Reds vs. Diamondbacks (Under 9.5)
Opening line on this game was raised to 9.5 likely due to both teams putting up big numbers the previous two games. This is typically what I like to see in a game 3 after the previous game or two go over. All month long, however, both teams have not hit for over 5 runs three games in a row. I’m going to follow the data and hope this trend continues.
Angels vs. Mets (Angels ML)
Game 3 between two bad teams. The Angels have performed better all season long in game 3 situations. The Mets come into the game with a combined 6 runs over the past 4 games and will either continue to sputter or do the complete opposite. There likely won’t be any in between. At plus money, the Angels seem to be the smart play.
Rockies vs. Orioles (Orioles RL)
A lopsided game 3 scenario between a really good team and a really bad team. The Orioles are the epitome of consistency when it comes to hitting the ball as they’ve only scored 3 runs or less one time in the past 8 games and 0 runs all month. I certainly don’t think this is a situation where that’s going to change. The Rockies have been hitting the ball better in the second half of the month, but they’ll likely need an output of at least 6 to have a chance which I don’t think they’ll get. They've lost their last four game 3's by 2+ runs and at even money we'll take this gamble on that continuing.
Cardinals vs. Phillies (Cautious)
This is nothing but a tale of two teams headed in opposite directions. This will surprise people, but the Phillies are the best hitting team this month. They’re red hot hitting the ball and they’ve scored 6+ in their last 4 games. The Cardinals are on the verge of getting swept and have been hit and miss when it comes to scoring runs. Here’s the catch though; I always pay attention to when teams score 12 runs or more in a game. More times than not you get a mediocre performance at best the following game and this could be a trap situation because we all know everyone and their grandmother is going to be backing the Phillies RL. If the Cards are able to muster up that random 6 run game, it could end up being a 6-4 Cardinals win to avoid a sweep.
Astros vs. Tigers (Under 8.5)
Welp, we nailed the Astros spot on for that 6+ run game. Have they turned things around? You would think so, but let me run this perspective by you. In about half of the game 3s this month, the Astros have been lights out and half they’ve literally struggled to score anything at all. The Tigers have only scored more than 4 runs 3 times in their past 12 games. This is a homecoming game for Verlander against Fadeo who’s given up only 5 earned runs in his last 4 games combined. It potentially sets up for a classic pitching duel situation and we’re gonna roll the dice on the half of the time the Astros struggle to score in a game the Tigers may have a chance to win.
Yankees vs. Rays (Rays RL)
This one could get ugly! The Yanks just had their best three game stretch of the month scoring runs before laying a goose egg last game. I expect more letdown from them against a Rays team who is in the upper third of run scoring consistency. The Rays just had back to back 2 and 3 run games and that likely won’t continue. 4 runs should take care of the Yankees.
Athletics vs. White Sox (White Sox ML & Under 9)
Welp, called it again on the Athletics coming down, off that two game hitting high and I think that continues. The White Sox on the flip side have been fairly steady scoring 5,5,4 and 6 runs in their last four games. They’ve not had many scoring outbursts of more than 6 runs this month and quite frankly, I think their current four game run scoring streak could be overdue, but the Athletics are 0-6 in game 4s so I will gamble on the White Sox getting it done in another ugly game, potentially even lower scoring than the 8 they put up last game.
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