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First Inning Runs 5/2

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Captain
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Posted: #1
First Inning Runs picks based on historical outcomes stratified by the full game O/U, the only variable that is highly correlated to the outcome of this prop.

Overall: 89-61 +32.9 units, last season 180-170 +37.05 units
Current YTD YES%=54.5%

On a 48-21, +42.5 units run over the last 9 days.  Don't know how long it will last but it's been a fun ride.

Tex/Tor YES -105, 1 unit (must bet -110 or better)
KC/Det YES +110, 2 units (must bet +101 or better)
NYM/Hou YES +100, 1 unit (must bet -105 or better)
LA/Col YES -105, 1 unit (must bet -110 or better)

Will post later games as lines come out.

GL
 
Captain
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Posted: #2

here are my lines all for YES  what do u think

tx +110

kc +110

nym +105

colo ev

 

 
Prospect
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Posted: #3
BOL today! 
 
Captain
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Posted: #4
mrod, all 4 of those lines are positive expectation plays. 

GL
 
Captain
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Posted: #5
 
Captain
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Posted: #6
1-2, +0.15 units on the first 3 games.  Adding:

Mil/SD NO -135, 3 units (must bet -163 or better)
Phi/Atl NO -145, 2 units (must bet -163 or better)
Oak/Bos YES -105, 1 unit (must bet -110 or better)
Sea/TB YES +115, 2 units (must bet +101 or better)
Cle/CWS YES +100, 1 unit (must bet -105 or better)
Min/LAA YES +115, 2 units (must bet +101 or better)
Mia/SF YES +120, 1 unit (must bet +114 or better)

GL


 
Rookie
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Posted: #7
 GL TG
 
Captain
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Posted: #8
fucking hate when they have runners on third and dont score & we lose and then the nexxt damn inning they score 3?  lmao      rest of the day
 
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Posted: #9
Best of Luck 
 
Prospect
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Posted: #10
Totalguy: love your picks. Have some questions for you. 

When you say "highly correlated", youre running some regressions? If so, im curious how score in the first inning is more positively correlated to total game o/u than it is to 1st 5 innings o/u.  Especially this season. 1st inning is 100% starting pitcher-based and logically, 1st 5 is more starting pitcher based than total game (i.e., relievers start comin in around the 6th inning).

Alsowhat book do you use? Local or online? My lines are completely different than yours or what Mrod111 is using. My lines are set to incent the bettor to bet the YES, but yours are more NO. In other words, if i used two different books and bet YES only on mine and used yours for only NOs, id end up better off in the end. 

Thoughts?

Your info is much appreciated. Fascinating! Good luck today. 

Hansel
 
Captain
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Posted: #11
Thanks hansel. 1st 5 innings total is probably just as correlated but finding historical data on 1st 5 innings totals is next to impossible. My full game total database contains the last 2800+ games. I use 5dimes, bovada and betus..
 
Captain
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Posted: #12
Finished the night 6-5, +8.85 units on a night where the YES went 5-10.  54-26, +51.35 units over the last 10 days.  Will have more plays later today.

GL
 
Captain
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Posted: #13
*+7.85 units last night, not +8.85.
 
Banned
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Posted: #14
TOTALGUY    I AM SORRY  I AM NOT BEING A DICK, BUT LASTNIGHT  THERE WERE 10 GAMES THAT HAD NO RUNS IN THE 1ST........HOW DID YOU MANAGE TO PULL OFF A POSITIVE NIGHT, IF YOU ARE BETTING THAT THERE WILL BE RUNS........I AM A LITTLE CONFUSED.......REMEMBER I AM NOT TRYING TO BE A JERKOFF,  I AM JUST ASKING. BECAUSE YOU KNOW ME I LIKE THE NO RUNS BET.....IN THE 1ST.....FEEDBACK PLEASE.
 
Captain
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Posted: #15
Very simple.  Just look at my plays for yesterday.  9 YESs, 2 NOs. Went 1-0 on my 3 unit plays and 4-0 on my 2 unit plays.
 
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Posted: #16
THERE WERE ONLY 5 GAMES THAT HAD RUNS IN THE 1ST IN YESTERDAY.  THAT'S WHERE I AM CONFUSED IF YOU BET THAT THERE WILL BE A RUN SCORED IN THEM IT'S NEARLY IMMPOSSIBLE...I AM NOT BEING A DICK JUST STILL CONFUSED.
 
Captain
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Posted: #17
Let me try this again.  I had 11 plays, 9 of them were YES bets and 2 of them were NO bets.  I went 4-5, +2.85 units on the YES bets and 2-0, +5.0 units on the NO bets for a total of 6-5, +7.85 units overall. 
 
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Posted: #18
SORRY,  BRO  MY  FAULT  JUST  WOKE UP  DID NOT  HAVE COFFEE YET.  EYES ARE NOT OPEN ALL THE WAY.....MY  BAD.......JUST READ THROUGH THIS SHIT TOOOO QUICK.....GOODLUCK TODAY......NICE DAY YESTERDAY MAN.
 
Captain
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Posted: #19
No problem.  It's been a great 10 day run.

GL
 
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Posted: #20
YES IT HAS,   KEEP THOSE POCKETS FULL OF 
 
 
Veteran
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Posted: #21
This is the first time i ve seen this thread and I like the yes/no runs bet as well.... Im 50% -a couple of units in this kind of bet this season. ..this info looks good! Hope it lasts! Bol today


Any plays today?
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