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Bob's MLB Saturday *** 6.25.16 ***

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Captain
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Posted: #1
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MLB 2016
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Summary
Record: 149-109-14 (58%)
Beginning Bankroll: $9,391
Avg. Wager Size: $110 (Unit = 1% of Bankroll)
Profit: +$3,460.75 (+36.85 Units), +11.51% Return on Risk

Splits
ML: 86-62 (58%)
F5: 2-4-2 (33%)
RL: 13-11-2 (54%)
O/U: 48-32-10 (60%)

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Performance History
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Overall
2016: 149-109-14 (58%), +11.51% Return on Risk
2015: 298-267-32 (53%), +6.46% Return on Risk
2014: 826-685-112 (55%), +4.13% Return on Risk

Picks of the Day
2016: 46-29-6 (61%), +18.59% Return on Risk
2015: 108-87-12 (55%), +14.17% Return on Risk
2014: 121-72-16 (63%), +16.60% Return on Risk

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Thursday
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3-3, +$33.94
https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=27&sub=102290752

That was the first time I have ever had a full game under lose in the 1st inning! That said, I feel robbed! 8 runs on 7 hits in the 1st inning, including a grand slam with 2 outs. Then, 1 run on 3 hits over the next 8 innings.

Cardinals. Terrible. Matheny needs to remove Rosey from the closing job.

So close to a big day. Boo.

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Friday
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Arizona Diamondbacks FG +125, Miller/De La Rosa

Houston Astros FG -120, Fiers/Young
 
Prospect
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Posted: #2
tough night for us with cards. I guess u win some u lose some but jeez man that was awful. bol birds.. will be with u on the snakes
 
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Posted: #3
Thursday / Friday should be Friday / Saturday
BOL 
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
 
Covers Rehab
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Posted: #4
You mean Saturday...right?
 
Captain
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Posted: #5
 
Veteran
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Posted: #6
Bol
 
Captain
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Posted: #7
Rosenthal had meltdowns for years...I missed this one thankfully but I always wondered why as smart a team as the Cards didn't replace him
 
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Posted: #8
Was on the wrong end of the Cards yesterday. I know what you are saying about being out of a game early. Volquez gave up 9 in the first for the Royals yesterday 

With you on the Astros today 
 
MVP
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Posted: #9
De La Rosa in the afternoon is decent enough pitcher
Miller has had some woes at Coors
GL
 
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Posted: #10
Like De La Rosa F5 and the over. BOL.
 
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Posted: #11
Miller will get knocked out of ballpark in first inning.
 
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Posted: #12
 
Prospect
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Posted: #13
Stayed up till midnight to watch Rosey blow the game. Matheny falling into his old habit of sticking with "his" bullpen guys when they obviously aren't getting it done. Oh should have pitched the 9th inning and even the announcers were saying it!

Oh well got that out, time for another day of baseball. I'll just send Matheny and Rosenthal a bill, good luck today!
 
Legend
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Posted: #14
Quote Originally Posted by fadeORdie:

Miller will get knocked out of ballpark in first inning.

I see a lot of improvements in Miller's delivery after his time off...they put him on the DL for a reason but I don't think he was seriously hurt

I'm liking the Snakes at +$ today
 
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Posted: #15
Classic baseball craziness with the Cards.

Oh gets the 2-3-4 hitters on a 1-2-3 inning and then comes Rosenthal and gives a double, a walk and a HR.

Great job Rosenthal.
 
Captain
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Posted: #16
A few notes for those who like the De La Rosa or dislike Miller:
  • My wager is on Arizona's offense more so than on Miller. They possess the highest OPS vs. lefties in MLB (.846).
  • De La Rosa has 1 day game start this season. Not a good case to be made there as far as splits go. This is not the same pitcher from 3-5 years ago, who had decent stuff and was money at home.
  • Dbacks have won 10 of their last 13, while the Rockies have dropped 6 of their last 7 games.
Over the long-run, you will have more success wagering on teams who have more advantages than disadvantages when those teams are priced at plus odds. This game is a false favorite. I have the Dbacks at -115.
 
Captain
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Posted: #17
Quote Originally Posted by Berkshire:

Bob do u have any lean on Indians? I really like them, just curious what you thought of that price?  If you have time. Thanks


I capped at 58% win probability for the Indians (-135 to -140). Line looks fair to me (i.e., priced correctly).
 
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Posted: #18
 
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Saturday *** Updated ***
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Arizona Diamondbacks FG +125, Miller/De La Rosa

St. Louis/Seattle Over 8 FG -110, Leake/Karnes

Houston Astros FG -120, Fiers/Young

Los Angeles/Pittsburgh Over 4 F5 -125, Maeda/Locke

Chicago/Miami Over 4 F5 -130, Lackey/Clemens
 
Legend
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Posted: #20


~~~~~ZOSO~~~~~
 
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Posted: #21
Tailing the first 3 picks.  My book has over4.5 F5, not over4.0 - for the last 2 so I will opt out.

BOL to everyone today.   
 
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Posted: #22
BOL Bob.....leaning hard on Seattle OVER too.
 
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Posted: #23
Nice stress free Cubs winner. Please limit your selections to more like that in future. No bullpens required!
 
Captain
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Posted: #24
3-2, +$63.96
Arizona Diamondbacks FG +125, Miller/De La Rosa
St. Louis/Seattle Over 8 FG -110, Leake/Karnes
Houston Astros FG -120, Fiers/Young
Los Angeles/Pittsburgh Over 4 F5 -125, Maeda/Locke
Chicago/Miami Over 4 F5 -130, Lackey/Clemens
 
 
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Posted: #25
Taking another of the big apple
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