Posted:
#1
Possible Lineup Change:
More often than not, Gardenhire sits Mauer in day games following a night game the previous evening. This means Drew Butera batting 8th... behind, yes, behind Nick Punto (stranger than fiction, I know).
Butera is batting .091 away from the new stadium in his rookie year, and the team is 2-9 when he starts. 7 hits all season. Interestingly bad hitter.
Twins hitting:
Morneau and Span are both 10 for 22 over the first five games of the road trip. Punto is a shocking 6 for 16. Span is making terrible baserunning mistakes.
Morneau - 7 R, 2 HR, 6 RBI
Span - 5 R, 1 HR, 2 RBI
Pitching:
Blackburn resulted in a 5-2 record for the Twins when he went 7+ IP, but hasn't won on the road since May 16th.
When the Twins give Blackburn 5 or more runs in support, the Twins are 7-1. When they don't, they are 1-5.
Considering the Twins are on an offensive tear right now, it looks good for Blackburn to get the support that could let him stay deep into the game. Unlike previous outings, he should get a little more leeway thanks to the recent production from the 3-6 spots in the lineup.
Really liking the over 8.5 here with respectable hitting in both lineups and suspect pitching. Earlier this year Twins hitters rattled hit after hit against Gallardo in the 1st, to the tune of:
Span flies out to center -> Hudson infield single ->
Mauer single to center (Hudson to 2nd) ->
Morneau single to center (Hudson scored, Mauer to 2nd) ->
Cuddyer double to deep left (Mauer scored, Morneau to 3rd) ->
Kubel IBB ->
Young walked (forced home a run) ->
Plouffe sac fly (Cuddyer scored, Kubel to 3rd) ->
Punto strikes out.
Wouldn't be surprised to see an inning like that from each side in the 1st 5 Innings... and I kinda like the 1st 5 Innings over 5 runs at +115.
If your book has a prop bet stacking up Braun v Mauer for total bases (5dimes has Mauer -110 and Braun -120 right now) and you think, like I do, that there's a good chance Butera will be playing... go for it.
Braun is .600 in 10 AB against Blackburn with 3 doubles, while Mauer is at .667 in only 3 AB against Gallardo, and hasn't been making the same contact he was a month ago (especially coming off the bench to PH for Butera late in games).
Both the bullpens have a great shot to blow the game late.. example, Gallardo's last outing he finished after 6 IP, 9 Ks and at one point a 4-1 lead. Pen gave up 7 runs in 2 IP, but to their credit the Brew crew did rally for 3 in the 9th, falling just short.
Honestly the only plays for me are some prop bets, and the over for both 1st 5 (o5 +115) and full game (o8.5 -103 and o9 +120 both available on 5dimes).
Twins/Brewers total over 9, bet 10 to win 12
Twins/Brewers 1st 5 total over 5, bet 10 to win 11.5
Twins over 3.5 runs, bet 11.5 to win 10
Prop
Braun total bases > Mauer total bases, bet 6 to win 5
Parlay:
1. Twins over 3.5 runs
2. Giants -.5 1st 5 Innings
Payout is 2.65:1
0
best of luck pal
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