I want to have a discussion about the value in betting F5 as opposed to full game bets which most people make. To me it seems that there is more value in betting F5 as team's leading after 5 innings usually have a 60-65% odds of winning. Meanwhile a heavy favorite should cover a F5 bet no less than 75 % of the time. (Push included). Like for example last night's Jays game I took the better lineup and better pitcher but for fill game and even though Jays led after 5 they blew the game,
The night before I took Dodgers F5 and thank god I did because they loss 1-0 and I ended up with a push. So is it more profitable in the long run to do F5 bets or just stick to full games and give yourself a chance if your down in the late innings?
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
I want to have a discussion about the value in betting F5 as opposed to full game bets which most people make. To me it seems that there is more value in betting F5 as team's leading after 5 innings usually have a 60-65% odds of winning. Meanwhile a heavy favorite should cover a F5 bet no less than 75 % of the time. (Push included). Like for example last night's Jays game I took the better lineup and better pitcher but for fill game and even though Jays led after 5 they blew the game,
The night before I took Dodgers F5 and thank god I did because they loss 1-0 and I ended up with a push. So is it more profitable in the long run to do F5 bets or just stick to full games and give yourself a chance if your down in the late innings?
- wager F5 and you have a significantly higher degree of knowledge of who the pitchers will be (i.e., wagering on starting pitching mismatch).
- home teams have an advantage in tie games going into the late innings.
- you can push F5
- you don't want exposure to the bullpens
- weather forecast (i.e., potential rain delays)
- you will see big variations between F5 and FG when there are: starting pitching mismatches, bullpen mismatches, and home vs. away teams depending on how close to parity the teams are.
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I will make it simple. Here are a few factors:
- wager F5 and you have a significantly higher degree of knowledge of who the pitchers will be (i.e., wagering on starting pitching mismatch).
- home teams have an advantage in tie games going into the late innings.
- you can push F5
- you don't want exposure to the bullpens
- weather forecast (i.e., potential rain delays)
- you will see big variations between F5 and FG when there are: starting pitching mismatches, bullpen mismatches, and home vs. away teams depending on how close to parity the teams are.
- wager F5 and you have a significantly higher degree of knowledge of who the pitchers will be (i.e., wagering on starting pitching mismatch).
- home teams have an advantage in tie games going into the late innings.
- you can push F5
- you don't want exposure to the bullpens
- weather forecast (i.e., potential rain delays)
- you will see big variations between F5 and FG when there are: starting pitching mismatches, bullpen mismatches, and home vs. away teams depending on how close to parity the teams are.
Nice take
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Quote Originally Posted by BirdsOnBat:
I will make it simple. Here are a few factors:
- wager F5 and you have a significantly higher degree of knowledge of who the pitchers will be (i.e., wagering on starting pitching mismatch).
- home teams have an advantage in tie games going into the late innings.
- you can push F5
- you don't want exposure to the bullpens
- weather forecast (i.e., potential rain delays)
- you will see big variations between F5 and FG when there are: starting pitching mismatches, bullpen mismatches, and home vs. away teams depending on how close to parity the teams are.
Superior starting pitching will win 57% of all 5 inning games
Superior starting pitching will win 59% of all full games
pushes are ignored in the 5 inning stats.
The disparity is probably caused by the fact the superior starting pitcher will usually go deeper into the game, causing less stress to his bullpen.
There are two primary negatives to the 5 inning game
1) The lines do not open until mid-morning, and therefore are adjusted to what has already impacted the full game line, and
2) Most books have a 15 or 20 cent money line on 5 inning plays, as opposed to dime lines on the full game
Never forget that "the better team" is not a matter of the better record or average runs scored. The pitching in every single game affects the quality of "the team" and can drastically affect their power rating on that given day. That is why, basically, power ratings on baseball teams are worthless. The pitching affects everything and the true power of a team changes every day.
So, like many other things in life 5 vs. 9 is a good news, bad news proposition and each game is an individual judgment. The only firm "carved in stone" rule I have for 5 vs. 9 is that you have a distinct advantage at one or the other that may not exist with "the other".
If offenses are comparable you absolutely MUST have the superior starting pitcher to play 5 innings. Add the better bullpen and you may decide to go full game for better odds. BOL
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
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According to my data base
Superior starting pitching will win 57% of all 5 inning games
Superior starting pitching will win 59% of all full games
pushes are ignored in the 5 inning stats.
The disparity is probably caused by the fact the superior starting pitcher will usually go deeper into the game, causing less stress to his bullpen.
There are two primary negatives to the 5 inning game
1) The lines do not open until mid-morning, and therefore are adjusted to what has already impacted the full game line, and
2) Most books have a 15 or 20 cent money line on 5 inning plays, as opposed to dime lines on the full game
Never forget that "the better team" is not a matter of the better record or average runs scored. The pitching in every single game affects the quality of "the team" and can drastically affect their power rating on that given day. That is why, basically, power ratings on baseball teams are worthless. The pitching affects everything and the true power of a team changes every day.
So, like many other things in life 5 vs. 9 is a good news, bad news proposition and each game is an individual judgment. The only firm "carved in stone" rule I have for 5 vs. 9 is that you have a distinct advantage at one or the other that may not exist with "the other".
If offenses are comparable you absolutely MUST have the superior starting pitcher to play 5 innings. Add the better bullpen and you may decide to go full game for better odds. BOL
Exactly what Birdsonbat said. It depends who's got a strong bull pen, and the pitchers records vs team record for pitcher on games started. (TRGS) You might have a pitcher that is 10-1 record.. but if you look at how many games he's started and the outcome of those 17 games is 10-7 then that's a good indicator that you take the 1st 5 but if the pitchers record is 1-10 but you see that the teams record on the games that pitcher's started is 7-10 then that means the bull pen pulls the weight and then win more when the pitcher is taken out then you take full game.
That's just one angle
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Exactly what Birdsonbat said. It depends who's got a strong bull pen, and the pitchers records vs team record for pitcher on games started. (TRGS) You might have a pitcher that is 10-1 record.. but if you look at how many games he's started and the outcome of those 17 games is 10-7 then that's a good indicator that you take the 1st 5 but if the pitchers record is 1-10 but you see that the teams record on the games that pitcher's started is 7-10 then that means the bull pen pulls the weight and then win more when the pitcher is taken out then you take full game.
Which game offers the best F5 bet tonight? I can't go for anything crazy like the Nats or Cubs line. Something that should hit but is reasonably priced.
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Which game offers the best F5 bet tonight? I can't go for anything crazy like the Nats or Cubs line. Something that should hit but is reasonably priced.
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