Posted:
#1
Overall: 5-3-0 (+12.7*;+$1270)
Pick: Red Sox/Rays Over 10 (-115)
Let's start with an analysis of perception and line movement. Two solid pitchers according to naked eye. The betting public is currently hitting the UNDER 58% on under vs 42% on over. Despite the line opening at 9.5 it has moved to 10 with majority of money on the UNDER. SHARP ALERT!!! Smart money on the OVER!!
Let's dive deeper. Yes, Smyly has had 7 straight starts going 6+ innings and turning in 6 quality starts. He has also dominated BOS once already this season going 8.0 IP giving up 1 hit. But we have to look at the splits here to see the whole picture. Smyly struggles away from the Trop posting a nasty 5.38 ERA and even worse he must be a vampire because his daytime ERA is 5.65. I think his string of quality starts comes to an abrupt stop today!
On the flip side, Mr. Wright hasn't been all right lately. The 32 year old seems to be hitting a wall late in the season as he struggles with consistency and his velocity is down from beginning of season. His pre All star ERA was 2.68 and his post all star game ERA sits at 4.66 and he struggles at home posting a 4.30 ERA but his team picks him up and gives him tremendous run support in his starts averaging 4.77 RPG in home starts and this is evident with his 7-2 record. I think TB hits him early and often.
TB/BOS O10 (-105) 10* MUDDY SMELLY WHEELBARREL FULL OF MONEY
Pick: Red Sox/Rays Over 10 (-115)
Let's start with an analysis of perception and line movement. Two solid pitchers according to naked eye. The betting public is currently hitting the UNDER 58% on under vs 42% on over. Despite the line opening at 9.5 it has moved to 10 with majority of money on the UNDER. SHARP ALERT!!! Smart money on the OVER!!
Let's dive deeper. Yes, Smyly has had 7 straight starts going 6+ innings and turning in 6 quality starts. He has also dominated BOS once already this season going 8.0 IP giving up 1 hit. But we have to look at the splits here to see the whole picture. Smyly struggles away from the Trop posting a nasty 5.38 ERA and even worse he must be a vampire because his daytime ERA is 5.65. I think his string of quality starts comes to an abrupt stop today!
On the flip side, Mr. Wright hasn't been all right lately. The 32 year old seems to be hitting a wall late in the season as he struggles with consistency and his velocity is down from beginning of season. His pre All star ERA was 2.68 and his post all star game ERA sits at 4.66 and he struggles at home posting a 4.30 ERA but his team picks him up and gives him tremendous run support in his starts averaging 4.77 RPG in home starts and this is evident with his 7-2 record. I think TB hits him early and often.
TB/BOS O10 (-105) 10* MUDDY SMELLY WHEELBARREL FULL OF MONEY
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