In the first game we had the CUBS (https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=27&sub=102289423) at home in the stand alone ESPN Sunday nighter. With Kendricks on the bump against highly talented yet very inexperienced rookie (and Canadian "stock") Jameson Taillon on the hill. Yet the CUBS who while winning at a 65% clip only had a tag of -155. While hosting a BUCS squad that was something like 1-9 last 10 and 5-15 last 20 games. But as it turns out the line wasn't smelling like Jersey Shore at low tide a.k.a Lady GaGa's cod piece. it was just strong value as the game was hardly ever in doubt and the CUBS cruised to an easy DUB.
Game two of the three was the now scalding hot person (https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=27&sub=102290397) and Trevor Bauer facing the then ultra-strugglin' RAYS with Chris "Don't call me Sterling" Archer and his f-ugly road splits in CLE.
That game was also never in doubt with the person tacking a 3 spot on the board in their half of the first inning which were all they needed as they took the contest 6-1.
The 3rd and most recent of this franchise was nowhere near as comfortable as BOS kept getting Lames Shields on the ropes but was never able to land the knockout blow. However they did touch him up enough to get him out relatively early and then the BOSUX bats win the battle of the pens and outscore a weak hitting WSUX team,taking it late with an 8-7 score.
But now even after hitting the first 3 games I still feel a bit uneasy about this next line. Almost like it's a fishy or sucker line and not just proper value. Actually if I'm honest this one even more than the others because for the first time in the bunch this one is a live dog.
I mean I I honestly am flat out shocked and truly believe the books have the wrong team favoured here. And the only reason I can think of,admittedly as silly as it is. Is that the books MAYBE don't want to offer the person as faves. And therefore give the road team (which I love playing on the -1.5 because they always get 27 at bats even when leading headed to the 9th) extra +$. But nowadays with all the options at books almost everywhere offers alternate run-lines. So even thats a stretch for an explanation.
So I once again find myself thinking.Is this solid value ?? Or is this line fishier than Lady GaGa's hoo hoo after a triple encore ??
...
to be continued
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
In the first game we had the CUBS (https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=27&sub=102289423) at home in the stand alone ESPN Sunday nighter. With Kendricks on the bump against highly talented yet very inexperienced rookie (and Canadian "stock") Jameson Taillon on the hill. Yet the CUBS who while winning at a 65% clip only had a tag of -155. While hosting a BUCS squad that was something like 1-9 last 10 and 5-15 last 20 games. But as it turns out the line wasn't smelling like Jersey Shore at low tide a.k.a Lady GaGa's cod piece. it was just strong value as the game was hardly ever in doubt and the CUBS cruised to an easy DUB.
Game two of the three was the now scalding hot person (https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=27&sub=102290397) and Trevor Bauer facing the then ultra-strugglin' RAYS with Chris "Don't call me Sterling" Archer and his f-ugly road splits in CLE.
That game was also never in doubt with the person tacking a 3 spot on the board in their half of the first inning which were all they needed as they took the contest 6-1.
The 3rd and most recent of this franchise was nowhere near as comfortable as BOS kept getting Lames Shields on the ropes but was never able to land the knockout blow. However they did touch him up enough to get him out relatively early and then the BOSUX bats win the battle of the pens and outscore a weak hitting WSUX team,taking it late with an 8-7 score.
But now even after hitting the first 3 games I still feel a bit uneasy about this next line. Almost like it's a fishy or sucker line and not just proper value. Actually if I'm honest this one even more than the others because for the first time in the bunch this one is a live dog.
I mean I I honestly am flat out shocked and truly believe the books have the wrong team favoured here. And the only reason I can think of,admittedly as silly as it is. Is that the books MAYBE don't want to offer the person as faves. And therefore give the road team (which I love playing on the -1.5 because they always get 27 at bats even when leading headed to the 9th) extra +$. But nowadays with all the options at books almost everywhere offers alternate run-lines. So even thats a stretch for an explanation.
So I once again find myself thinking.Is this solid value ?? Or is this line fishier than Lady GaGa's hoo hoo after a triple encore ??
I mean this just doesn't add up. We have the person who are not only 48-30 overall but also 25-18 on the road.....and oh yeah trying to set a franchise record 14th straight win tomorrow. Against a JAYS team that needed 24 games to earn their last 13 wins. And WAS but is no longer playing very well. And who are also only a mediocre 5 games above 500 overall at 43-38 and even less impressive 19-18 at home.
