Posted:
#1
I look at betting baseball totals as one giant algorithm that requires weighted variables that influence each game's outcome, such as probable pitchers, park factors, matchups, weather, etc.
When a new variable is introduced into the game, such as instant replay, its going to affect the game's outcome one way or the other, even if the difference is miniscule. This means new data must be collected and implemented into the algorithm. Now I'm no science major, but I have a theory that suggests run totals are slightly overvalued because of the unseen consequences of instant replay. Here are two key things to consider:
1) Most of the calls umpires get wrong are the ones that rule a runner safe when he is actually out. The play is so bang/bang that they are prone to erring on the side of the offense. Hence the phrase: "Tie goes to the runner." Now that instant replay has come along, these mistakes will be corrected more often. Sure it can go either way, but most of the overturned decisions we will observe are ones that correctly rule a runner OUT.
2) The implementation of instant replay is going to give managers more freedom to go out and dispute calls, especially from the 7th inning onwards when replay is available but the decision is out of their control. These disruptions in the game normally happen at key junctures when there are runners on base. Stoppages in play will occur MUCH more often in this new environment of instant replay.
The effect? A delay in action in the middle of the inning can do just enough to mess up a batter's rhythm and ultimately zap the momentum out of a rally. Add this to replay ruling more calls OUT than SAFE, the result is fewer opportunities to score, thus fewer runs scored.
When a new variable is introduced into the game, such as instant replay, its going to affect the game's outcome one way or the other, even if the difference is miniscule. This means new data must be collected and implemented into the algorithm. Now I'm no science major, but I have a theory that suggests run totals are slightly overvalued because of the unseen consequences of instant replay. Here are two key things to consider:
1) Most of the calls umpires get wrong are the ones that rule a runner safe when he is actually out. The play is so bang/bang that they are prone to erring on the side of the offense. Hence the phrase: "Tie goes to the runner." Now that instant replay has come along, these mistakes will be corrected more often. Sure it can go either way, but most of the overturned decisions we will observe are ones that correctly rule a runner OUT.
2) The implementation of instant replay is going to give managers more freedom to go out and dispute calls, especially from the 7th inning onwards when replay is available but the decision is out of their control. These disruptions in the game normally happen at key junctures when there are runners on base. Stoppages in play will occur MUCH more often in this new environment of instant replay.
The effect? A delay in action in the middle of the inning can do just enough to mess up a batter's rhythm and ultimately zap the momentum out of a rally. Add this to replay ruling more calls OUT than SAFE, the result is fewer opportunities to score, thus fewer runs scored.
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