3/10 Game Analysis, Leans and Picks

Friday 7/2/10 results:

Tor/NYY under 9.5 -110 0.5U

Cin +118 1.5U

Fl/Atl under 7 -105 2U pushed (damn it Fl bullpen, I singled you out and of course you blew it for me)

SF/Col under 8 -110 0.5U

Sea +136 1U (perhaps I should listen to myself more, mentioned it may be a letdown spot for Sea yet I bet it anyway)

Sea/Det under 8.5 -120 0.5U

7-2-10 record (3-2-1) +1.22U

Overall record (3-2-1) +1.22U

Here we go

Cin (Cueto) at Cubs (Wells), line -120/+110, 9

This line stinks to high heaven.  You have a hot team in Reds and a cold/bad team in Cubs.  Offensively Reds have been putting up runs while Cubs' bats are frigid.  You have Cueto with 8-2 3.74 ERA up against Wells with 3-6 4.96 ERA and winless in his last 11 starts (Cubs 3-8 in those).  And to top it off, Cubs lost 12-0 with 2 hits only yesterday.  Hmmm, something isn't right here.  The oddsmaker open Reds as -115 fav only and the line has creep up a bit to -120.  You also have to keep in mind that it was only a 1-0 game going into the 7th yesterday, when Cubs gave up 3 hits/5 walks/1 error/1 passed ball and Reds put up 9 runs to essentially end the game right there.  So if that inning hadn't started with walks/error/passed ball first, it was anybody's game.  I usually like to take team off an embarrassing loss, as in my opinion the players will play with a chip on their shoulders the next game to redeem themselves.  However, with that said, I'm not gonna go nuts on this one either.  It'll be 0.5U play for me on the Cubbies.  I'm not touching the total but I'm leaning over on this one.

Pick Cubs +110 0.5U

Lean over 9 +100

Tor (Romero) at NYY (Pettitte), line +160/-170, 8.5

I'm a bit surprised by Pettitte's success this year.  He has the best ERA amongst Yankees starters and his 9 total wins is only one behind CC and Hughes.  Romero has been a model of consistency for Tor this year.  If Tor gave him a bit more offensive support, he could easily have 10 wins by now.  His only bad outing out of 16 starts is at LAA, where he gave up 7 runs in 5.1 innings.  As I mentioned yesterday in my thread, it's hard to pick side between these 2 clubs.  Offensively, both have been cold, although Tor broke out with a 5 run 10th inning yesterday.  The 6 total runs scored by Tor is the highest in 11 games.  In that span, they got shutout twice and scored one run 3 times.  Pitching wise, I think they're both equally good, albeit Pettitte has a better record.  Again, it's no secret that NYY line is always inflated because they're the Yankees, but I'm not certain there is any value in taking Tor today after Tor won the game yesterday.  I don't want to get into a big debate over the definition of "value", but it's so over-used and mis-used in this forum.  In my opinion, it's not necessary "value" just because you get a plus sign in front of the number.  If you pick a loser, there is no value there regardless the dog is +120 or +300.  I understand the argument that you should use long term projection to determine whether the bet is profitable, but I just feel each game is unique in itself and rarely will you have 2 or 3 games within a season where all conditions are equal.  It's not just about the pitching matchup.  Ok, enough said about that subject.  I'm sure I'll hear comments on that topic later.  I still like the under for this game and will bet 1U on it.  Not picking side, but lean NYY -170 (but I hardly will actually bet anything above -130, just not in my DNA).  I think since Tor pulled that one out of the hat yesterday, today is a good spot for NYY.