So current and overall form BOTH go to the person so lets see what they're sending to the hill Friday afternoon.
You have Josh Tomlin on the bump for CLE who has a brilliant 9-1 record on the year and CLE is a sizzling 12-2 when he takes the mound. Overall this season his whip is 1.06 and he owns a 3.32 era.
Conversely Stroman has a 6-4 record which is a pure gift of run support. As the JAYS are a bit more realistic 8-8- when he throws,which is still somewhat lucky after seeing his 1.42 whip and 5.33 era for the year.
And these numbers head in opposite directions even more when looking at the last 3 starts respectively.
Tomlin's L3 have him at 1-0 and CLE at 2-1 with all 3 being quality starts (actually it's 5 straight quality starts and 8 in his last 9 outings for those who are counting...I AM !!) throwing 18 innings pitched with a sharp 0.86 whip and 2.82 era.
And Marcus "NO GO STRO SHOW" Stroman is just a wee bit worse. He is 1-2 as are the JAYS which is not surprising considering he's only mustered up 15.2 innings while racking up 23 hits and a whip of 1.79 and a jumbo jet sized era of 7.47 coming outta the sky why don't take me down to Memphis...ughh close enough..
And although I don't have the exact numbers in hand at the moment (it's a long 4-day weekend and I've had some pops so pissoff) I remember seeing last weekend that Stro was something like the 105th ranked pitcher out of 135 or something. Over his last starts. With a whip around a deuce and an era tickling 8.
So long story not so short is. Could the JAYS and more so Stroman pull a complete 180,stop throwing hanging cement mixer breaking balls up over the plate,being wild in the zone and go from one of the worst pitches in the league last half dozen plus starts. To shutting down a team thats hotter than Charlize Theron and Rebecca Romijn in a whip-cream bikini finger-bang competition ???
Well sure I guess they could. But rule 101 for me is to always ride a trend and never try and buck. So lets go for 4 AND 0 and take the person as live dogs no less. To grab the W in the T-DOT on Canada day.
p.s I will also be using the CLE +1.5 on a shitload of parlays for this weekend......off the top of my head BELGIUM,BELGIUM/WALES OVER 2,TiCATS ML and STAMPS ML are all on that list.
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I mean this just doesn't add up. We have the person who are not only 48-30 overall but also 25-18 on the road.....and oh yeah trying to set a franchise record 14th straight win tomorrow. Against a JAYS team that needed 24 games to earn their last 13 wins. And WAS but is no longer playing very well. And who are also only a mediocre 5 games above 500 overall at 43-38 and even less impressive 19-18 at home.
So current and overall form BOTH go to the person so lets see what they're sending to the hill Friday afternoon.
You have Josh Tomlin on the bump for CLE who has a brilliant 9-1 record on the year and CLE is a sizzling 12-2 when he takes the mound. Overall this season his whip is 1.06 and he owns a 3.32 era.
Conversely Stroman has a 6-4 record which is a pure gift of run support. As the JAYS are a bit more realistic 8-8- when he throws,which is still somewhat lucky after seeing his 1.42 whip and 5.33 era for the year.
And these numbers head in opposite directions even more when looking at the last 3 starts respectively.
Tomlin's L3 have him at 1-0 and CLE at 2-1 with all 3 being quality starts (actually it's 5 straight quality starts and 8 in his last 9 outings for those who are counting...I AM !!) throwing 18 innings pitched with a sharp 0.86 whip and 2.82 era.
And Marcus "NO GO STRO SHOW" Stroman is just a wee bit worse. He is 1-2 as are the JAYS which is not surprising considering he's only mustered up 15.2 innings while racking up 23 hits and a whip of 1.79 and a jumbo jet sized era of 7.47 coming outta the sky why don't take me down to Memphis...ughh close enough..
And although I don't have the exact numbers in hand at the moment (it's a long 4-day weekend and I've had some pops so pissoff) I remember seeing last weekend that Stro was something like the 105th ranked pitcher out of 135 or something. Over his last starts. With a whip around a deuce and an era tickling 8.
So long story not so short is. Could the JAYS and more so Stroman pull a complete 180,stop throwing hanging cement mixer breaking balls up over the plate,being wild in the zone and go from one of the worst pitches in the league last half dozen plus starts. To shutting down a team thats hotter than Charlize Theron and Rebecca Romijn in a whip-cream bikini finger-bang competition ???
