Posted:
#1
Pushed on the Konerko prop in last night's game, a game that tested the patience of either side for those on ML wagers. It is never easy for the Mariners in this ballpark, as they won for just the 4th time in their last 23 games on the South Side. And it took extra frames again.
Moving forward, Felix seems like a good deal at -133, and perhaps I land there, but first, I will have to explain away the horrid record the King has at this ballpark. In 7 career starts, the Mariners post a 1-6 record, Felix has allowed 10 HR's and the only win came in the nightcap of a double header way back in April of 2009.
I write a fair amount about guys/teams regressing to the mean, when talking about small sample sizes, and perhaps the opposite is true today . . . Felix is due to progress to the mean. Nonetheless, when making a play of that nature, It's much, much better to be on the other side of this price. Do I really want to lay 33 cents AND require a move to the mean? I'm not so sure that's a healthy way to build a bankroll.
Moving forward, Felix seems like a good deal at -133, and perhaps I land there, but first, I will have to explain away the horrid record the King has at this ballpark. In 7 career starts, the Mariners post a 1-6 record, Felix has allowed 10 HR's and the only win came in the nightcap of a double header way back in April of 2009.
I write a fair amount about guys/teams regressing to the mean, when talking about small sample sizes, and perhaps the opposite is true today . . . Felix is due to progress to the mean. Nonetheless, when making a play of that nature, It's much, much better to be on the other side of this price. Do I really want to lay 33 cents AND require a move to the mean? I'm not so sure that's a healthy way to build a bankroll.
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