Posted:
#1
I haven't been much good at picking totals (see my record for proof), but it's hard not to like OVER the 8.5 here.
The slumbering Braves bats seem to have awakened over the past week or so, and today they get an AL park (Gattis is in as DH and Laird will be catching) and a hittable pitcher in Feldman.
The Astros likewise get a still-overrated and hittable pitcher in Aaron Harang, who appears to have been unlucky in giving up 8 ER in his last outing. But as I've warned folks here of Harang's impending correction, he had been twice as lucky early on in the season. Sure, he may correct himself and pitch a CG shutout, but that's about as statistically likely as his hitting a homer today. What's different about Harang? For one thing, his K/9 is down from nearly 9 a month ago to just 5.8 over the past 30 days. That's more balls in play--increasingly in the form of linedrives (15% to 24%).
Instead of the surface ERAs on these two pitchers, read the expected ERAs which hover over 4. And the numbers don't figure to get prettier as the season rolls along.
The slumbering Braves bats seem to have awakened over the past week or so, and today they get an AL park (Gattis is in as DH and Laird will be catching) and a hittable pitcher in Feldman.
The Astros likewise get a still-overrated and hittable pitcher in Aaron Harang, who appears to have been unlucky in giving up 8 ER in his last outing. But as I've warned folks here of Harang's impending correction, he had been twice as lucky early on in the season. Sure, he may correct himself and pitch a CG shutout, but that's about as statistically likely as his hitting a homer today. What's different about Harang? For one thing, his K/9 is down from nearly 9 a month ago to just 5.8 over the past 30 days. That's more balls in play--increasingly in the form of linedrives (15% to 24%).
Instead of the surface ERAs on these two pitchers, read the expected ERAs which hover over 4. And the numbers don't figure to get prettier as the season rolls along.
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