Well sure I guess they could. But rule 101 for me is to always ride a trend and never try and buck. So lets go for 4 AND 0 and take the person as live dogs no less. To grab the W in the T-DOT on Canada day.
p.s I will also be using the CLE +1.5 on a shitload of parlays for this weekend......off the top of my head BELGIUM,BELGIUM/WALES OVER 2,TiCATS ML and STAMPS ML are all on that list.
Your pick and argument is inconsistent here. The fishy line was the double digit winning streak team with a pitcher who has been great lately getting + money.
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Your pick and argument is inconsistent here. The fishy line was the double digit winning streak team with a pitcher who has been great lately getting + money.
Your pick and argument is inconsistent here. The fishy line was the double digit winning streak team with a pitcher who has been great lately getting + money.
What I'm saying here is the line could seem fishy to some with it being so cheap. With the thinking of why is a scalding hot team the dog ??
But if you look at the other 2 links and 3 picks that I've had the same argument with. I always take the "fishy" line believing it is is just solid value. And have said many many times on here that I don't believe the book is out to "trick" or "trap" us or "rig" games nearly as much as people think,thats usually just a biotch excuse for puzzies who can't admit they were on the wrong side.
And also that books are just trying to get equal money on both sides and then they leave the gambling to us and they collect their vig no matter who wins. The books are not in the gambling business. The house usually wins cuz when they do their job they collect regardless of the games outcome.
Look at the CUBS hosting the BUCS and Taillon the other weekend. I could see why many thought CUBS ML -155 seemed fishy cuz it was so low for a CUBS team on fire playing a PITTY team that was 1-9 L10 and 5-15 last 20.
But like today decided I would take the shot at the line value. Same with the person vs TB and Archer last week. I thought CLE would be way more expensive than they were. But rather than let a "fishy" line scare me off I took CLE as strong value.
And then same deal with a great BOSUX offense getting a low line against Lames Shields and his 21+ era. Many people said the line seemed like they were trying to trap us. But rather than play the old "Princess Bride" mind game and go back and forth thinking is this a trap,maybe he knows I think it's a trap,maybe he knows I think it's a trap so it's not a trap ect ect. lolol I just took it as proper line value and took the team at what ultimately turned out to be a bargin price.
Long story short-ISH irf you look at the last line of the first thread of this tittle I asked "is the line fishier than Lady GaGa's hoo hoo ??"".....and then said rhetorical because I clearly did not think it was.
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Quote Originally Posted by housemoney21:
Your pick and argument is inconsistent here. The fishy line was the double digit winning streak team with a pitcher who has been great lately getting + money.
What I'm saying here is the line could seem fishy to some with it being so cheap. With the thinking of why is a scalding hot team the dog ??
But if you look at the other 2 links and 3 picks that I've had the same argument with. I always take the "fishy" line believing it is is just solid value. And have said many many times on here that I don't believe the book is out to "trick" or "trap" us or "rig" games nearly as much as people think,thats usually just a biotch excuse for puzzies who can't admit they were on the wrong side.
And also that books are just trying to get equal money on both sides and then they leave the gambling to us and they collect their vig no matter who wins. The books are not in the gambling business. The house usually wins cuz when they do their job they collect regardless of the games outcome.
Look at the CUBS hosting the BUCS and Taillon the other weekend. I could see why many thought CUBS ML -155 seemed fishy cuz it was so low for a CUBS team on fire playing a PITTY team that was 1-9 L10 and 5-15 last 20.
But like today decided I would take the shot at the line value. Same with the person vs TB and Archer last week. I thought CLE would be way more expensive than they were. But rather than let a "fishy" line scare me off I took CLE as strong value.
And then same deal with a great BOSUX offense getting a low line against Lames Shields and his 21+ era. Many people said the line seemed like they were trying to trap us. But rather than play the old "Princess Bride" mind game and go back and forth thinking is this a trap,maybe he knows I think it's a trap,maybe he knows I think it's a trap so it's not a trap ect ect. lolol I just took it as proper line value and took the team at what ultimately turned out to be a bargin price.
Long story short-ISH irf you look at the last line of the first thread of this tittle I asked "is the line fishier than Lady GaGa's hoo hoo ??"".....and then said rhetorical because I clearly did not think it was.
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