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Overall Record
YTD: 722-599-99 (55%) *** +3.05% Return on Risk ***
ML: 215-188 (53%)
F5: 172-144-57 (54%)
RL: 30-46-1 (40%)
O/U: 305-221-41 (58%)
Starting / Current Bankroll: $1,500 / $1,910 (+27%)
Picks of the Day Record
YTD: 72-46-12 (61%) *** +12.70% Return on Risk ***
ML: 20-9 (69%)
F5: 24-14-4 (63%)
RL: 3-6 (33%)
O/U: 25-17-8 (60%)
Yesterday's Results, 9/1/2014
Record: 4-5-1 (56%), PODs: 4-0-0 (100%) / RPs: 0-5-1 (0%)
Risked / To Win: 9.00 Units / 9.41 Units (avg. line of +105)
Profit: -1.78 Units / -$34.57
Return on Risk: -19.75%
https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=27&sub=101939386
Bet Sizing: 1 Unit is 1% of my bankroll (~$20 as of today). Admittedly, I place relatively small wagers in comparison to other bettors on individual plays. But, to put things into perspective, if you were a dime bettor and followed all of my plays you would be up $, on the season based on my return on risk performance.
Number of plays: I have received some feedback regarding the amount of action (plays) I have each day. I often elect to spread my risk out by selecting wagers that express the same view. So, while the number of bets might seem high, 2-3 plays on the same game can often be consolidated into 1 play with more concentrated risk. For example, sometimes I split my risk between the first 5 innings and the full game while also placing a wager on the run total.
Diversification/Money Management: Remember, you can express a view in a number of ways and it's about finding the cheapest way with the best risk/reward profile. Don't fall into the trap of putting too much risk in one place. You (and I) will lose "sure thing" wagers, so limiting the damage from one pick is imperative. If there is one takeaway this is it. Diversification is key to money management. There's a reason why I have placed 1,000+ wagers this season and still have my original bankroll (and some profit) to play with in the second half! As the season goes on, I will begin wagering plays with higher payouts but only with a portion of my profit.
Picks of the Day (POD) / Regular Play (RP): Going forward I will color code my plays to differentiate between my favorite plays (orange) and my regular value plays (blue). I won't necessarily size any differently. A few people approached me and asked me to do this, so I am going to try it out for the second half of the season. Maybe I will discover something that I can incorporate for the next season.
Record Split (POD vs. RP): I have placed more than 400 wagers since I started differentiating between Regular Picks and Picks of the Day. The results have uncovered that I have been quite awful - coincidentally or by method of selection - with my regular plays. My hit rate on PODs is 61% with a return on risk of 12.70%, compared to a 50% hit rate and a negative return on risk for RPs. For the last month, I am going to experiment by sizing PODs and RPs at 1.50% of bankroll and 1.00% of bankroll, respectively.
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