Pick under 8.5 -115 1U

Lean NYY -170

Flo (Sanchez) at Atl (Hanson), line+153/-163, 8

Hanson has struggled in his last 2 outings, lasting only 3.2 innings in each while giving up 9 and 5 ER.  Sanchez has been a model of consistency, going 7-4 with 3.18 ERA.  Atl won the game in extra innings yesterday, scoring 2 runs in the bottom of 10th after Flo took the lead on the top of 10th.  Screw me out of a 2U under play (pushed).  Will Hanson's struggle continue?  Normally I would have taken the dog in this spot, but I'm wary of Atl's best home record in the Major.  Prior to the 2 game slide, Hanson had gone 4-0 in 5 games, giving up a total of 9 runs only.  I'm going to pass on the side, but slight lean on Atl.  I like the over here, as Hanson has gone 10-1 o/u after a 0-4-1 o/u start.  Either Atl pounds the balls or his opponent pounds him during this stretch.  Both Hanson and Sanchez's starts against the other team (not against each other) this season went over the total. 

Lean Atl -163 

Pick over 8 -120 1U

NYM (Dickey) at Wash (Strasburg), line +160/-170, 7

Wow, talk about contrast of pitching style in this matchup.  We have the knuckleballer against the flame-thrower.  Dickey has a breakout season so far, with 6-1 record and a sub 3 ERA (2.98).  Boy Wonder got shutout twice in a row to bring his record to 2-2 along with an impressive 2.27 ERA.  After Strasburg won his initial 2 outings against cupcakes Pit and Cle, he has ran up against the wall vs White Sox, KC and Atl.  He only gave up a combined 5 runs in those games, but his offense scored a total of one run in support of him for those games.  In my opinion, opposing pitchers are motivated to pitch against the supposed 2nd coming of Cy Young, so I'm looking to fade Strasburg down the line.  You should get pretty good price each time for a while longer.  I have taken the under on all 5 Strasburg game so far this season, going 4-1.  I will again take the under 7 on this one.  I'm just a bit wary of Dickey, who finally lost his first game of the season, giving up 5 runs in his shortage outing (5 innings) this season.  I'm also always nervous betting on o/u when a knuckleballer is involved.  Nonetheless, 0.5U wager on under 7.  As far as side is concern, my lean is NYM +160.  I think Mets will keep this one close.  May even win it.  Again, just a lean assuming I have to make a choice.  

Pick under 7 -125 0.5U

Lean NYM +160

TB (Davis) at Minn (Liriano), line +137/-147, 8.5

Davis started the season 3-1, but have gone 2-8 since.  However, out of his 9 losses, 4 are by 1 run and another by 2 runs.  All 5 of these were low scoring games (so he didn't give up many runs).  Liriano had gone similar route, starting out 4-0 with 2 shutouts, then he's gone 2-6 since.  I don't have a feel for this game, as both team have been mediocre and both pitchers have struggle of late.  I'm predominately a dog/under bettor, so my lean would be TB here, as they are getting money in this spot.  I think it's a toss-up.  I also lean over 8.5.  Not betting this game.

Lean TB +137 and over 8.5+105

Mil (Parra) at StL (Carpenter), line +185/-200, 8

This is going to be the definition of a square play, StL RL +105.  I'm not sure I will pull the trigger however, as I mentioned yesterday that I'm not a big fan of taking RL on heavy favs.  On paper, StL absolutely should win this game with ease.  Carpenter is sporting a 9-1 record with 2.70 ERA while reliever/starter Parra shows a 2-5 record with 4.12 ERA.  Parra's record as starter is 1-2 with 4.37 ERA in 7 starts.  Also note that he has not lasted past 6 innings in any of his starts.  So you have to figure StL will get to Mil's bullpen, with 2nd highest ERA in the Major thus far.  I'm trying to find reasons to talk myself out of this bet, so here it is.  Carpenter gave up 5 ER in 7 innings in the only outing against Mil this year.  He got ND as Mil eventually won.  His career ERA against Mil is 4.13, so it's not that impressive considering this is NL, where ERA tends to be lower than AL.  Furthermore, Parra has limited his opponents to 4 runs or less as a starter (4 runs only once), but since his outings were short, the ERA inflated as the result.  StL hasn't been teeing off the ball lately.  In fact, they're only 5-5 last 10, with only 3 of those wins by 2+ runs. I can totally see maybe a 2-1 or 2-2 game in the 7th when Mil's bullpen takes over and eventually lose the game by one run.  I think I just talked myself out of this game.  Hope I didn't over-analyze.  I do like the under 8, but a bit wary about Mil's bullpen.  But if my assessment is correct, then this maybe a 4-2 or 3-2 type of game.  I'll bite on the under, 0.5U.

