Posted:
#1
I went 0-5 on Thursday for -5.25 units. No plays Friday.
White Sox ML(-127) *7.50/5.91
Giolito/Keller listed
White Sox RL(+120) *2.50/3.00
Giolito/Keller listed
Royals TT UNDER 3.5(+105) *1.11/1.17
Yea that's a total of $1,111 risked, to win $1,008 all 3 combined. Superstition sets in once in a while...11:11 make a wish.
So what do we have here? Artificial home field advantage I suppose is one thing. Giolito in his career(this includes all the bad times pre 2019) at Kaufman .202 BA allowed, .664 OPS allowed, and a run for every 11.73 PA's. Not bad, even with stats caked in when he was a completely different guy
No respect for Giolito could be the other. The dudes name is just too much to get passed, especially for the #'s only cappers who are itching at regression.
If you watched and understood who he was before, and who he is now, what could make him regress to then? He dumped his 2 seam fast ball, a pitch that had a lot of run. Unfortunately it ran back over the plate too often. Before he used 2 different change up grips. In an interview he admitted that before games he didn't know which one was going to work for him, even during warm ups. Now he has stuck with one grip(he called it a 2 seam grip circle change) The fascinating thing about the action of the pitch is the lack of action. No tail, no cut, no sink. It flat out runs on a line like a fastball. There is no way for hitters to recognize it. Steve Stone has referred to it as a "parachute change". And this pitch(on average) is 12.1 mph slower than his 4 seam fastball. There are a handful of MLB hitters who are keen to adjusting their swings to a change up. Especially if they can recognize it due to movement or even catching a glimpse of the grip if that pitcher is not hiding the ball well enough. These hitters are good at sitting back, shortening their swings and poking it the other way. Worst case they know how to foul it off and see another pitch. But this particular change up is undetectable. And the change in speed is tremendous.
His slider has also been sharp. He can throw it over for a strike when he wants, and sinks it out of the zone as a wipe out pitch in a 2 strike count.
If that doesn't vibe with you, let's look at some #'s, and compare them to Keller's. These are the rankings among all starting pitchers.
Giolito 2019:
FIP= 2.63, #4
WHIP= .95, #7
BA= .186, #5
K%= 29.9%, #14
HARD HIT%= 31.9%, #13
Now let's scratch April, since May 1st, a (+) for improvement:
FIP= 2.16 +
WHIP= .80 +
BA= .173 +
K%= 30.4% +
HARD HIT= 31.6% +
Keller 2019:
FIP= 4.15, #66
WHIP= 1.45, #102
BA= .243, #158
K%= 15.7%, #116
HARD HIT= 36.5%, #43
Scratch April, since May 1st:
FIP= 3.65 +
WHIP= 1.61 -
BA= .279 -
K%= 14.6% -
HARD HIT= 37.3% -
If you are wondering why Keller's FIP rating got better over this stretch, it's because pocket protector wearing office nerds are in charge of asserting these ratings and must of found him "unlucky"
The only area of concern I found is Lucas Giolito on 5 days rest. Looking a little deeper it was only 3 games in which 2 were bad. Both came early in the year. April 6th vs Seattle when the Mariners were hotter than anyone. April 12th @ Yankees stadium, short porch, hitters park yada yada. Kaufman is the polar opposite. In his 3rd game on 5 days rest was vs the Jays on May 18th. Stat line: 5 innings, 3 hits, 2 walks, 4 K's, 1.80 ERA, 2.70 FIP. He actually labored in this one for the Jays just saw him on the 12th. It's never good for a pitcher to go up against a team who just went against him, and he still held his own.
Hitting wise, the Sox are getting at RHP better than the Royals recently. Since the Sox last played the Royals they've faced tougher RHP than the Royals: Carrasco, Bauer, Jefry Rdriguez, Plesac, Strasburg and Anibal Sanchez. KC has faced Ryan Webber, Adrian Sampson, Lance Lynn and Jurado.
The Sox are hitting much better in the later innings.
Bullpen edge goes to the Sox.
I'm out of thoughts, hope this one comes through, Good Luck
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