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PHILADELPHIA +105 over Tampa Bay -- The obvious handicapping facts about these two starters is that Matt Garza has been spectacular in his last two starts and Moyer has been terrible. Garza beat the Red Sox twice as an underdog vs Jon Lester, winning 9-1 and 3-1. His WHIP in those two games were 1.50 and 0.71 respectively. Wow. Jamie Moyer, on the other hand, has struggled in his last two. He lasted four and one and two-thirds innings respectively. This, of course, in not "secret" information. Everyone knows this. The players, the handicappers and the linesmakers. This is not information for which you should be paying. This is why the Rays are a road favorite in Philadelphia.
To win money consistently, you have to know more than the obvious. You have to have information that is NOT known by the linesmakers. This is what gives you the edge. This is what give you line value. For example, the fact that the Rays are 0-7 their last seven when Matt Garza starts as a favorite after a quality start is not well known. That's right - seven straight losses as a favorite and all the games are from this season.
In the recently concluded 2008 season, Matt Garza had five starts in which he had a WHIP of less than one. In his next start, the Rays are 0-5 even though they were the favorite in three of the five games.
Yes, the Rays have won Garza's last two starts. However, the Rays are a terrible 0-10 when their line is within twenty cents of pick and they won their starter's last two starts, as long as at least one of the two starts was at home. All the games are from THIS season and the Rays have lost by an average of a staggering 4.7 runs per game. Tampa lost EVERY SINGLE GAME by multiple runs and they were the favorite in seven of the ten. In other words, the reason most bettors are playing ON the Rays is exactly the reason why you should be playing AGAINST them. This is the definition of line value and it is the reason why we are #1 in net profit in baseball.
Continuing, we note that the Phillies hitters combined to strand a whopping 26 batters in game two of this series, compared with only 11 for the Rays. We look for Philadelphia to capitalize on their opportunities here, as they are 5-0 as a dog after a loss in which they had more team-left-on-base than their opponent, winning by an average of 4.6 runs per game. That's five straight multiple-run wins as a dog.
The Phillies did not get to where they are by not supporting a struggling pitcher. Philadelphia is the best team in the league when they are a dog and their starter is off a bad outing. Specifically, Philadelphia is 10-0 as a DOG when their starter went less than four innings and allowed fewer than four walks in his last start. They won every game by multiple runs ever though they were the dog every time. Today's starter, Moyer, was the winning pitcher in four of the ten qualifying games.
Of course, in baseball, many things can happen during the game. Despite the above analysis, The Phillies are not a "sure thing" to win this game. However, they certainly are the side on which to have your money.
To win money consistently, you have to know more than the obvious. You have to have information that is NOT known by the linesmakers. This is what gives you the edge. This is what give you line value. For example, the fact that the Rays are 0-7 their last seven when Matt Garza starts as a favorite after a quality start is not well known. That's right - seven straight losses as a favorite and all the games are from this season.
In the recently concluded 2008 season, Matt Garza had five starts in which he had a WHIP of less than one. In his next start, the Rays are 0-5 even though they were the favorite in three of the five games.
Yes, the Rays have won Garza's last two starts. However, the Rays are a terrible 0-10 when their line is within twenty cents of pick and they won their starter's last two starts, as long as at least one of the two starts was at home. All the games are from THIS season and the Rays have lost by an average of a staggering 4.7 runs per game. Tampa lost EVERY SINGLE GAME by multiple runs and they were the favorite in seven of the ten. In other words, the reason most bettors are playing ON the Rays is exactly the reason why you should be playing AGAINST them. This is the definition of line value and it is the reason why we are #1 in net profit in baseball.
Continuing, we note that the Phillies hitters combined to strand a whopping 26 batters in game two of this series, compared with only 11 for the Rays. We look for Philadelphia to capitalize on their opportunities here, as they are 5-0 as a dog after a loss in which they had more team-left-on-base than their opponent, winning by an average of 4.6 runs per game. That's five straight multiple-run wins as a dog.
The Phillies did not get to where they are by not supporting a struggling pitcher. Philadelphia is the best team in the league when they are a dog and their starter is off a bad outing. Specifically, Philadelphia is 10-0 as a DOG when their starter went less than four innings and allowed fewer than four walks in his last start. They won every game by multiple runs ever though they were the dog every time. Today's starter, Moyer, was the winning pitcher in four of the ten qualifying games.
Of course, in baseball, many things can happen during the game. Despite the above analysis, The Phillies are not a "sure thing" to win this game. However, they certainly are the side on which to have your money.
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