Lean StL RL +105

Pick under 8 -105 0.5U

7/3/10 Update

Pick Cubs +110 0.5U

Pick Tor/NYY under 8.5 -115 1U

Pick Flo/Atl over 8 -120 1U

Pick NYM/Wash under 7 -125 0.5U

Pick Mil/StL under 8 -105 0.5U

7/3/10 Update

Pick Cubs +110 0.5U

Pick Tor/NYY under 8.5 -115 1U (Guess I was way off, however, Yankees had only 2 hits outside of the 7 hits/11 runs 3rd inning.  Granted that big inning changed the dynamics of the game.  Moving on.)

Pick Flo/Atl over 8 -120 1U

Pick NYM/Wash under 7 -125 0.5U

Pick Mil/StL under 8 -105 0.5U

SF (Zito) at Col (Jimenez), line +188/-205, 7.5

SF has lost 7 straight to fall 6.5 games behind SD.  They simply aren't scoring runs during this stretch, averaging 2.16 runs/game, with no more than 3 runs scored in any of them.  Now they have to face arguably the best pitcher this season in Jimenez on the road.  Jimenez proved that he is human in the past couple starts giving up 6 in 5.2 innings vs Bos and 4 runs in 6 innings at SD.  However, he was facing a red hot Red Sox team in the rain, and his offense did bail him out and ultimately won the game.  He's gone 14-1, with one ND (Bos) and one 2-0 loss to LAD.  Other than one game at Ari, where he won by only one run (3-2), all other wins have come by 2+ runs.  I have mentioned that I'm not a big fan of betting RL on heavy fav, but this is just too good of a spot to pass up.  I'm going to keep riding this money train.  I lean heavy on the under, but we are playing at Coors Field (although not as hitter friendly now days as before) and both Zito and Jimenez have given up some runs lately, I'll pass on it. 

Pick Col RL+105 1.5U

Lean under 7.5-125

Sea (Vargas) at Det (Verlander), line +170/-180, 7.5

If Vargas pitches for NYY or Bos, he certainly would have been more celebrated.  Would probably have a better record as well, better than the 6-4 he is sporting now.  Instead he pitches for the bottom dweller Sea and has gone largely unnoticed.  His 2.80 ERA and 1.11 WHIP are amongst the AL leads.  His counterpart Verlander has a better W-L record at 9-5, with a decent 4.02 ERA.  Verlander has enjoyed very good run supports from his Det teammates, averaging 5.25 runs/game.  If you dug a bit deeper, you see that in his 5 losses Det scored 2.4 runs/game (this figure is skewed by 6 run support loss, 6-14).  In his wins, the run support averages 6.11 runs/game.  So the bottom line is that if he gets the run support, his stuff is good enough to give his team the W.  I think Vargas can keep the score low, hence at this price and the scoring trend in Verlander's games, Sea has a decent shot at stealing a win here.  I was on Sea yesterday as I thought similarly that Fister was getting a good price against Scherzer.  I did also mentioned the only thing I was afraid of was a letdown spot after a hard fought/good series against NYY.  Of course Sea didn't put up a fight and lost 7-1.  I think with a loss behind them, Sea will put up a better effort today.  I simply can't pass up this price with Vargas.  I lean under here, but not so crazy about the 7.5 -125 o/u line.   I would have bite at under 8 -110.  So just a lean on the under. 

Pick Sea +170 0.75U

Lean under 7.5 -125