Friday, 10/11 - MLB

1-1 last night

11-8 playoffs

Padres at Dodgers

The previously loose Padres will be tighter than my Laffy Taffy budget after my last glucose reading. The Divine ones are shell-shocked and did not expect to be in this position. They will Friar tuck on the way back to the dugout after another failed mission.

My Friars Future bet will unfortunately go up in flames tonight as the Dodger Dog Devils ruin my +900 rapture.

The last time the Fathers won two in a row at Vin Skully Stadium was April 2021. 

I can’t believe a team with Muncy, Smith and Lux is moving on, but so it shall be done.

Tired of it. 

Dodgers ML -142

Good luck!

@Sladerunningfox

 Padres are 4-1 off a shut off loss playing the same team. Last sequence was in May when Padres won by 1, lost to a shut out then came back with a shut out of their own.

Youve been following shut out loss trends all season. How come you skipped this one? 

Well something’s gotta give cause last time dodgers won 2 str8 playoff games was in 2021

@monkeebooger

Monkee, I didn’t follow it Wednesday when I took the Tigers and won and yesterday when I took the Tigers and lost.

I could see the look of dread in the Padres after that loss Wednesday. They looked demoralized like they blew their opportunity…and they did!

On paper, I think Padres have the better team, but Dodgers aren’t losing the final game at home…with Mookie finally hitting and Muncy, Smith and Lux breaking out 4/13 (.308) with 6 runs scored and 4 RBI’s.

With all the analytics in baseball, I can’t believe Shildt started Cease on 3 days rest. Isn’t the winning percentage around 39% on 3 days rest? This was the knock-out punch.

Anyway, I just have a feeling it’s not going to go the Padres way tonight. My Friars Future hopes I am wrong.

"With all the analytics in baseball, I can’t believe Shildt started Cease on 3 days rest. Isn’t the winning percentage around 39% on 3 days rest? This was the knock-out punch."

That's because Schildt wanted Yu to pitch game 5, not Cease and that was the way around the dilemma if Perez had started game 4 instead.

I think Sladerunningfox is right. For what it's worth, since the new playofff format was instituted in 2022, we have had only one Division series prior to this one reach a deciding Game 5, and that series was remarkably similar to this one between the Padres and the Dodgers. In 2022 the Yankees won Game 1 at home against Cleveland and then dropped Game 2. They lost 6-5 in Game 3 but saved their season with a 4-2 win in Game 4. Then they returned to Yankee Stadium for Game 5 and easily handled Cleveland by a score of 5-1.

That is true, but none of those quick revenge games involved a change of venue. The Padres were 4-5 overall this season off a shutout loss, losing all four times when their next opponent was a different team. Interestingly, the Padres were blanked only once since the All-Star break after getting shutout eight times before the break. That's why I think Sladerunningfox is again correct when he said that the Padres have to be shell-shocked to be in this position. When the Dodgers had no starting pitcher to go in Game 4 and announced they were going instead with a bullpen effort, and also announced that Freddie Freeman wouldn't play, it looked like Game 4 would be a big clinching party at Petco Park. So for the Padres to not only lose that potential clinching game, but to get blowon out - and not just blown out, but shut out - that had to have shaken their confidence. 

@MrBator

 Disagree. Cease at only -135 at home clinching was as sharp of a fade as it gets against bullpen game and no Freeman.

Padres will prevail today 

@MrBator

 How were the mighty #1 NL seed dodgers only -140ish for series win before it began? That alone should raise concerns 

I believe 26 of 31 teams who took a 2-1  series lead in this current format have won the series.

They finished just 5 games ahead of the Padres, and everyone knew the Dodgers were running low on viable starting pitchers at season's end. 

@smellybunty

 Wow interesting. That’s 84%