Cubs @ Marlins

While looking over today's schedule, I passively noted "Cubs win" on this one, probably because they have the better pitcher today and they lost yesterday, scoring but two runs although they hit several balls hard.  So at the price, I figured "pass," as the Marlins have been playing well, too.

Then I returned to the game, noting Zambrano's surprisingly still- low (I thought) ERA.  I did some number-crunching, and--sure enough--Zambrano has been more lucky than he has been good.  His expected ERA (baseball statisticians refer to this as the xERA) is a full run over his actual ERA, in part because the hit rate is (overly) low against him, even as his Ks are down, and in part because he's stranded far more runners than his skill set would otherwise allow.

In other words, Zambrano is due for some correction.  Granted, this doesn't happen in a single game, of course; but in his last outing he had a 100% strand rate, which included getting away with 4 BB in 7IP.  Add that to the fact that the Marlins, while they whiff a lot, have been hitting well (though not overly so)--and the price.  That seals the deal for me on this particular game.

I'll take the Marlins in Landshark Stadium for that kind of change.

Good read.

Late money coming in on the fish.  You could be on to something.  GL.