Posted:
#1
Phillies -1.5, + 140 Hamels / Cain
I am going against most of the accepted wisdom here in that the public is betting the Phillies at a 66% clip, but the line is going down, indicating the Giants are drawing the big money bets. You know what? I can live with that because the smart money isn't always right and the public isn't always wrong. It's a matter of picking your spots. So what do I think I know that the smart doesn't and the public, even though betting the Phillies, is probably clueless about?
I have, per my own pitcher ratings, continuous throughout the season, Cole Hamels as the 2nd best lefty in all of MLB and a legitimate Cy Young contender. You say, "OK, so what?" Here is the so what.
The current reigning World Series Champion San Francisco Giants are currently the least productive team in all of Major League Baseball. In their last 15 versus Mr Lefty Starter they have scored an average of 2.1 earned runs while allowing those 15 starters to go an average of 6.73 innings per start. That is a 9 inning offensive era of just 2.76. The only time they faced #1, Kershaw, they were shutout, so 13 other starters they faced, (delete Hamels also) were well below the best.
The Giants are 9-6 in those last 15 but they have done it entirely with pitching and Cain got a 2-1 win in Phillie versus Hamels last week. If the Giants sweep at Phillie is not enough motivation, what do you suppose that World Championship banner flying over AT&T Park does for the Phillies.
Another significant edge is that the Phillies hit right handed pitching much better than the league average, and this is a day game, when the damp, cold air of evening will not hinder the long ball.
Reversal, we see it all the time in every sport. Some guys call it payback, some call it revenge.
I am going against most of the accepted wisdom here in that the public is betting the Phillies at a 66% clip, but the line is going down, indicating the Giants are drawing the big money bets. You know what? I can live with that because the smart money isn't always right and the public isn't always wrong. It's a matter of picking your spots. So what do I think I know that the smart doesn't and the public, even though betting the Phillies, is probably clueless about?
I have, per my own pitcher ratings, continuous throughout the season, Cole Hamels as the 2nd best lefty in all of MLB and a legitimate Cy Young contender. You say, "OK, so what?" Here is the so what.
The current reigning World Series Champion San Francisco Giants are currently the least productive team in all of Major League Baseball. In their last 15 versus Mr Lefty Starter they have scored an average of 2.1 earned runs while allowing those 15 starters to go an average of 6.73 innings per start. That is a 9 inning offensive era of just 2.76. The only time they faced #1, Kershaw, they were shutout, so 13 other starters they faced, (delete Hamels also) were well below the best.
The Giants are 9-6 in those last 15 but they have done it entirely with pitching and Cain got a 2-1 win in Phillie versus Hamels last week. If the Giants sweep at Phillie is not enough motivation, what do you suppose that World Championship banner flying over AT&T Park does for the Phillies.
Another significant edge is that the Phillies hit right handed pitching much better than the league average, and this is a day game, when the damp, cold air of evening will not hinder the long ball.
Reversal, we see it all the time in every sport. Some guys call it payback, some call it revenge.
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
0
.. Nice write up and good luck.
LETS DO THIS 
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