Posted:
#1
Happy Friday!!!!
2-0 yesterday (+5.13u)
4-4 overall (+2.56u)
Risking 1u on Orioles at -125 to win 0.8u
This is not one of my stronger plays but I think the Orioles are being a tad undervalued here. Had line projection at -155 to Orioles. Tillman has been a better pitcher this year than Eovaldi particularly at home where he has a 2.04 ERA to Eovaldi's 3.52 ERA on the road. Also another noticeable stat are dead last in the league in L7 days in OBP at .244. Orioles numbers are currently .332 OBP vs righties and .334 in L7 days that's a significant difference. The Orioles also have an advantage in relief pitching with a 2.75 ERA vs the Yankees 3.72 ERA. With all of this said I think the Orioles should be bigger favorites today. Going to throw a unit on this game.
Risking 1u on Blue Jays to win 1.55u at +155
The Price is wrong...get it. David Price is a big name who hasn't produced this year and he's generating price on his name. If you look at the numbers Dickey is out-performing Price so far this year. Call 10 games a small sample size but I tend to better based on how a pitcher is performing now vs historically. You could argue that the Sox are a better hitting team and the numbers would argue that with Boston's .358 OBP vs righties. But the Jays are not significantly far behind in that category particularly against left handed pitchers and they go into a hitters ballpark today. I had this line valued at Red Sox -135. Blue Jay at +155 is value and going to throw a unit on it.
Risking 2u on Mariners at +125 to win 2.5u
Big name pitcher getting big value here. Walker for the Mariners has been fairly solid this year posting a 3.31 ERA in 10 outtings and 2.77 ERA on the road, the only negative was he has been a little rocky lately 4.91 ERA in May. Darvish had one start and HE ONLY PITCHED 5 innings. The rangers are going to continue to monitor his pitch count from what it sounds like so it's unlikely he goes deep into this game. I'm expecting 5-6 innings tops. What's even more appealing and SHOULD NOT BE OVERLOOKED is that the Rangers relief pitching has struggled this year ranking second to last with a 5.21 ERA. The Mariners are possessing a 2.87 ERA in relief on the other hand. Another thing I like is the Mariners have a .344 OBP this year and .387 OBP in last 7 days. The Rangers have a .310 OBP vs righties and a .295 OBP over last 7. Really love this play taking Mariners at +125 for two units. I had this line as Mariners -110 especially given what i'm hearing about Darvish not going deep into this game.
Risking 1u on Giants at -106 to win 0.94u
A couple of big name pitchers here. Cueto has been excellent this year. 2.31 ERA over 10 outtings, 2.61 ERA on the road, 2.03 ERA in May. Wainwright on the other hand 5.71 ERA in 10 outtings, 4.75 ERA at home, 4.62 ERA in May. Cueto has the advantage in the numbers department this year there's no doubting that. If you compare hittings it's about equal. Relief pitching about equal. Had Giants as favorites at -130 simply based on the starting pitchers and the success Cueto has had. Going to throw one unit on Giants here.
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