Lucky to go 1-2 last night as Nelson Cruz delivered home the over, which simultaneously chalked up a loss on the Tigers. Continue to tread water in the Championship Series, but have to stick with the program of what got me here.
Detroit Tigers -125 (28 units to win 22.40)
Detroit Tigers RL +160 (12 units to win 19.20)
Detroit Tigers to Score First (20 units to win 19.05)
Texas / Detroit OVER 8.5 (24 units to win 20.87)
Before we start calling Colby Lewis Mr. October, let's recognize that he has one career postseason road start, tonight will be his second. His most recent road win came against a team who hit .236 at home and spent the final month+ of the season scratching and clawing their way into the playoffs. This is not to dilute Lewis' fine performance in one hitting the Rays, but he's facing a different animal tonight. The Tigers hit 50 points higher than the Rays at home and are in a must win. Their regulars hit just under .350 in their career vs. Colby Lewis.
This season, Lewis has faced 5 AL teams within the top 7 (Texas is there as is NY who Lewis didn't face) for Slugging Pct. In these starts, Lewis is 3-5 with a 7.78 ERA and 1.76 WHIP. He has allowed 17 homers and has only allowed less than 3 earned runs in one of the 10 starts.
Since becoming a member of the Tigers, Doug Fister holds a 0.60 ERA through the first three innings of his home starts. He has allowed one run within the first three innings across 5 home starts. In these starts, the Tigers have outscored their opponents 14-1. On the other side, Lewis' numbers through the first three innings is as follows:
1st inning : 5.63 ERA
2nd inning : 6.89 ERA
3rd inning : 3.77 ERA
These lineups have yet to really go off as the series has played to the under. Last night went over solely because of the walk off GS, but that was headed toward under money. I think the 8.5 is based on Fister sicne becoming a Tiger and Lewis' "dominance" in the postseason last two years. However, the Tigers have hit him hard in their career and this road test will be far more challenging than the one he was pressed with @ TB in the ALDS.
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